After Alabama and Mississippi: The Road Ahead

Results are now in for today's Republican presidential primaries in Mississippi and Alabama.  In both races, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum came in first, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich came in a close second and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney came in third, a few percentage points back.  Representative Ron Paul finished far back in fourth place with single-digit percentages of the vote in both states. Look up the specific numbers here.

Here's what it means: For Rick Santorum, it is great news.  He has now firmly assumed the role of the main conservative alternative to Romney.  For Newt Gingrich, the air has officially left his balloon.  If the Southern regional candidate cannot win in the South, then what is his rationale for going on?  He was close, but in his home region he needed better.  Gingrich announced he would stay in the race but we are likely to see his numbers rapidly deflate in upcoming contests.  For Mitt Romney it was another opportunity lost.  He remains the front runner, but also remains vulnerable.  Wins in both Southern states would have basically locked up the nomination for him.  A win in one would have put his opponents on life support.  Instead, the fight will go on.  For Paul, the handwriting is on the wall as he slips into irrelevance.

Even if Gingrich stays in the race, his power to siphon votes away from Santorum, now the Un-romney, will have been severely weakened.  Santorum will get a better shot at a true one on one against him next Tuesday in Illinois.   A Romney victory would once again fire up his inevitability train and could well lead to putting the nomination effectively in his pocket by mid-April.  Romney will outspend Santorum by several magnitudes to one, but the Pennsylvanian will have the heart of the social conservatives.  It will be a real showdown on March 20.  If Santorum can win, expect panic in the GOP establishment.  He came close in Ohio and Michigan, so this is a real possibility with fewer anti-Romney votes being split with Gingrich.   

A Santorum victory in Illinois is a real possibility and could well lead to either a wild race to the finish between the two or even a war of attrition in which neither secures the necessary delegates to hold a majority when the party convention opens in Tampa.  The first brokered convention since 1952 would certainly be a sight to see, and not one for the squeamish.