Election Night Guide: The Big 12

If you're like me you're an election night junkie. I can't wait to watch the returns come in from all the states. The problem can be sensory overload. Here's a systematic approach to help you make sense of it all and give you a good picture of how things are turning out. Though thirty states and the District of Columbia will be closing their polls by 5:30 PST, you can probably get a good handle on things by paying attention to just 12 states in the first couple of hours. After that you can begin celebrating, commiserating or curling up with a good book for the rest of the evening as your wont suits you. If you'd like to see the polling hours for every state click here.

But if you're not that ambitious, here's what to look for. I'll call them the Big 12 of 2008. All times are PST, since I'm a Californian.

3:00 P.M.
1. Indiana President, 11 Electoral Votes. McCain desperately needs this tossup state. The polls say he currently leads by half a point. If it gets called early for Obama it likely means he's on his way to election. Anything else means "stay tuned."
2. Kentucky Senator. Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell leads challenger Bruce Lunsford by 5-6 points. If this is too close to call it's a bad sign for Republicans generally. This is one of three strongly contested Southern GOP senate seats. If the Dems can pick up any of them they have a good chance of reaching 60 seats in the senate and having the votes to block any filibusters.

4:00 P.M.
3. Virginia President, 13 EV. Obama has been running strong here but McCain has been narrowing the gap in recent days. Several recent polls have Obama up by 4%. If the Old Dominion is called early for Obama it's not necessarily fatal for McCain but it's very bad for him. It would mean McCain would absolutely have to take Pennsylvania at 5:00 or go down. If it's called early for McCain we have a horse race.
4. Florida President, 27 EV. The Sunshine State is another desperate must-have state for McCain. Obama's been running a little better than 3 points ahead. If that holds the O-crew can start popping the champagne. If McCain's neck and neck or slightly ahead he stays alive. Watch where the returns are coming from. Obama should do best in the South and McCain in the North.
5. Mississippi Senator. Republican Roger Wicker was barely ahead of Democrat Ronnie Musgrove until recently starting to pull away. This is another of the three Southern Republican senate seats the Dems feel they have a chance to win to reach 60. This one looks unlikely, but if Musgrove is in the hunt it bodes well for Dems in all the down-ticket races.
6. New Hampshire President, 4 EV, and Senator. McCain has spent a lot of time here at the end of the campaign. This is the state that gave him an early lead against Bush in 2000 and revived his candidacy in 2008. All the latest numbers show Obama ahead by 10 or more, so if McCain is in the running here when New Hampshire's polls close it would show a catastrophic trend for Obama. Democrat Jeanne Shaheen appears poised to take a senate seat away from John Sununu here by double digits too. Just take a quick glance to see if the results are going according to expectations in both these races. If not then we may have a Truman-Dewey situation developing.

4:30 P.M.
7. Ohio President, 20 EV. This is another one McCain has to win "or else." Obama had pulled ahead by about 6 but recent surveys show his lead cut to 3 or 4. If that trend continues it could be a nailbiter. But again, as in Florida, if the Illinoisan grabs and maintains that lead or bigger then the handwriting is on the wall for McCain. The man from Arizona has to win everywhere things are close, and nowhere more so than here.
8. North Carolina President, 15 EV, and Senator. Here is another normally solid Republican state that has been trending more Democratic. Obama still clings to a slim half-a-percent lead in the Tarheel State. McCain will have to put this one in his win column to stay alive. If he loses North Carolina he will almost surely lose Virginia too. So again, it's another one of those places where Obama can administer the knockout blow with a victory and McCain must win to have any chance. I tend to think McCain will pull this one out. The Senate race is important here too. Longtime GOP incumbent Elizabeth Dole has been trailing Democrat Kay Hagan by a growing margin which is now up to five. Dole has begun egregious smear ads in the past couple of days. If Dole hangs on the rest of the Southern Republicans are likely to also.

5:00 P.M.
9. Pennsylvania President, 21 EV. If things are still up in the air after the 4:30 states Pennsylvania will weigh in decisively at 5:00. This is McCain's only real hope for turning a 2004 Kerry state Republican to make up for the probable loss of Western states like Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico later in the evening. Obama led in the Keystone State by around 12 a week ago, but McCain and Palin have spent and campaigned furiously since. Still, recent polls continue to show Obama with 6 and 7 point leads with two days left and McCain's curve rising too slowly to complete the chase in time. But those are polls. Don't go away at 5:00 when Pennsylvania's exit polls and actual results start coming in. It seems unlikely McCain can catch up, and if he doesn't he is dead in the water. But if somehow he does or he's within, say 2%, then all bets are off and anything can happen. That is, of course, presuming that Obama isn't already carrying Florida or Ohio, or North Carolina and Virgina, or either of them and Indiana.
10. Georgia President, 15 EV, and Senator. Georgia is a state where Obama has made a late surge, pulling to within 3% in recent days. African-American early voting is massive. If Obama is winning here then Virginia and North Carolina are probably going his way too and he wins in a landslide. McCain simply must hold Georgia. The Senate race is tight too. This is the Democrats' best chance to defeat one of the three seemingly vulnerable Southern Republican senators besides Dole and get to 60 seats. Saxby Chambliss leads Democratic hopeful Jim Martin by only 2%. It's a heavy blow for the GOP in congress if Chambliss falls.
11. Missouri President, 11 EV. Missouri's electoral votes typically go for the presidential winner, so the Show-Me State is often referred to as a "bellwether." Obama had established about a 3-point lead last week, but McCain caught him on Halloween and now both candidates' support is dropping a bit, as though the voters are stepping back to make up their minds. McCain leads by less than one point. It's another case of almost "have to have" for McCain and "would be nice to have" for Obama. Just keep in mind that although Obama doesn't have to win any one of these medium-size states in particular, he does have to win one of them somewhere, especially if McCain takes Pennsylvania.
12. North Dakota President, 3 EV. Believe it or not, the Great Plains capstone is a dead-even tie. There are electoral vote scenarios close enough that North Dakota's 3 (and neighboring Montana's, where McCain leads narrowly) could be what decides the election. If Obama is ahead here he's probably doing well in neighboring Montana, which reports at 7:00, too. Those combined 6 electoral votes could be crucial if the race is extremely close.