Prospect for Ukraine

I write this on Day 5 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainians are inspiring the world with their much stronger than expected resistance to the Russian onslaught. It is absolutely certain that Putin will not countenance defeat or withdrawal. He's put his chips in and can never be seen to back down. I foresee continuing stiffening Ukrainian resistance as more of our wondrous precision weaponry reaches them, leading to heavier and heavier Russian losses such as the burning columns of T-72s and APCs we have already seen on video. This will multiply Putin's rage and the Russian Army's humiliation such that their campaign will become ever more brutal. 

We've already seen this model before with Putin in Chechnya and Syria. Cities that successfully resist will be heavily struck, then as frustration grows, leveled. Expect Kharkiv and Kiev to be turned fairly soon into piles of rubble. As the Germans discovered at Stalingrad, however, bombed out urban landscapes are extremely perilous places for offensive operations, with roads blocked and innumerable places for defenders to hide and ambush. Russian losses will swell. Still, their preponderance is great, and they will grind forward, and at length, conquer the whole of a devastated Ukraine. 

From what I've seen thus far, that will not be the end of the war. Ukrainian spirit is strong. The Russian occupiers will become bogged down in a widespread and effective insurgency. The resistance will be very well-supplied. Even neutral Sweden has pledged to send lethal weaponry. Think of that. Russian losses will be quite heavy on an ongoing basis. A steady stream of hundreds and thousands of body bags will be brought home for funerals attended by grieving relatives and friends. All the while, sanctions will be sapping the Russian economy. Videos will show dead children. Its pariah status will grow. Boycotts will dry up its exports. The ruble is already crashing. The cost of occupying the ruined Ukraine and fighting the insurgency will not be offset by the seizure of the Ukrainian economy, since much of it will be in ruins. 

The Russian economy, about 8% the size of America's, will crack under the strain. As privation and war weariness grow, anti-Putin demonstrations in Russia will become larger and increasingly more defiant. I wouldn't be surprised to see the denouement to this classic Shakespearean tragedy end with footage of Putin's blood-spattered carcass sprawled across the marbled floor of one of the Kremlin's ornately appointed halls, the victim of a coup engineered by an alliance of disaffected oligarchs and the top army brass, the former's fortunes and the latter's pride having been drastically depleted by Putin's grand overreach. 

On the Anniversary of the Attempted Overthrow of American Democracy

Today I print a letter by my friend Jeff Deiss to his Senators and Congressman. It is a letter which I wholeheartedly support. I will be sending similar letters to my congressional delegation as well. I invite you to do the same.

A year ago was the darkest day in American democracy in my lifetime.  The real possibility that a strongman would be able to override two centuries of gradually improving American democracy was shocking, something I never believed possible.  It seems clear that 2021’s ultimately successful transition of power to a democratically-elected Administration has not been enough to assure that the processes in place can be comfortably depended upon going forward.  Many States have enacted laws that diminish the rights of voters and the power of the majority of voters to see their choices honored.  A year later, the situation remains precarious, and the stakes remain high.  

Therefore I am writing to urge you to support a Senate rule change that will end the filibuster for a single bill on voting rights. 

I know that the filibuster rule has held a long and often honorable role in Senate deliberations, assuring that compromise and bipartisanship are used in enacting laws.  So I do not urge this lightly.  But the dangers to our democracy now transcend the importance of a traditional moderating rule of the Senate, however wise or respected.  

If the will of the people as expressed in free and fair elections is allowed to be compromised, our democracy is lost.  Given the choice between preserving our democracy or the filibuster, the decision must be to end the filibuster rule this once in favor of protecting voting rights. 

