Election Race Analysis: 9 Days Out

Here's the promised "horse race" analysis 9 days before the election.  The fallout from the three presidential and one vice presidential debates has had its effect and the race has stabilized into its final contours.  In a nutshell, President Obama retains has the electoral college advantage and the inside track for re-election, but Mitt Romney remains close and still has a reasonable chance to win.

We start with the states where one candidate has a big and likely insurmountable lead.  For Obama that's 18 states and the District of Columbia for 237 electoral votes (EVs).  Romney has 23 states worth 191 EVs securely in his column.  That leaves 9 states worth 110 EVs still up for grabs.  With 538 total EVs at stake, it takes 270 to win the White House.  So Obama needs 33 of those still-to-be-won 110 EVs while Romney would need 79 of them.  You can easily see that is a steeper hill for the challenger.  So let's look more closely at those remaining nine states.  

Three of the tossup states are leaning fairly strongly to one side.  These are North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin.  Recent polls give Romney a consistent 3.8% average margin in the race for North Carolina's 15 EVs.  Obama has twin 2.3% leads in Wisconsin (10 EV) and Nevada (6), and observers rate the Obama turnout operations strong in those states as well.  So let's put these three states in their respective columns.  That brings Obama to 253 and Romney to 206.

That leaves us, barring major unforeseen news developments or surprising statewide election upsets, with 6 states totalling 79 EVs that will decide the next president.  Obama needs 17 EVs out of this group and Romney needs 64.  From most to least EVs they are:

Florida, 29 EV.  Romney has to have Florida.  If Obama wins the Sunshine State it's game over.  Recent polls give Romney an average of a 1.8% edge.  It was nip and tuck until the first debate, after which Romney took the small lead he still holds.  The subsequent debates stalled Romney's surge, but Obama has not been able to reverse it.  It's still close but Florida is a big state, and the bigger they are the harder they are to turn around.  Romney has a pretty strong chance to win here, probably over 60%.

Ohio, 18 EV.  Romney has to have Ohio, too.  But it doesn't look good for him.  Obama holds a 1.9% average lead in the state both campaigns are visiting the most and spending more money in than any other.  The Buckeye State is Obama's firewall.  As long as he stays ahead here he is assured of victory.  That's why both sides will spare no expense or effort in Ohio in the last nine days.  Watch this call closely on Election Night, because it may tell the story early.  

Virginia, 13 EV.  Obama had a narrow lead until the first debate, when Romney went ahead.  Since then it has been moving back Obama's way.  The average of recent polls shows Virginia as a dead even tie, though two of three recent polls give Obama the edge.  Expect this one to linger a long time before the networks call it on Election Night.  It's the Washington, D.C. suburbs in the Northern part of Virginia for the President against the more conservative Southern part of the Old Dominion for the GOP.  If Obama loses Ohio this is his next best line of defense.  If Romney takes Florida and Ohio, a win here starts to make his chances for the presidency look good.

Colorado, 9 EV.  Like Virginia, the latest polling average finds Colorado as a dead heat.  Also like Virginia, it's a state where Obama had a pre-debate advantage, Romney reversed that, and now it's back to even.  The most recent surveys are going Obama's way. 

Iowa, 6 EV.  Obama is up 2.3% in recent poll averages, and the latest surveys continue to show a narrow Obama lead.

New Hampshire, 4 EV.  The average has Obama in the lead by only 1.4% in a small state, so that's not many people.  The latest polls are on both sides, too, some showing Romney ahead and others Obama.  This one could really go either way. 

To sum up, Obama wins if he takes Florida or Ohio.  He can also win by prevailing in Virginia and any one of the smaller states of Colorado, Iowa or Hew Hampshire.  If Romney were to take Florida, Ohio and Virginia, Obama would have to win all three of the smaller states to hold his job.  To sum it all up statistically, as it currently stands Obama has better than a 70% likelihood of winning the election, and Romney a little less than 30%. 

For a look at some good sources, go to the FiveThirtyEight or Real Clear Politics web sites.