My Response to Would-Be Senator Garvey

On February 27 I received an email from the Republican California US Senate candidate, Steve Garvey. Titled "We Can Win in California Again," it asked for a contribution to help Garvey defeat "radical Adam Schiff." The text of the email spent most of its verbiage castigating supposedly terrible conditions in America today. Here was my response to his email.

The dystopian picture you paint is so wrong it's comical. You were my favorite baseball player back in the 1970s, but not so good a candidate for the US Senate. The stock market is at an all-time high. Unemployment is at a 60-year low. Growth is at a 60-year high. More jobs have been created in the three years of Biden's presidency than in the eight years ofd any two-term president. Almost every economist predicted a recession in order to get inflation under control, and it hasn't happened. And now inflation is back under 3%. 

The Democrats take climate change seriously while the Republicans deny it. Biden got infrastructure done (bipartisanly), which the previous Republican administration utterly failed to do. The Democrats want to take common sense measures like keeping military assault rifles off the streets while Republicans want to make sure every would-be mass murderer has one. Republicans are denying women and gay people equal rights. The Democrats want to give essential aid to the heroic Ukrainian military resisting tyrannical Russian aggression, while the Republicans are holding it up. Republicans say they are for securing the border, but when a bipartisan committee of senators forged a compromise to do that, the Republicans in the House cravenly refused to put it up for a vote because the utterly corrupt former Republican president didn't want the issue to be solved while Biden was president. 

Republicans are so morally bankrupt they are about to nominate for president a man who has been convicted of bank fraud, insurance fraud, consumer fraud, tax fraud, embezzlement from a charity, and even rape, along with defamation of the woman he raped. His companies have been convicted of massive tax fraud, for which the CFO went to prison, and his former chief attorney was convicted of making illegal hush money payments to a porn star and went to prison. The attorney did this on Trump's orders and was reimbursed for the illegal payment by a check written byTrump himself. And I understand that you, Steve, voted for this career criminal twice. Anyone who has no more political courage or integrity than to do that is unworthy to represent me in the US Senate. I will remember fondly your exploits for my beloved Dodgers, but can only hope that you are trounced by an immense margin in your campaign for Senator.

Sincerely,

Steve Natoli

Stakes of Most Recent Trump Indictment

It's been a long time since I posted. This week's developments deserve a bit of commentary. On Tuesday August 1, 2023 ex-President Trump was indicted by the Justice Department for conspiring and acting to overthrow the election of 2020. Today he is being arraigned at a court in Washington, D.C. on four felony counts in connection with that case. 

You're going to see a lot of hocus pocus about whether Trump actually believed he had lost or the election had been stolen from him. That's the defense's main contention. But as Judd Legum says here, https://mail.yahoo.com/d/folders/1/messages/148187?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9hdHQteWFob28uYXR0Lm5ldC8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAC8E84D3ZosLuMXbRb7bPZ8Px-Qjn0UsnGob12q-FAjOeT2XV7X7OobyDu9i3qH-M4iPRlQ5o8YMykD9R3FpjiH6L7DjP1bGiRuK2OoqViZO8uQpUCI1Nb8bOj7CvtjXADh8ubjhGDM_-m4bq-mpGXWqRLnuDztJSflGi-7PYh5_, I feel that's irrelevant. Even if you think you were unfairly treated about something, that does not allow you to commit a crime to try to rectify it. There are legal channels, such as filing a lawsuit, to try to achieve that result. (Trump, by the way, filed 60, and lost them all.) Even if it's a fact he thought he was wronged, the legal remedy is not to establish fraudulent slates of Electors, threaten state election officials and the life of the Vice President, and send a mob to threaten to kill Congress if it doesn't do what you want. 

Trump is guilty. He is a monstrous canker on American society and its body politic. He will try to delay and obfuscate the trial to run out the clock, get re-elected, and order his Attorney General to dismiss the case. If he wins, he may even try to pardon himself. This must not be allowed to happen. The case must go forward, and Trump must be defeated again at the polls. The future of our republic and the rule of law itself depend on it.

January 6 Committee Establishes Trump's Culpability

A former student asked me what I thought of the first night's presentation of the January 6 Committee. The Committee, of course, has been conducting a meticulous investigation of  January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol.

Here's what I wrote him. 

The presentation is brilliant, the case damning. 40-50% of Republicans are skeptical of Trump's lies and this will help cement their certainty. Whether Trump is charged or not, and of course I fervently believe he deserves to be and hope Attorney General Merrick Garland takes that step, this establishes the historical record for all time. I paste below what Robert Reich wrote today:

What’s the use of the hearings by the House committee to investigate the January 6 insurrection —hearings that began last night and will run for the next several weeks — unless they lead to criminal prosecution of Donald Trump for his patently criminal actions? 

In a word: History. We tend to underestimate the importance of an historic record. But it is vastly important. It charts the course of the future by illuminating the course of the past. It is literally the final word. 

