Is Real Peace Breaking out in Korea?

What can we look forward to in upcoming dealings with North Korea (officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or DPRK)? The first thing to understand is that the main reason the US pays attention to DPRK tyrant Kim Jong-Un is that now he has the atomic bomb, and missiles capable of threatening the US mainland which may at some point be able to carry nuclear warheads. I read today that North Korean diplomats have specifically stated that former Libyan dictator Moammar Khaddafi and former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein NOT having the bomb is what allowed the US to overthrow them. The DPRK dictatorship thus clearly sees their nuclear capabilities as enhancing the survival of their regime.

Therefore the most important question in any negotiations is whether Kim will actually give up the capabilities he now has. I think that's pretty far fetched. But if he will, the next question is, what is his price? His first and most likely achievable demand is the lifting of international sanctions. He will also demand an actual peace treaty formally ending the Korean War, the US and South Korea (officially the Republic of Korea, or ROK) signing a non-aggression pact and recognizing the Kim dynasty as the DPRK's legitimate rulers. If these are the extent of Kim’s demands they are probably attainable. The verification of the liquidation of the North’s nukes, program and plutonium would be major sticking points. It must not be forgotten that the regime has agreed in the past to ending its program but has always reneged.

But will his price also include the withdrawal of US forces from ROK?  The severing of the US-ROK defense treaty? Perhaps even withdrawal of US forces from and ending its defense treaty with Japan? These are all probable DPRK demands, but not plausible US gives in any normal administration. There may be a cosmetic thawing of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but the chances of real lasting peace under conditions honestly adhered to by the murderous and tyrannical North Korean regime are, in my view, very small.

Is Mueller Investigation a Witch Hunt?

Regarding some of the latest developments in Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian election depredations and the Trump campaign, a friend recently emailed me that his conservative colleagues are saying that mixing in issues with prostitutes means it is "just a witch hunt." He wonders why part of the investigation has turned this way. Why, he asks, rather than focusing like a laser on Russia, which is a real and important thing, is it delving into "sexual silliness."

Here is my reply: 

Some of your conservative friends say the Mueller probe has gone off in error delving into sex issues and is thus a "witch hunt." Not. Mueller is not after that stuff because it’s salacious. He’s after criminality, and he’s after leverage so he can flip witnesses to go after the bigger fish. Think. If campaign money was used to pay hush money, federal crime. Think. Trump’s signature is not on the non-disclosure deal with porn star Stormy Daniels. Trump says he knows nothing about the deal. If both those things are true it's critical that (Trump attorney Michael) Cohen says he paid with his own money. If Cohen committed his client to a deal without telling him, that’s a crime. He can get disbarred. Cohen had a proclivity to record all his conversations. Mueller’s guys just raided to get a hold of those things. What else might be in there? Maybe things that will hang him out to dry. Maybe things incriminating Trump. Or maybe things that incriminate Cohen. As Trump’s personal attorney and fixer for many years what does he know about Trump’s shady or downright illegal doings? If he’s facing prison time what might he be willing to reveal about his boss? The investigation has gotten 5 guilty pleas and 19 additional indictments, including charges against 13 Russian meddlers. That’s no witch hunt. It’s a criminal and intelligence bonanza, and there is more to come. Impress that on your conservative colleagues. Guilty pleas haven’t been secured in witch hunts since the Inquisition.

My friend next asked whether raiding Cohen's papers, recordings and computer records might be a violation of attorney-client privilege. The answer is that no, it is not. The attorney-client confidentiality privilege does not extend to criminal conduct. In order for the FBI to even get such a search warrant it had to convince a federal judge that there is a strong likelihood of exposing criminality by the seizure of such materials. It isn't good news for Cohen-and possibly Trump-that the federal court was convinced that such evidence was likely to be secured.