Governor Gavin Newsom has appointed Secretary of State Alex Padilla for US Senator, to fill the unexpected term of Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris. This is who I was thinking it would likely be, and his selection pleases me. I've met him several times at state conventions. He's always there and accessible to the party activists, which is a good thing. He's from Socal instead of Norcal, which is some geographic balance the state can use. The Dem brass has been topheavy with Bay Area people, so that is a good thing. Most importantly, Padilla has been tremendously competent as Secretary of State. He's been terrifically proactive in terms of digitizing everything and incorporating online registration and the massive increase in vote by mail. He's put in the infrastructure and training that's made it work seamlessly in California. He's kept a low profile as SOS, just the right stance for someone whose job has been to non-partisanly and fairly administer the state's elections. And, as you know, he's Latino, California's plurality ethnicity. A major office holder of his background is long overdue. My plaudits to Governor Newsom; Alex Padilla is an excellent choice.
"Liberally Speaking" Video
Tuesday, December 22, 2020
Saturday, December 5, 2020
California Politicians Apparently Not So Corrupt
California
- State Senator Ron Calderon (D), brother of Tom, was convicted of money laundering. (2016)[26]
- State Assemblyman Tom Calderon (D), brother of Ron, was convicted of money laundering. (2016)[27]
- State Senator Leland Yee (D) pleaded guilty to one count of racketeering (2015)[28] and was sentenced to five years in prison (2016).[29]
- State Senator Roderick Wright (D) was convicted of eight counts of perjury and voter fraud. He was sentenced to 90 days and barred him from ever holding public office again and will be required to perform 1,500 hours of community service and three years' probation under the terms of his conviction. (2014)[30] Wright was pardoned in 2018.[31]
- State Assemblywoman Mary Hayashi (D) was charged with felony grand theft after being caught on video surveillance allegedly shoplifting $2,445 worth of merchandise from San Francisco's Neiman Marcus store.[32][33] She was sentenced to $180 fine and three years' probation and was ordered to stay more than 50 feet from the store. (2011)
Local
- District Attorney for Contra Costa County Mark Peterson (D) convicted of perjury. (2017)[citation needed]
- Los Angeles County Sheriff of Los Angeles Lee Baca (D) convicted of obstructing the FBI. (2017)[34]
- Mayor of Gardena Paul Tanaka (R) convicted of civil rights abuses. (2016)[35]
- Sheriff of San Francisco Ross Mirkarimi (D) convicted of false imprisonment. (2013)[36]
- Mayor of San Diego Bob Filner (D) given three months of house arrest, three years' probation, and partial loss of his mayoral pension after pleading guilty to state charges of false imprisonmentand battery. (2013)[37]
Wednesday, October 7, 2020
I'm Becoming Optimistic About the Election
Tuesday, October 6, 2020
Trump Insanity Intensifies
Reprinted from Heather Cox Richardson, Professor of History at Boston College, with permission.
It appears that the closing argument from the Trump campaign for his reelection was supposed to be that the Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, was overreacting to coronavirus, making fun, for example, of his insistence on wearing a mask and staying distant from others.
Trump was supposed to project strength in the face of the pandemic, suggesting that it has been way overblown by Democrats who oppose his administration and who are thus responsible for the faltering economy.
Then, of course, coronavirus began to spread like wildfire through Trump’s own inner circle after last Sunday’s Rose Garden celebration of Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court seat formerly held by the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. As Trump and increasing numbers of people in his inner circle began to test positive for the infection, the campaign first floundered, and now appears to be trying to brazen out the idea that the disease is not a big deal, and that Trump has conquered it.
This is insane. Covid-19 has currently infected more than 7 million Americans, and killed more than 210,000 of us, close to the number of Union soldiers—224,097-- who died in our bloody four-year Civil War.
Apparently, it is frustrating Trump that he cannot campaign. Last night, he traveled in a motorcade around Walter Reed Hospital, waving to supporters. The trip horrified medical personnel, who noted that the presidential vehicle is sealed against chemical attack, meaning that the secret service professionals traveling with the president were exposed to a deadly disease for no apparent reason. One of the agents assigned to the First Family told CNN “That never should have happened… The frustration with how we’re treated when it comes to decisions on this illness goes back before this though. We’re not disposable.”