I don’t know whether Trump will be prosecuted. He deserves to be. He has violated his oath to the Constitution; he has violated America. But even if he is not prosecuted, the hearings will provide a full, detailed account of what Trump did in the weeks and months after the 2020 election — and therefore of what he did to our nation. 

In other words, even if he avoids prosecution, even if he is never formally deemed a criminal under the law, Trump will be accountable to history. That

is not as satisfying a form of accountability as a criminal judgment, to be sure. But it is a form of accountability that is inescapable. If the committee does its work properly — and I have every confidence it will — it will create a clear record. Which means that for our children and our children’s children — for as far as future generations will know of our recorded history — Donald Trump will live in infamy.

Ukraine War, One Month In

My responses to those who feel a successful Ukrainian resistance is impossible. The objections of the doom sayers are in quotes. Long live freedom, and long live Ukraine.

"We cannot help the Ukrainians." Here are some places to help the Ukrainians.

Four things you can do for Ukraine

Four things you can do for Ukraine Robert Reich Small but practical steps

"This boycott of Russian everything is...useless..." Rather than assuming the worst, just imagine for a moment that there is hope. If there is hope, then anything, large or small, that can be done to improve the situation will contribute to the potential for a better outcome. In that case, it is not useless to stop sending money that aggrandizes the resources of the tyrannical aggressor, but an obvious thing to do. Is the aggressor stronger with more money and weaker with less? There is an obvious answer to that question. Then we try not to contribute to his resources. 

Does this aggressor or any aggressor calculate the costs and benefits of prospective aggressions? If so, then the prospect of weakening economic retaliations for aggression will factor into the calculus and act as a deterrent. 

Economic pain, especially during and as a result of war in which there are battlefield reversals, can energize a society and contribute to the organization of plots and coups, or even successful popular insurrections. Just ask the Romanovs, the Bourbons, or the Mussolinis. 

"they will soon (probably in the same time it took Hitler to take Poland) take Ukraine. Period."

Tomorrow, March 24, will mark the end of four weeks of war. That was the same time period after which Warsaw surrendered and organized Polish resistance ended. The Ukrainians are nowhere near surrender or collapse, so that prediction is already wrong. 

"The Russians are bombing the utter shit out of them..they will resist with our weapons that we gingerly push into the arena on long sticks to keep our hands from the fires they are burning alive in."

Yes, because they want to. It seems they would rather be free than alive, if that's the choice. That's how our own country was born. And sometimes the unexpected happens. Few thought the Americans could win their independence against the foremost world empire of the time. Few thought Britain could resist Hitler and Mussolini once France had fallen and Stalin was still on Hitler's side. Few expected the nascent Israelis could withstand the invasion of seven Arab nations, outnumbered 10-1. Few would have bet on North Vietnam and the Viet Cong to outlast South Vietnam and the United States in that war. Truman won the 1948 election. The Mets won the 1969 World Series. Usually the expected happens. But often enough, the underdog prevails, often enough to fire the dedication of freedom-loving people everywhere. 

Russia under Putin is not a happy, prosperous, and well-adjusted society or polity. Maybe, with enough losses, enough time, enough increasing economic privation, enough military and national humiliation, the oligarchs, the army, and/or the people will rise up there as they have four times in the past 117 years and rid themselves of an overweening despotism.

 

Of course maybe not, in this instance. But we don't know, and nobody knows. The only things that will absolutely insure Ukrainian defeat are if they themselves lose their will to fight or if no one gives them the weapons they need to give them a chance. They show no signs of losing their will to fight as of today. And the democratic world still stands united in giving them the tools they need to fight because it is the right thing to do. Do we stand up for our beliefs or do we abandon them when the going gets hard? Do we tell tyrants and thugs fine, go ahead, you can act with impunity or do we show them their depredations will cost them more than they can afford to pay? Do we help people fighting for their freedom or do we tell them we think they are better off slaves?

I deeply admire the Ukrainians and am proud that the US and so many other countries are supporting them however they can, be the support military, humanitarian, monetary, political, demonstrating in the streets to show support for their government's efforts on Ukraine's behalf, or sanctioning and boycotting Russian sources of income. Long live freedom, and long live Ukraine.

 

Ukraine: How We Got Here and What We do Next

1. Yes, Putin was emboldened by previous moves at little international cost. The sanctions after Crimea at least became consequential, but they are not disabling.

2. No, World War III has not started already. One country is battling another. No other combatants are directly involved. That is not a World War. Whether it becomes a world war depends on what we, Putin, and others do next.

3. Yes, we and our allies must continue to arm Ukraine. It ends the policy of appeasement and makes clear from now on that the price of aggression will be high. It signals to countries facing Russian or other intimidation that we will help them, and makes it more likely they will stand up to coercion. It multiplies the cost to Putin and makes him the aggressor if he goes beyond the boundaries of Ukraine to try to staunch the replenishment by widening the war into Poland or Romania. By not immediately intervening to take out these deliveries it is Putin who has emboldened us to continue supplying Ukraine, just as we emboldened him by weak responses to his earlier aggressions. Now if he retaliates directly against us or our NATO allies on NATO territory he would be the one escalating, and would initiate World War III. He's already having trouble bludgeoning Ukraine into line, so imagine his problems if he added Germany, Poland, Romania, the USA and the rest of the NATO Treaty signatories to his active enemies. That's why he hasn't done it. He believes the NATO Charter would be followed by its member nations. He knows that's a fight he can't win. The only way he could stop us all would be nuclear. But he knows if he uses that, he dies too. Again, he indicates he is a rational actor because he has not activated the NATO Alliance, which would insure his conventional defeat, or used nuclear weapons, which would be suicidal. 