January 6 Commission and What's at Stake

The January 6 Committee is about to start hitting the country with absolutely damning information about what Trump and his team were up to before and during the insurrection. If we're fortunate it will destroy and discredit him. We'll have to see. Majorities of Americans already hold him culpable, according to a Washington Post University of Maryland poll released today. Republicans in general and his partisans in particular have drunk the cool aid. The New York Times editorial today said the nation is at an unprecedented critical juncture where a major national political party is openly attempting to thwart democracy and has resorted to violence to do it. This is true and we live in a fraught time. The Times editorial calls on everyone to fight against this. They call on the Democrats in the Senate to lift the filibuster so they can pass the elections and voting rights bills and safeguard democracy. They call on citizens to fight for fair elections and vote against those trying to corrupt them.

The two things to keep in mind are, first, that we are on the side of righteousness, and second, that we are the majority. Despite what you may see in Tulare County, remember, even there the Republican edge is shrinking, Devin Nunes' formerly easy 30-point wins fell to only 5 and 8 percent in his last two elections. So, I want you to keep some facts in mind. The Democratic candidate for president has gotten the most votes in 7 of the last 8 elections. The Republican candidate only got the most votes once in the last eight elections. It's been since 2004 that George W. Bush, a wartime incumbent (who himself had been elected with a minority of the votes thanks to the electoral college system in 2000) was the last GOP aspirant to get more votes than the Democrat. Clinton in 92 and 96, Gore in 2000, Obama in 2008 and 2012, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 all outpolled their Republican adversaries. The GOP candidate for president has gotten the most votes once in the past thirty years. Democratic Senators represent 35,000,000 more people than their Republican counterparts. Democrats beat Republican candidates in the national popular vote in the House by 8.6% in 2018 and by 3% in 2020. Republicans are not the majority. They are the minority. That is why they are now doubling their efforts to gerrymander like crazy and tip the election process against fairness and equality. They know most people are against them, and that stacking the deck is the only way they can win. 

John F. Kennedy said: "In the long history of the world only a few generations have been granted the role of defending freedom in its hour of maximum danger. I do not shrink from this responsibility-I welcome it." He referred to his generation's role in saving freedom from foreign totalitarianism in World War II and then the Cold War. Ours concerns saving it from would-be internal totalitarians. I admire what Kennedy did. It is our privilege to be called upon to fight this same recurring age-old battle in our own day. If we fail then what he and my dad did, along with millions of others, including the 400,000 who didn't come home and the hundreds of thousands who were maimed, did all that for nothing. And that just ain't good enough.

Dune a Must-See for Sci-Fi Fans

Just back from the new movie, "Dune," based on the Frank Herbert book. My God, I was blown away at how great it was. So was my show biz daughter, who's read the book a lot more recently than I have. It's rare to see a modern movie take its time, and this did, in perfect pace with the book. Faithful to the story, brilliantly directed and acted, some of the most unusual music you'll ever hear, because it's a different universe, and so incredibly effective at sustaining the story and mood. Hans Zimmer, the composer, is a genius. 

If you like the book you'll love the film. And also if so, you really need to see it now, while it's on the big screen. Some little phone, tablet, or even desktop image won't do it justice at all. This book presents one of the most difficult screen adaptations imaginable, and this movie is one of if not the best adaptations I've ever seen. The whole audience (ok, there were nine people in the theater) just sat there after it ended watching the credits roll for a good five minutes. That's how in awe everybody was.

Republican Party Becoming Overtly Fascist

The day they throw Liz Cheney out of the House leadership will be the signal that the old Republican Party has ended. It will still be called the Republican Party but will actually have become the American Fascist Party. Arch-conservative though she is, Cheney at least has the integrity to call a lie a lie and the truth the truth. Edmund Burke wrote that a political party without a platform is nothing but a conspiracy to seize power. That is what the Republican Party has become. 

All their efforts are directed to gain power without scruple at any cost. Lying, cheating, stacking the deck, Orwellian double-speak, welcoming foreign intervention, even armed insurrection have become simply tactical options for them. When the truth conflicts with the party line it is the truth that must be eliminated, as Ms. Cheney will be next week. Their intent is clear from their own statements and from the numerous voter suppression and election-rigging laws they are passing at the state and local levels with frantic haste. From where they are now it is but a short step to bribery, suppression of independent media, assassination and coup. 