Dr. James P. Phillips, from the Walter Reed Hospital, took to Twitter: “Every single person in the vehicle during that completely unnecessary Presidential “drive-by” just now has to be quarantined for 14 days. They might get sick. They may die. For political theater. Commanded by Trump to put their lives at risk for theater. This is insanity.”
Even staffers were complaining about the disorganization in the West Wing after Trump’s drive. But things did not get more anchored this morning.
Early on, the president began to tweet at a great pace, in all caps, campaign slogans followed by the word “VOTE!” His promises were random and unanchored in reality, with words like “BIGGEST TAX CUT EVER, AND ANOTHER ONE COMING. VOTE!” According to Gabriel Sherman at Vanity Fair, the Trump family is divided over Trump’s performance. According to two Republicans close to the family, Don Jr. was worried by the drive around the hospital. “Don Jr. thinks Trump is acting crazy,” said one of the sources. But Ivanka, Eric, and Jared Kushner “keep telling Trump how great he’s doing.” All of them, though, worried about the morning’s tweet storm.
The infection continues to spread through the White House. This morning, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany announced that she, too, has tested positive for coronavirus, a day after she briefed reporters without a mask. Two sources told CNN that two of McEnany’s deputies, Chad Gilmartin and Karoline Leavitt, have also tested positive, along with two members of the White House staff. McEnany said at first the White House was planning to put out the number of staffers infected, but then said it could not, out of “privacy concerns.” But of course there’s no privacy at stake in the raw numbers.
Today we learned that another person who attended the Rose Garden event, Pastor Greg Laurie of the Harvest Christian Fellowship megachurches in California and Hawaii, has tested positive for coronavirus. In addition, thirteen workers who helped to cater a private Trump fundraiser last Thursday in Minnesota are all quarantining.
Although doctors expressed surprise and concern at the idea Trump might leave Walter Reed Hospital today, the president tweeted: “I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!”
Doctors noted that he is in a dangerous period for the progression of Covid-19, and that anyone who had required the sorts of treatments Trump has had is too sick to leave the hospital. “I will bet dollars to doughnuts it’s the president and his political aides who are talking about discharge, not his doctors,” William Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University’s medical school, told the Washington Post.
A briefing by Trump’s doctors obscured more than it revealed. The White House physician, Sean Conley, has refused to tell reporters when Trump last tested negative for coronavirus, a piece of information that would tell us when he knew he was infected. He also refused to explain why the president is being treated with a steroid usually reserved for seriously ill patients, or to discuss the state of Trump’s lungs. He did say that the president is “not out of
the woods yet.”
Nonetheless, Trump left Walter Reed Hospital tonight, after lights had been installed to enable him to make a triumphant exit. Still infectious, he went back to the White House and climbed a flight of stairs to a balcony, where he dramatically removed his face mask and saluted well-wishers from a balcony. Although the moment was clearly designed to make Trump look strong, it was obvious he was struggling to breathe.
Vox’s Aaron Rupar noted that “Trump has no choice but to continue to downplay coronavirus (despite 210,000 dead and record new case numbers) because if he changed course, it would be an admission that he was wrong about the defining issue of his presidency -- at the cost of tens of thousands of lives.”
This evening, Trump released a video telling people not to let the coronavirus “dominate you. Don’t be afraid of it. You’re going to beat it…. Don’t let it take over your lives.” CNN chief White House correspondent Jim Acosta dubbed him “Coronavirus in Chief.”
Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden held a town hall tonight in Miami, Florida, where he gave detailed answers to questions about police reform (more money, ban chokeholds and no knock warrants); socialism (“I’ve taken on the Castros of the world. I didn’t cozy up to them”); a mask mandate (the president can only mandate masks on federal property, but he would call on governors and mayors to do the same); and reopening schools (PPE, small classes, ventilation). Watchers noted that it was a treat both to see a normal conversation and to hear detailed, informed answers.
To stay in touch with voters, Biden today began “Notes from Joe,” a daily newsletter.