4. No, we do not need to send ground troops into Ukraine or send our air forces over their skies to "enforce a no-fly zone." If we do that we become active belligerents, and we start World War III. A no-fly zone means our planes are there to shoot down the planes of any other power that enters that airspace. That means direct aerial combat with the Russian Air Force, because they are already there. It's an unmistakable act of war. No country currently engaged in combat could ever permit the withdrawal of air support for their ground forces currently engaged in life and death combat. The logic of operations would necessitate their striking NATO air bases in NATO territory and we then striking Russian air bases inside Russia. The air defenses of their ground forces would strike at our planes overhead to defend their planes, and our planes in turn would have to target Russian ground forces shooting at them. Before you know it, every American is shooting at every Russian, and vice versa, and it's World War III.

5. Yes, we ought to embargo Russian oil. We should let them know through confidential channels before hand that it's coming (which they can already see by watching the Western news) and let them know it ends when they withdraw. We should also let them know we will play that card any time they invade anybody, including neutrals such as Finland and Sweden. This is yet another case, in addition to the intensifying climate crisis, which clearly demonstrates the urgent need to direct our energy consumption away from oil and other fossil fuels as rapidly as possible.

6. It may well be that China stands as the likely diplomatic key to ending the Russia-Ukraine War. That's probably not what the USA wants to happen though, as doing so would greatly raise China's profile and prestige in the world. But as long as Putin feels he has Chinese support he may be willing to keep paying the costs to pursue his dream of reconstituting the glories of the Russian Empire, pouring more men and material into what looks to be Russia's equivalent of Vietnam. But if the Chinese were to let him know they could not continue to back his folly, he might have to realize the game was up and accept their mediation and some at least implicitly face-saving diplomatic solution. In this case, one wonders what price China would extract from both Russia and the West for their good offices.

Prospect for Ukraine

I write this on Day 5 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainians are inspiring the world with their much stronger than expected resistance to the Russian onslaught. It is absolutely certain that Putin will not countenance defeat or withdrawal. He's put his chips in and can never be seen to back down. I foresee continuing stiffening Ukrainian resistance as more of our wondrous precision weaponry reaches them, leading to heavier and heavier Russian losses such as the burning columns of T-72s and APCs we have already seen on video. This will multiply Putin's rage and the Russian Army's humiliation such that their campaign will become ever more brutal. 

We've already seen this model before with Putin in Chechnya and Syria. Cities that successfully resist will be heavily struck, then as frustration grows, leveled. Expect Kharkiv and Kiev to be turned fairly soon into piles of rubble. As the Germans discovered at Stalingrad, however, bombed out urban landscapes are extremely perilous places for offensive operations, with roads blocked and innumerable places for defenders to hide and ambush. Russian losses will swell. Still, their preponderance is great, and they will grind forward, and at length, conquer the whole of a devastated Ukraine. 

From what I've seen thus far, that will not be the end of the war. Ukrainian spirit is strong. The Russian occupiers will become bogged down in a widespread and effective insurgency. The resistance will be very well-supplied. Even neutral Sweden has pledged to send lethal weaponry. Think of that. Russian losses will be quite heavy on an ongoing basis. A steady stream of hundreds and thousands of body bags will be brought home for funerals attended by grieving relatives and friends. All the while, sanctions will be sapping the Russian economy. Videos will show dead children. Its pariah status will grow. Boycotts will dry up its exports. The ruble is already crashing. The cost of occupying the ruined Ukraine and fighting the insurgency will not be offset by the seizure of the Ukrainian economy, since much of it will be in ruins. 

The Russian economy, about 8% the size of America's, will crack under the strain. As privation and war weariness grow, anti-Putin demonstrations in Russia will become larger and increasingly more defiant. I wouldn't be surprised to see the denouement to this classic Shakespearean tragedy end with footage of Putin's blood-spattered carcass sprawled across the marbled floor of one of the Kremlin's ornately appointed halls, the victim of a coup engineered by an alliance of disaffected oligarchs and the top army brass, the former's fortunes and the latter's pride having been drastically depleted by Putin's grand overreach. 

On the Anniversary of the Attempted Overthrow of American Democracy

Today I print a letter by my friend Jeff Deiss to his Senators and Congressman. It is a letter which I wholeheartedly support. I will be sending similar letters to my congressional delegation as well. I invite you to do the same.

