Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Democrats Get More Votes but Republicans Win House of Representatives

It's really important who wins elections in years ending in zero.  Those are the years the U.S. Census is taken, and the Census forms the basis upon which every state's election districts are drawn.  The fact that Republicans did so well in the 2010 "off-year" (non-presidential) election meant that with newly-won control of many state legislatures and governorships, they were able to redraw election districts so as to maximize their chances of winning as many seats as possible.

A party does this by packing as many residents of the other party into a few districts where they have large majorities, and giving themselves perhaps less decisive but still safe majorities in as many of the rest of the districts as they can.  This practice is called "gerrymandering," named after Elbridge Gerry, a Massachusetts politician famous (or perhaps notorious) for perfecting this strategem in his state in the early 1800s.   See the famous Boson Gazette cartoon of the "gerrymander."

Most people who keep up with the news know that Republicans have retained control of the House of Representatives.  What few know, however, is that although a handful of close races are still to be decided based on absentee and provisional ballots, it appears that Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives actually out polled their Republican rivals nationally this year by more than 550,000 votes.  The current tally is 53,952,240 for Democratic candidates and 53,402,643 for Republicans.  Out of the more than 107 million votes that is a narrow percentage victory of 50.26% to 49.74%.  If the seats were awarded proportionally the Democrats would have 219 seats and the Republicans 216.  But instead, thanks to gerrymandering, Speaker John Boehner and his Republicans will have a comfortable 235-200 advantage. 

Take Ohio, for example.  President Obama won a 1.9% victory there statewide, and Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown prevailed for re-election by 5.2%.  But 12 of the Buckeye state's 16 congressional districts went to Republicans, thanks to the way the districts were set up.  Check it out here.  In Pennsylvania the case was much the same.  Obama won there by 5.2% and Democratic Senator Bob Casey was re-elected by 8.9%.  Yet 13 of Pennsylvania's 18-member congressional delegation will be Republicans.  Here's the source for Pa

In both these states, Republicans got governors and legislative majorities elected during the 2010 wave and put these to good partisan use in drawing election maps skewed to their interest.  It will be exceedingly difficult for the Democrats to gain congressional majorities in either state, or those like them until at least 2020, and then only if they do well in the elections that year.  It's a quirk of the American electoral system, and it certainly makes not only winning, but when you win, of paramount importance. 

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