Bloomberg is reporting that the contrast between the recent craziness of the White House and Biden’s calm detail has led the stock market to stabilize. Strategists are coming to think there will not be a contested election after all. Biden’s lead over Trump increased again after Trump’s debate performance, which apparently was designed to try to bully Biden by hitting triggers until he began to stutter, thus enabling the Trump campaign to portray him as mentally incapacitated. That strategy failed as Biden parried the triggers, and Americans were repelled by Trump’s behavior. Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote Bank SA, told Bloomberg, “Polls are shifting from a close election and prolonged uncertainty to more a dominant Biden and clean succession…. That is reducing uncertainty and increasing risk appetite.”
Tuesday, August 25, 2020
Can Trump's Economic Standing Save Him?
A friend sent me a recent New York Times article by Jim Tankersley on Trump's standing on the economy. The bottom line is that Trump is overall still rated better on the economy than Biden. I've been watching that too. It's the only issue running in Trump's favor, but it could be the most important issue. So if he's able to prevail, other than his efforts to cheat and manipulate the voting itself, that's what will have saved him.
The upshot of the article, when you read the details, is that Republicans still think Trump's great on the economy. That's not exactly a shocker. And Democrats think he's horrible. That's also predicable. Beyond that, here's a key passage from the article:
"But the plunge in economic activity since the coronavirus began to spread rapidly in the United States late this past winter has hurt Mr. Trump's standing on economic issues as well as his overall approval. Most polls now find Americans are evenly split on whether they approve of his handling of the issue. Gallup, for example, found Mr. Trump enjoyed a 48 percent approval rating on the economy this month, down from 63 percent in January. The decline was particularly acute among moderates, independents and voters who attended at least some college."
Here's link to the full Gallup Poll quoted above.
So this is the guy who won the three Great Lakes battlegrounds by a combined 78,000 votes in 2016. That's much less than a 1% victory in all three, and he squeaked by in the biggest battleground, Florida, by 1%. Now his standing on the economy has tanked 15%. The decline was "particularly acute" among "moderates and independents," precisely the swing voters. So if, as the article says, almost all Republicans still think he walks on water, and almost all Democrats still think he is Lucifer in the flesh, and their views have scarcely changed from when his economic approval was at 63%, then how much has his economic standing among the third of voters who are moderate and independent declined in order to pull the whole average down by 15 points? Well, the simple arithmetic would put that at around 45%. That's enormous. And again, those are precisely the persuadable people, the "moderates and independents" who are the SWING VOTERS everyone is always talking about.
Trump could still win. The economy is a potential lifeline, as long as his numbers there aren't as terrible as his numbers on everything else. He could also make headway on patriotism, as he defines it, and on fear of demonstrators, as he's trying to do with his "law and order" pitch. But he needs those numbers to get a lot better. The last four national polls that came in last week gave Biden an average 8.5% national lead. In 2016 Trump was able to eke out an electoral win BARELY, with a 2.1% national deficit. As of right now he's losing, and he'll need those economic numbers to improve substantially to reverse that. It may be possible, but they're not there yet. I'm sure he realizes where he stands and will be working hard to try to get there.
Saturday, August 15, 2020
What's Behind Trump's Frantic Efforts to Cheat?
Donald Trump is currently defunding and interfering with the operations of the US Postal Service and is spreading disinformation about the security and efficacy of voting by mail. I am convinced that a big part of Trump's desperation and frantic attempts to cheat come from his realization that once he is out of office his criminal immunity will end and his lap dog Attorney General William Barr won't be there to use the resources of the US government to shield Individual Number One. Joe Biden has already said "no way" when asked if he'd grant Trump a pardon. Trump's tax frauds, obstructions of justice, campaign finance violations, briberies and extortions will all be fair game and the agents he has impugned in the Southern District of New York and the FBI will be more than motivated to take him down. His complicit minions will sing like canaries to save themselves without him in office to grant them pardons and commutations.
Tuesday, June 9, 2020
Who is Donald Trump, Really?
Thursday, May 21, 2020
Trump's Virus Lies and Inaction Cost 54,000 Lives, So Far
Inaction that cost lives |
In the San Francisco area, major employers began directing their employees to stay home. Washington State declared a state of emergency. South Korea, Vietnam and other countries ordered aggressive measures.