A year ago was the darkest day in American democracy in my lifetime.  The real possibility that a strongman would be able to override two centuries of gradually improving American democracy was shocking, something I never believed possible.  It seems clear that 2021’s ultimately successful transition of power to a democratically-elected Administration has not been enough to assure that the processes in place can be comfortably depended upon going forward.  Many States have enacted laws that diminish the rights of voters and the power of the majority of voters to see their choices honored.  A year later, the situation remains precarious, and the stakes remain high.  

Therefore I am writing to urge you to support a Senate rule change that will end the filibuster for a single bill on voting rights. 

I know that the filibuster rule has held a long and often honorable role in Senate deliberations, assuring that compromise and bipartisanship are used in enacting laws.  So I do not urge this lightly.  But the dangers to our democracy now transcend the importance of a traditional moderating rule of the Senate, however wise or respected.  

If the will of the people as expressed in free and fair elections is allowed to be compromised, our democracy is lost.  Given the choice between preserving our democracy or the filibuster, the decision must be to end the filibuster rule this once in favor of protecting voting rights. 

January 6 Commission and What's at Stake

The January 6 Committee is about to start hitting the country with absolutely damning information about what Trump and his team were up to before and during the insurrection. If we're fortunate it will destroy and discredit him. We'll have to see. Majorities of Americans already hold him culpable, according to a Washington Post University of Maryland poll released today. Republicans in general and his partisans in particular have drunk the cool aid. The New York Times editorial today said the nation is at an unprecedented critical juncture where a major national political party is openly attempting to thwart democracy and has resorted to violence to do it. This is true and we live in a fraught time. The Times editorial calls on everyone to fight against this. They call on the Democrats in the Senate to lift the filibuster so they can pass the elections and voting rights bills and safeguard democracy. They call on citizens to fight for fair elections and vote against those trying to corrupt them.

The two things to keep in mind are, first, that we are on the side of righteousness, and second, that we are the majority. Despite what you may see in Tulare County, remember, even there the Republican edge is shrinking, Devin Nunes' formerly easy 30-point wins fell to only 5 and 8 percent in his last two elections. So, I want you to keep some facts in mind. The Democratic candidate for president has gotten the most votes in 7 of the last 8 elections. The Republican candidate only got the most votes once in the last eight elections. It's been since 2004 that George W. Bush, a wartime incumbent (who himself had been elected with a minority of the votes thanks to the electoral college system in 2000) was the last GOP aspirant to get more votes than the Democrat. Clinton in 92 and 96, Gore in 2000, Obama in 2008 and 2012, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 all outpolled their Republican adversaries. The GOP candidate for president has gotten the most votes once in the past thirty years. Democratic Senators represent 35,000,000 more people than their Republican counterparts. Democrats beat Republican candidates in the national popular vote in the House by 8.6% in 2018 and by 3% in 2020. Republicans are not the majority. They are the minority. That is why they are now doubling their efforts to gerrymander like crazy and tip the election process against fairness and equality. They know most people are against them, and that stacking the deck is the only way they can win. 

John F. Kennedy said: "In the long history of the world only a few generations have been granted the role of defending freedom in its hour of maximum danger. I do not shrink from this responsibility-I welcome it." He referred to his generation's role in saving freedom from foreign totalitarianism in World War II and then the Cold War. Ours concerns saving it from would-be internal totalitarians. I admire what Kennedy did. It is our privilege to be called upon to fight this same recurring age-old battle in our own day. If we fail then what he and my dad did, along with millions of others, including the 400,000 who didn't come home and the hundreds of thousands who were maimed, did all that for nothing. And that just ain't good enough.

Dune a Must-See for Sci-Fi Fans

Just back from the new movie, "Dune," based on the Frank Herbert book. My God, I was blown away at how great it was. So was my show biz daughter, who's read the book a lot more recently than I have. It's rare to see a modern movie take its time, and this did, in perfect pace with the book. Faithful to the story, brilliantly directed and acted, some of the most unusual music you'll ever hear, because it's a different universe, and so incredibly effective at sustaining the story and mood. Hans Zimmer, the composer, is a genius. 

If you like the book you'll love the film. And also if so, you really need to see it now, while it's on the big screen. Some little phone, tablet, or even desktop image won't do it justice at all. This book presents one of the most difficult screen adaptations imaginable, and this movie is one of if not the best adaptations I've ever seen. The whole audience (ok, there were nine people in the theater) just sat there after it ended watching the credits roll for a good five minutes. That's how in awe everybody was.

Republican Party Becoming Overtly Fascist

The day they throw Liz Cheney out of the House leadership will be the signal that the old Republican Party has ended. It will still be called the Republican Party but will actually have become the American Fascist Party. Arch-conservative though she is, Cheney at least has the integrity to call a lie a lie and the truth the truth. Edmund Burke wrote that a political party without a platform is nothing but a conspiracy to seize power. That is what the Republican Party has become. 

All their efforts are directed to gain power without scruple at any cost. Lying, cheating, stacking the deck, Orwellian double-speak, welcoming foreign intervention, even armed insurrection have become simply tactical options for them. When the truth conflicts with the party line it is the truth that must be eliminated, as Ms. Cheney will be next week. Their intent is clear from their own statements and from the numerous voter suppression and election-rigging laws they are passing at the state and local levels with frantic haste. From where they are now it is but a short step to bribery, suppression of independent media, assassination and coup. 

