Demystifying Syria

Demonstrations for freedom and democracy began in Syria as an outgrowth of last year's "Arab Spring" movement.  Syrian demonstrators began taking to the streets in late January 2011 and gathered strength in March, following the successful liberalization movements in Tunisia and Egypt and while the Libyan effort was still underway.  While most Americans are aware of the turmoil in Syria, especially now that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is speaking out strongly in favor of the rebels, the overall situation seems rather confusing.  There are indeed several levels of complexity, both from the mix of different groups inside Syria and from the intricacies of international politics.  I'll try to shed some light on things.

You can learn quite a bit about the country from the U.S. State Department site on Syria.  It's strategically important because it is situated on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea next to Israel and Lebanon.  It also borders Iraq, Jordan and regional power Turkey.  Protests arose in Syria as a result of its repressive governmental regime.  Though ostensibly a republic, Syria is in actuality an authoritarian one-party state that has labored under the grip of the Assad family since 1970, when Air Force Colonel and Defense Minister Hafez al-Assad seized power in a coup.  The Ba'ath (Arab Socialist Renaissance) Party runs the show, enforced by a security apparatus that operates outside the bounds of the constitutional legal system.  Upon Assad's death in 2000 he was succeeded by his Western-educated son Bashar. 

There was quite a bit of hope of reform when Bashar took over, given his Western training and public relations charm offensive upon taking over the government.  But disapointment in his continuation of police-state ruthlessness combined with economic stagnation and the examples of other Arab people throwing off oppressive regimes finally led to upheaval in Syria.  What began as peaceful protests and demonstrations was met by increasingly brutal force from police elements and even the military.  Finally, defections from army units by soldiers unwilling to fire on their own people led to an armed resistance to Assad's crackdown.  The city of Homs, population 1.7 million, has been surrounded and unceasingly shelled by Syrian Army units for  weeks.  An estimated 9,000 people have been killed throughout the country by regime forces. See video here.       

In addition to the objection to dictatorship and police-state control, religious division is part of the equation in Syria too.  Syria is a majority-Muslim nation, and about 74% of the nation's 22.5 million people follow mainline Sunni Islam.   Another 10% are Christians.  The Assads, however, are members of the secretive Allawi sect, to which about 12% of Syrians adhere.  Allawites claim to be Muslims, basing their views on Ali, a cousin of Muhammad from whom the group derives its name, but many Sunnis see them as heretics against traditional Islam.  Though Sunnis and Christians are carefully included in the Assad Ba'ath power structure at lower levels, Allawites close to the Assads dominate all the higher echelon posts.  A desire to break minority Allawi control of the state is an important contributing factor to the anti-government movement.

The tangled international situation regarding Syria can be confusing as well.  Though the Assad regime has been condemned and asked to resign by the Arab League and the United Nations General Assembly and subjected to economic sanctions by the United States and the European Union for its murderous crackdown on its own citizens, Russia and China have used their U.N. Security Council vetoes to prevent U.N. sanctions or possible military intervention.  Many wonder why.  It is part of a larger power struggle of alignments playing out across the region.  As a fellow pariah regime, Syria has allied itself with Iran, providing its services as a conduit of support for the Iranian-sponsored terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon.  Without much oil itself, the Syrian regime felt the need for a wealthy benefactor, and Iran has filled the bill.  Cozying up to Iran had already put Syria out of the good graces of the United States and Europe.  But what is more, it also incurred the hostility of Sunni Muslim Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Egypt, who not only disagree religiously with Iran's Shia version of Islam but fear Iran's apparent drive to develop a nuclear weapon which could be used to intimidate or even attack them.  Arabs also feel no ethnic affinity for Iranians, who are Persians and not Arabs.

Russia and China are so far sticking up for Syria, in a gambit to prevent increasing Western inroads into the Middle East and to try to enhance their own leverage.  Part of this is due to Chinese dependence on Iranian oil.  But also in the calculation is the thought that if the pro-Iranian Syrian government goes down that could mean another pro-Western nation in the region, isolating Iran and Russian and Chinese influence even further.  It wouldn't be surprising to see Sunni arms getting into Syria to aid the rebels soon, perhaps through Jordan.  If Turkey were to similarly cooperate it would quickly spell curtains for Assad and his regime--unless Russia and/or China came to his aid.  That would be a perilous situation indeed, for it could run the risk of a great-power confrontation.