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President Trump did not.
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Some local leaders also continued to urge business as usual. In early March, Mayor Bill de Blasio told New Yorkers to “get out on the town despite coronavirus.”
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This kind of advice appears to have cost tens of thousands of American lives, according to a new analysis by researchers at Columbia University.
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If the U.S. had enacted social-distancing measures a week earlier than it did — in early March rather than mid-March — about 36,000 fewer Americans would have died, the study found. That’s more than one third of the current death toll, which is about 100,000.
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If the measures had been in place two weeks earlier, on March 1, the death toll would be 54,000 lower.
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Saturday, May 9, 2020
Trump's Risky Re-Election Reopening Strategy
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Vital Covid-19 Information
■ An Arizona man died and his wife was hospitalized after officials said they self-medicated using a fish tank additive that has the same active ingredient as an anti-malaria drug promoted by the president.■ Officials in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak started, said today that public transportation would resume within 24 hours and that residents would be allowed to leave the city beginning April 8, as infections appeared to be dwindling.
The world infection rate is accelerating. Reported on Good Morning America this morning, it took 2 months to reach 100,000 global infections, 11 days from there to reach 200,000, and only five days after that to reach 300,000.
Those figures plus the Wuhan experience show that if Trump can stay patient another 4-5 weeks (or state governors defy him and maintain their own shutdowns strongly) we may be able to get the upper hand on this and get back to normal faster. If not, the virus will explode nationally, there will be carnage and we could have as many as 2 million US deaths.
Saturday, March 21, 2020
Coronavirus Prospects
Saturday, February 8, 2020
Current State of the Presidential 2020 Contest
There’s no doubt Biden’s lost a couple of steps. He’s a good man, knows every leader in the world on a first name basis, has worlds of experience and is progressive enough. But his ability to contend with Trump has to be seriously questioned. He’s not inspiring a lot of confidence. He’ll likely not do so well in NH. He should do well in NV and should win SC big. If he’s weak in those also, his campaign will evaporate.
Warren is my personal favorite. I don’t see her in the top echelon in any polls anymore though. Klobuchar is looking better all the time but is unlikely to win the nomination. She could be a good running mate. Steyer, Yang, are going nowhere. The rest like Bennet, Patrick, can’t even qualify for the debate stage, are becoming jokes and should drop out.
That leaves Buttigieg. He’s running strong now, has put all his eggs in IO and NH and is strong there. He polls weak in the rest of the country though as of yet. But a win in NH could give him momentum, on top of his strong showing in Iowa. Pete is very smart and well spoken, a Rhodes Scholar. He has the veteran resume Trump doesn’t. He’s really good at throwing out platitudes in ways that relate well to millennials. If Biden implodes Pete might become the moderate alternative to Bernie. Blacks are famously skeptical of him, though, and of course he’s gay, has no high level experience past the city level and is only 38.
So that’s how I’m seeing the race. So how do we beat Trump? With Trump, youth, minorities and women. Theoretically he’s beatable. There’s almost no middle ground in this election. People love him or hate him. It’s going to be a turnout election. After 2016 there’s been great energy on the Democratic side. In 2017 they blew out the GOP in Virginia, gaining 50 seats and flipping the state legislature. In 2018 Dems flipped 40 congressional seats, including 4 in PA, 2 in Michigan, a couple in WI, FL, NC, the critical swing states Dems must win. Since 2016 Dems have gained 7 governorships, 40 House seats and over 300 state legislative seats. How? Running on health care, gun safety, and decency. Women and minorities find Trump repugnant. That’s not surprising; he’s done everything he can to insult them. Clinton won women by 13; current polling finds Trump losing them by 32, no typo.
The economy, incumbency, Republican voter suppression, and all Trump’s brilliance at reaching the rural and working class white voter, especially men, and the configuration of the electoral college all work in Trump’s favor and still make him the favorite, in my view. But he’s potentially beatable if we can hold our voters together and get them out to vote, regardless of who our nominee is, if the process is seen as fair and our losing candidates all endorse and fight for the nominee. At any rate, that’s got to be the strategy and that’s the outline of our best hope to unseat the evil one, in my view.