When one major party in a republic abandons adherence to fair play and the rule of law and turns down the road to the pursuit of power at any cost, the endgame is invariably the same. We have seen it all before. Yes, it is happening here. Yes, it is happening now. And unless things drastically change, the next time the GOP gains control of the presidency and both houses of congress at the same time they will not be as undisciplined and disorganized as they were under Trump. Next time they will complete the job.

How Good Are the 2021 LA Dodgers?

A friend who is a Padres fan sent me an email saying he thinks the Dodgers of 2020-2021 are one of the truly great teams in baseball history, and asked for my evaluation of that statement, comparing today's LA team to the 1998 Yankees, the team he feels were the best team he ever saw since he started paying attention to baseball in the late 1950s. Today's blog shares with you my answer to him.

 

I do believe the current Dodgers are a great team. They were first in scoring and ERA, and by one of the biggest ratios ever. They're in a league with the 1936 Yankees in that regard.

A few things to keep in mind. The first thing is that the season will tell. They (LA) were on a 116 win pace last year, which would tie for best all time. But it was a very unusual year with the Covid situation. It's always tough to compare teams from different eras. The 1998 Yankees were first in runs and first in ERA in the league that year, so they were certainly great. They were also at the height of the steroid period, so their numbers have to be regarded as suspect.

Comparing rosters, C I think Will Smith can hit like Jorge Posada. 1B Max Muncy has more power than Tino Martinez, and walks like a madman, but Martinez hit for a higher average. Definitely at least comparable. 2B Chris Taylor is a better player than Chuck Knoblauch. SS Corey Seager can hit like Derek Jeter, and for more power. Seager is fine defensively but Jeter was better with the glove and stole bases too. They're both hall of fame caliber, but if I had to pick one it would be Jeter. 3B I'd take Justin Turner over Scott Brosius. LF Definitely AJ Pollock over Chad Curtis. CF Bernie Williams was a terrific player but I'll take the monstrous power and astounding defense Cody Bellinger brings. RF Again, Paul O'Neill was an excellent player but Mookie Betts is other-worldly. Like Jackie Robinson, he can (and regularly does) turn a game around all by himself. 

When you get to the pitching rotations, both are excellent. From most to least in innings pitched, the Yanks had Andy Pettitte 16-11 4.24, David Wells 18-4 3.49, David Cone 20-7 3.55, Hideki Irabu 13-9 4.06 and Orlando Hernandez 12-4 3.13.  I'll bet money that the quintet of Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias and Dustin May will beat the Yankee ERAs, and comparing across the board at least four of them will beat their Yankee counterparts head to head. 

As for the relief closers, the Kenley Jansen of 2017 (1.32 ERA, and earlier years) was as good as Rivera, but not any more. Mariano definitely gets the nod at closer.So, across the board, the 2021 LA Dodgers to me overall appear to be better than the 1998 Yankees. They are one of the most talented teams ever. Now they just have to keep proving that, on the field.

The DA Has Trump's Taxes

 The Manhattan District Attorney has received eight years of Donald Trump's tax returns pursuant to a Supreme Court order delivered to Trump's accountants, Mazars. It will take DA Cyrus Vance Jr.'s team awhile to go through the "millions of pages" of records. High on the list of objectives will be to see if the Trump Organization committed tax fraud by lowballing the value of his properties to the IRS while committing bank fraud by overvaluing them to banks for the purpose of securing loans. They will also try to establish whether Trump or the organization, under Trump's authority made illegal payments, such as the ones Trump's longtime "fixer" Michael Cohen made as hush money to buy the silence of women who claim to have had affairs with Trump. Cohen has served prison time for this offense, which he said Trump ordered and later reimbursed him.

For Trump, the clock is ticking.

Covid-19 Vaccination

I got my second covid-19 shot (Pfizer) yesterday about 1:30 pm. Starting late morning today I've begun to experience flu-like symptoms. My temperature is elevated to 99.5 and I have general achiness and fatigue. I understand this is good; it shows my immune system believes it is under assault by the virus and is implementing its countermeasures, part of which should entail manufacturing the appropriate t-cells to attack the virus and saving the templates so they can be rapidly produced should the real culprit ever show up. This is all good, but I'd recommend you not schedule anything strenuous the day after your second shot. I'll see if things improve or not tomorrow and give you another update.

Biden and Harris Inaugurated

January 20, 2021, what a marvelous, happy day: the inauguration of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Over 180 years ago French visitor Alexis de Tocqueville wrote, "America is great because America is good." Over the past three months we have seen that that America still exists, that there is a chance for renewal, that honesty, decency, compassion, competence and inclusion are valued by most of us, and that there is reason for hope. Our better angels have indeed prevailed this day, and I am filled with gratitude.