When one major party in a republic abandons adherence to fair play and the rule of law and turns down the road to the pursuit of power at any cost, the endgame is invariably the same. We have seen it all before. Yes, it is happening here. Yes, it is happening now. And unless things drastically change, the next time the GOP gains control of the presidency and both houses of congress at the same time they will not be as undisciplined and disorganized as they were under Trump. Next time they will complete the job.

How Good Are the 2021 LA Dodgers?

A friend who is a Padres fan sent me an email saying he thinks the Dodgers of 2020-2021 are one of the truly great teams in baseball history, and asked for my evaluation of that statement, comparing today's LA team to the 1998 Yankees, the team he feels were the best team he ever saw since he started paying attention to baseball in the late 1950s. Today's blog shares with you my answer to him.

 

I do believe the current Dodgers are a great team. They were first in scoring and ERA, and by one of the biggest ratios ever. They're in a league with the 1936 Yankees in that regard.

A few things to keep in mind. The first thing is that the season will tell. They (LA) were on a 116 win pace last year, which would tie for best all time. But it was a very unusual year with the Covid situation. It's always tough to compare teams from different eras. The 1998 Yankees were first in runs and first in ERA in the league that year, so they were certainly great. They were also at the height of the steroid period, so their numbers have to be regarded as suspect.

Comparing rosters, C I think Will Smith can hit like Jorge Posada. 1B Max Muncy has more power than Tino Martinez, and walks like a madman, but Martinez hit for a higher average. Definitely at least comparable. 2B Chris Taylor is a better player than Chuck Knoblauch. SS Corey Seager can hit like Derek Jeter, and for more power. Seager is fine defensively but Jeter was better with the glove and stole bases too. They're both hall of fame caliber, but if I had to pick one it would be Jeter. 3B I'd take Justin Turner over Scott Brosius. LF Definitely AJ Pollock over Chad Curtis. CF Bernie Williams was a terrific player but I'll take the monstrous power and astounding defense Cody Bellinger brings. RF Again, Paul O'Neill was an excellent player but Mookie Betts is other-worldly. Like Jackie Robinson, he can (and regularly does) turn a game around all by himself. 

When you get to the pitching rotations, both are excellent. From most to least in innings pitched, the Yanks had Andy Pettitte 16-11 4.24, David Wells 18-4 3.49, David Cone 20-7 3.55, Hideki Irabu 13-9 4.06 and Orlando Hernandez 12-4 3.13.  I'll bet money that the quintet of Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias and Dustin May will beat the Yankee ERAs, and comparing across the board at least four of them will beat their Yankee counterparts head to head. 

As for the relief closers, the Kenley Jansen of 2017 (1.32 ERA, and earlier years) was as good as Rivera, but not any more. Mariano definitely gets the nod at closer.So, across the board, the 2021 LA Dodgers to me overall appear to be better than the 1998 Yankees. They are one of the most talented teams ever. Now they just have to keep proving that, on the field.

The DA Has Trump's Taxes

 The Manhattan District Attorney has received eight years of Donald Trump's tax returns pursuant to a Supreme Court order delivered to Trump's accountants, Mazars. It will take DA Cyrus Vance Jr.'s team awhile to go through the "millions of pages" of records. High on the list of objectives will be to see if the Trump Organization committed tax fraud by lowballing the value of his properties to the IRS while committing bank fraud by overvaluing them to banks for the purpose of securing loans. They will also try to establish whether Trump or the organization, under Trump's authority made illegal payments, such as the ones Trump's longtime "fixer" Michael Cohen made as hush money to buy the silence of women who claim to have had affairs with Trump. Cohen has served prison time for this offense, which he said Trump ordered and later reimbursed him.

For Trump, the clock is ticking.