Joint Chiefs Affirm Commitment to Constitution

Today the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the entire US military issued an extraordinary message to all members of the armed forces. It reminded all in uniform of that they took an oath to the Constitution and will obey only lawful orders. They stated that all citizens have the right to freedom of speech and assembly, but that the insurrectionary riot and invasion of the Capitol that took place on January 6 was a direct assault on the Constitution and democratic government. They affirmed our democratic processes and stated firmly that Joe Biden will be inaugurated on January 20. They closed with an admonition to all personnel to "stay ready" and "remain focused on the mission."

jcs-message-to-the-joint-force-jan-12-21-p1-xlarge.gif

Newsom Tabs Alex Padilla for Senator

Governor Gavin Newsom has appointed Secretary of State Alex Padilla for US Senator, to fill the unexpected term of Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris. This is who I was thinking it would likely be, and his selection pleases me. I've met him several times at state conventions. He's always there and accessible to the party activists, which is a good thing. He's from Socal instead of Norcal, which is some geographic balance the state can use. The Dem brass has been topheavy with Bay Area people, so that is a good thing. Most importantly, Padilla has been tremendously competent as Secretary of State. He's been terrifically proactive in terms of digitizing everything and incorporating online registration and the massive increase in vote by mail. He's put in the infrastructure and training that's made it work seamlessly in California. He's kept a low profile as SOS, just the right stance for someone whose job has been to non-partisanly and fairly administer the state's elections. And, as you know, he's Latino, California's plurality ethnicity. A major office holder of his background is long overdue. My plaudits to Governor Newsom; Alex Padilla is an excellent choice.

California Politicians Apparently Not So Corrupt

Corruption, I'd say, is largely a function of power without accountability, plus culture. By culture, I refer not only to the wider macro culture of the entire society, but even more specifically to the micro, or workplace culture. And then again, criminals of various types are drawn to certain professions where they can perpetrate their preferred deeds. Pedophiles are obviously drawn to jobs where they can work with kids, as we see in the scandals concerning scouting and clergy abuses. You would expect education too, and there have been instances, but not so many owing to a culture unsympathetic to their depredations and good accountability processes, at least here in California that I've seen. A politician, in most cases in order to get the job, is essentially a salesperson, with the product being themselves. That certainly can lend itself to all kinds of ethical problems with honesty, and then they have power once in. That power can open up the possibility of bribery and many types of corruption. One would think in these cases that criminal minds prone to sociopathy, narcissism and fraud might well be attracted to careers in politics. As with teaching, medicine and the other helping professions, we should expect to see predominantly the sincere attracted, especially if the established culture is above board and positive, but with always the danger of the predatorily self-serving insinuating themselves into the mix.

At the bottom of the page is the list of all California politicians convicted of crimes between 2010 and 2020. To these we can also add a Federal Representative, Duncan Hunter (R-CA 50), convicted in 2019 of using $250,000 in campaign money for personal expenditures. 

When you consider there are 58 counties, most with 5 elected supervisors, 482 incorporated cities, most with at least five council members, 977 school districts, most with at least five board members, 537 water districts, 40 state senate and 80 state assembly districts, and many other positions as well, (DA, Sheriffs, Assessors, Coroners, City Attorneys, Mayors, County and City Clerks, Registrars, as well as the statewide offices, you are talking tens of thousands of elected politicians in this state. 11 of them have been convicted of felonies in the past 10 years. 11, even though in almost all cases each of them faces rivals of the opposing party or even their own party, unhappy special interests, nosy journalists and other political enemies who have a vested interest in and would love to expose any illegal or inappropriate behavior they could find. 

California

• State Senator Ron Calderon (D), brother of Tom, was convicted of money laundering. (2016)^[26]
• State Assemblyman Tom Calderon (D), brother of Ron, was convicted of money laundering. (2016)^[27]
• State Senator Leland Yee (D) pleaded guilty to one count of racketeering (2015)^[28] and was sentenced to five years in prison (2016).^[29]
• State Senator Roderick Wright (D) was convicted of eight counts of perjury and voter fraud. He was sentenced to 90 days and barred him from ever holding public office again and will be required to perform 1,500 hours of community service and three years' probation under the terms of his conviction. (2014)^[30] Wright was pardoned in 2018.^[31]
• State Assemblywoman Mary Hayashi (D) was charged with felony grand theft after being caught on video surveillance allegedly shoplifting $2,445 worth of merchandise from San Francisco's Neiman Marcus store.^[32][33] She was sentenced to $180 fine and three years' probation and was ordered to stay more than 50 feet from the store. (2011)

Local

• District Attorney for Contra Costa County Mark Peterson (D) convicted of perjury. (2017)^{[citation needed]}
• Los Angeles County Sheriff of Los Angeles Lee Baca (D) convicted of obstructing the FBI. (2017)^[34]
• Mayor of Gardena Paul Tanaka (R) convicted of civil rights abuses. (2016)^[35]
• Sheriff of San Francisco Ross Mirkarimi (D) convicted of false imprisonment. (2013)^[36]
• Mayor of San Diego Bob Filner (D) given three months of house arrest, three years' probation, and partial loss of his mayoral pension after pleading guilty to state charges of false imprisonmentand battery. (2013)^[37]

I'm Becoming Optimistic About the Election

This spring Biden led in surveys. Even so, I presumed Trump would play his political cards well despite his malevolence and policy incompetence, and estimated the incumbent's electoral college chances at 65%. Now, stricken by Covid-19 himself as it rages through his unprotected government, and pulling the plug on economic relief negotiations as his own Fed Chair pleads for a bill and the economy falters, I feel he is sealing his political demise. In contrast to what I expected, Trump's politics have been as abysmal as his policies, and I feel things are starting to look very, very good to defeat him.

Financial services company Goldman Sachs today forecast that the Democrats will take both the White House and the Senate, and said a Democratic sweep would mean a faster recovery and thus would be good for the economy. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of another financial services company, recently found that Biden’s plans would add 7.4 million more jobs to the economy than Trump’s would.

Real Clear Politics state by state poll averages have Biden's current electoral vote at 374 and Trump's at 164. Nate Silver's 538 site has Biden's projected Election Day chance of coming out ahead in the popular vote at 93%, and of electoral college victory at 83%. I was listening to NPR yesterday. They had the editor of The Economist on. She said their forecast, based on both polls and broader "fundamentals," many of them economic, of course, has Biden's popular vote win probability at 99% and his electoral college win probability at 90%. A New York Times Sienna College Poll out yesterday showed Trump losing senior citizens, a group he won by 9 points in 2016. The handwriting is on the wall.

Trump Insanity Intensifies

Reprinted from Heather Cox Richardson, Professor of History at Boston College, with permission.

It appears that the closing argument from the Trump campaign for his reelection was supposed to be that the Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, was overreacting to coronavirus, making fun, for example, of his insistence on wearing a mask and staying distant from others. 

Trump was supposed to project strength in the face of the pandemic, suggesting that it has been way overblown by Democrats who oppose his administration and who are thus responsible for the faltering economy.

Then, of course, coronavirus began to spread like wildfire through Trump’s own inner circle after last Sunday’s Rose Garden celebration of Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court seat formerly held by the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. As Trump and increasing numbers of people in his inner circle began to test positive for the infection, the campaign first floundered, and now appears to be trying to brazen out the idea that the disease is not a big deal, and that Trump has conquered it.

This is insane. Covid-19 has currently infected more than 7 million Americans, and killed more than 210,000 of us, close to the number of Union soldiers—224,097-- who died in our bloody four-year Civil War.

Apparently, it is frustrating Trump that he cannot campaign. Last night, he traveled in a motorcade around Walter Reed Hospital, waving to supporters. The trip horrified medical personnel, who noted that the presidential vehicle is sealed against chemical attack, meaning that the secret service professionals traveling with the president were exposed to a deadly disease for no apparent reason. One of the agents assigned to the First Family told CNN “That never should have happened… The frustration with how we’re treated when it comes to decisions on this illness goes back before this though. We’re not disposable.” 

Dr. James P. Phillips, from the Walter Reed Hospital, took to Twitter: “Every single person in the vehicle during that completely unnecessary Presidential “drive-by” just now has to be quarantined for 14 days. They might get sick. They may die. For political theater. Commanded by Trump to put their lives at risk for theater. This is insanity.”

Even staffers were complaining about the disorganization in the West Wing after Trump’s drive. But things did not get more anchored this morning. 

Early on, the president began to tweet at a great pace, in all caps, campaign slogans followed by the word “VOTE!” His promises were random and unanchored in reality, with words like “BIGGEST TAX CUT EVER, AND ANOTHER ONE COMING. VOTE!” According to Gabriel Sherman at Vanity Fair, the Trump family is divided over Trump’s performance. According to two Republicans close to the family, Don Jr. was worried by the drive around the hospital. “Don Jr. thinks Trump is acting crazy,” said one of the sources. But Ivanka, Eric, and Jared Kushner “keep telling Trump how great he’s doing.” All of them, though, worried about the morning’s tweet storm. 

The infection continues to spread through the White House. This morning, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany announced that she, too, has tested positive for coronavirus, a day after she briefed reporters without a mask. Two sources told CNN that two of McEnany’s deputies, Chad Gilmartin and Karoline Leavitt, have also tested positive, along with two members of the White House staff. McEnany said at first the White House was planning to put out the number of staffers infected, but then said it could not, out of “privacy concerns.” But of course there’s no privacy at stake in the raw numbers. 

Today we learned that another person who attended the Rose Garden event, Pastor Greg Laurie of the Harvest Christian Fellowship megachurches in California and Hawaii, has tested positive for coronavirus. In addition, thirteen workers who helped to cater a private Trump fundraiser last Thursday in Minnesota are all quarantining.

Although doctors expressed surprise and concern at the idea Trump might leave Walter Reed Hospital today, the president tweeted: “I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!” 

Doctors noted that he is in a dangerous period for the progression of Covid-19, and that anyone who had required the sorts of treatments Trump has had is too sick to leave the hospital. “I will bet dollars to doughnuts it’s the president and his political aides who are talking about discharge, not his doctors,” William Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University’s medical school, told the Washington Post. 

A briefing by Trump’s doctors obscured more than it revealed. The White House physician, Sean Conley, has refused to tell reporters when Trump last tested negative for coronavirus, a piece of information that would tell us when he knew he was infected. He also refused to explain why the president is being treated with a steroid usually reserved for seriously ill patients, or to discuss the state of Trump’s lungs. He did say that the president is “not out of 

the woods yet.”

Nonetheless, Trump left Walter Reed Hospital tonight, after lights had been installed to enable him to make a triumphant exit. Still infectious, he went back to the White House and climbed a flight of stairs to a balcony, where he dramatically removed his face mask and saluted well-wishers from a balcony. Although the moment was clearly designed to make Trump look strong, it was obvious he was struggling to breathe. 

Vox’s Aaron Rupar noted that “Trump has no choice but to continue to downplay coronavirus (despite 210,000 dead and record new case numbers) because if he changed course, it would be an admission that he was wrong about the defining issue of his presidency -- at the cost of tens of thousands of lives.” 

This evening, Trump released a video telling people not to let the coronavirus “dominate you. Don’t be afraid of it. You’re going to beat it…. Don’t let it take over your lives.” CNN chief White House correspondent Jim Acosta dubbed him “Coronavirus in Chief.” 

Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden held a town hall tonight in Miami, Florida, where he gave detailed answers to questions about police reform (more money, ban chokeholds and no knock warrants); socialism (“I’ve taken on the Castros of the world. I didn’t cozy up to them”); a mask mandate (the president can only mandate masks on federal property, but he would call on governors and mayors to do the same); and reopening schools (PPE, small classes, ventilation). Watchers noted that it was a treat both to see a normal conversation and to hear detailed, informed answers. 

To stay in touch with voters, Biden today began “Notes from Joe,” a daily newsletter.

Bloomberg is reporting that the contrast between the recent craziness of the White House and Biden’s calm detail has led the stock market to stabilize. Strategists are coming to think there will not be a contested election after all. Biden’s lead over Trump increased again after Trump’s debate performance, which apparently was designed to try to bully Biden by hitting triggers until he began to stutter, thus enabling the Trump campaign to portray him as mentally incapacitated. That strategy failed as Biden parried the triggers, and Americans were repelled by Trump’s behavior. Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote Bank SA, told Bloomberg, “Polls are shifting from a close election and prolonged uncertainty to more a dominant Biden and clean succession…. That is reducing uncertainty and increasing risk appetite.”

Can Trump's Economic Standing Save Him?

A friend sent me a recent New York Times article by Jim Tankersley on Trump's standing on the economy. The bottom line is that Trump is overall still rated better on the economy than Biden. I've been watching that too. It's the only issue running in Trump's favor, but it could be the most important issue. So if he's able to prevail, other than his efforts to cheat and manipulate the voting itself, that's what will have saved him.

The upshot of the article, when you read the details, is that Republicans still think Trump's great on the economy. That's not exactly a shocker. And Democrats think he's horrible. That's also predicable. Beyond that, here's a key passage from the article:

"But the plunge in economic activity since the coronavirus began to spread rapidly in the United States late this past winter has hurt Mr. Trump's standing on economic issues as well as his overall approval. Most polls now find Americans are evenly split on whether they approve of his handling of the issue. Gallup, for example, found Mr. Trump enjoyed a 48 percent approval rating on the economy this month, down from 63 percent in January. The decline was particularly acute among moderates, independents and voters who attended at least some college."

Here's link to the full Gallup Poll quoted above. 

So this is the guy who won the three Great Lakes battlegrounds by a combined 78,000 votes in 2016. That's much less than a 1% victory in all three, and he squeaked by in the biggest battleground, Florida, by 1%. Now his standing on the economy has tanked 15%. The decline was "particularly acute" among "moderates and independents," precisely the swing voters. So if, as the article says, almost all Republicans still think he walks on water, and almost all Democrats still think he is Lucifer in the flesh, and their views have scarcely changed from when his economic approval was at 63%, then how much has his economic standing among the third of voters who are moderate and independent declined in order to pull the whole average down by 15 points? Well, the simple arithmetic would put that at around 45%. That's enormous. And again, those are precisely the persuadable people, the "moderates and independents" who are the SWING VOTERS everyone is always talking about. 

Trump could still win. The economy is a potential lifeline, as long as his numbers there aren't as terrible as his numbers on everything else. He could also make headway on patriotism, as he defines it, and on fear of demonstrators, as he's trying to do with his "law and order" pitch. But he needs those numbers to get a lot better. The last four national polls that came in last week gave Biden an average 8.5% national lead. In 2016 Trump was able to eke out an electoral win BARELY, with a 2.1% national deficit. As of right now he's losing, and he'll need those economic numbers to improve substantially to reverse that. It may be possible, but they're not there yet. I'm sure he realizes where he stands and will be working hard to try to get there.