You've probably heard the saying "When life gives you lemons make lemonade." Last December 22 I got some interesting news from my family doctor. He said my annual physical was excellent except for one anomaly in my blood readings. Something called Hemoglobin A1C was high, a reading of 6. It measures sugar content over the past three months. Dr. Coffey said it's supposed to be 5.6 or lower. My reading indicated "pre-diabetic."
He was as surprised as I was. I run 5 kilometers three times a week. Three other mornings I do half an hour of calisthenics and weights followed by half an hour of cycling or power walking up an 11% grade. The doc said he wasn't sure he believed the reading. "You're not overweight, you exercise pretty rigorously and there's no family history of diabetes?" "That's right, I replied." He had me come in three days later to give another blood sample. It came out 5.9. "Now I believe it" he said. "Get rid of the carbohydrates," he told me. "How much?" I asked. "Slash them by 80%!" was his answer.
Wow. I got to work. A lot of things would have to go. No bread, rice, potatoes or pasta, let alone things like cookies or ice cream. I started reading labels at the store and looked up carb counts online. Fruit and fruit juices are high, for instance. No apples or oranges in my lunch anymore. Even peas and beans are high for vegetables. I cut back cereals from 6 mornings a week to three. I switched from 1% cow's milk to almond milk. I eat a lot more nuts, vegetables, lean meats and salads. I snack on cottage cheese or peanut butter.
I don't want to get diabetes if I can avoid it. I've heard the stories. Toes and feet amputated, blindness, heart attacks. Nuh-uh.
Yesterday I went back for a follow up. Its been three months. I got on his balance scale and weighed in at 154 pounds. I'd shed 18 pounds over the past three months. I'm not eating less food; I've just cut out a lot of the carbs. It hadn't seemed to me or the doctor that I was overweight, but obviously I was carrying plenty around that I didn't need. The A1C reading? Well, it still came in at 6.0. But the doc says it's over a three-month period and may not have caught all of any recent reduction. I'll go back in three more months, at the end of June, and get another reading. I'll let you know if there's been any progress. Either way, the weight loss alone has been a bonus. It looks like I've made some lemonade!
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Saturday, March 26, 2016
Trump and Cruz Reach New Lows
How repugnant is Donald Trump? Here's a quote about Trump from conservative pundit David Brooks from a discussion on PBS News Hour.
It’s just mind-boggling. And we have sort of become acculturated, because this campaign has been so ugly. We have become acculturated to sleaze and unhappiness that you just want to shower from every 15 minutes.
The Trump comparison of the looks of the wives, he does have, over the course of his life, a consistent misogynistic view of women as arm candy, as pieces of meat. It’s a consistent attitude toward women which is the stuff of a diseased adolescent.
And so we have seen a bit of that show up again. But if you go back over his past, calling into radio shows bragging about his affairs, talking about his sex life in public, he is childish in his immaturity. And his — even his misogyny is a childish misogyny.
And that’s why I do not think Republicans, standard Republicans, can say, yes, I’m going to vote for this guy because he’s our nominee. He’s of a different order than your normal candidate. And this whole week is just another reminder of that.
And how feckless is Ted Cruz? Responding to Trump ridiculing the looks of his wife, Cruz said he was angry and told the Donald to "leave Heidi alone." He rightly called the mogul a "sniveling coward" and "sleazy Donald." So far, so good. But then when a reporter asked him if that meant he would not support or vote for Trump if he were the Republican nominee, Cruz dodged the question by saying he didn't think Trump would be the nominee. Asked again, he again dodged. That's been the central dilemma of the anti-Trumps all along. Even if they have the guts to call him a scumbag, they know they'll need his racist, misogynist, xenophobic supporters to win if they manage to wrest the GOP nomination from him, and they don't want to alienate them. That means, of course, that candidates like Cruz play into Trump's narrative (they're all weak) when they then don't stand up and say, no I won't vote for a sleazy, sniveling coward. Cruz is either admitting that his critique is hyperbole or that he doesn't have the guts to say no to a "diseased adolescent," as Brooks put it. The spectacle becomes tawdrier by the day. Does anyone really think either of these two is fit to be president or could win a national political election?
It’s just mind-boggling. And we have sort of become acculturated, because this campaign has been so ugly. We have become acculturated to sleaze and unhappiness that you just want to shower from every 15 minutes.
The Trump comparison of the looks of the wives, he does have, over the course of his life, a consistent misogynistic view of women as arm candy, as pieces of meat. It’s a consistent attitude toward women which is the stuff of a diseased adolescent.
And so we have seen a bit of that show up again. But if you go back over his past, calling into radio shows bragging about his affairs, talking about his sex life in public, he is childish in his immaturity. And his — even his misogyny is a childish misogyny.
And that’s why I do not think Republicans, standard Republicans, can say, yes, I’m going to vote for this guy because he’s our nominee. He’s of a different order than your normal candidate. And this whole week is just another reminder of that.
And how feckless is Ted Cruz? Responding to Trump ridiculing the looks of his wife, Cruz said he was angry and told the Donald to "leave Heidi alone." He rightly called the mogul a "sniveling coward" and "sleazy Donald." So far, so good. But then when a reporter asked him if that meant he would not support or vote for Trump if he were the Republican nominee, Cruz dodged the question by saying he didn't think Trump would be the nominee. Asked again, he again dodged. That's been the central dilemma of the anti-Trumps all along. Even if they have the guts to call him a scumbag, they know they'll need his racist, misogynist, xenophobic supporters to win if they manage to wrest the GOP nomination from him, and they don't want to alienate them. That means, of course, that candidates like Cruz play into Trump's narrative (they're all weak) when they then don't stand up and say, no I won't vote for a sleazy, sniveling coward. Cruz is either admitting that his critique is hyperbole or that he doesn't have the guts to say no to a "diseased adolescent," as Brooks put it. The spectacle becomes tawdrier by the day. Does anyone really think either of these two is fit to be president or could win a national political election?
Sunday, March 20, 2016
Roosevelt Gala
I'm inviting my friends to the 2016 Roosevelt Gala at the Visalia
Convention Center on April 9. At this banquet I'll be receiving an honor
for my many years of work for progressive causes and candidates, and I
would love to share the evening with you. California State Senate
President Pro Tem Kevin de Leon will be the keynote speaker. I've posted
the flyer below. I would love to see you there! Reserve your tickets,
let me know you are coming, and I will ask the organizers to seat you in our bloc of tables.
Monday, March 14, 2016
March 15 Primaries: What to Look For
Five populous states rich in delegates will be up for grabs in tomorrow's March 15 primary contests. The main question to be answered in these important primaries is whether the Democratic and Republican challengers can blunt the momentum of front runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in their respective races. We'll start with the Democrats first.
Democrats
Hillary Clinton starts with a 215-delegate lead among pledged delegates elected so far, 766 to 551. Among the roughly 700 superdelegates, who can vote for whomever they wish, she has been endorsed so far by 461 while only 25 have have declared they are backing Bernie Sanders. Sanders's strategy thus has to be to win states by convincing enough margins that he overcomes Clinton's pledged delegate lead and also makes superdelegates change their minds.
North Carolina has 107 delegates at stake. Polls show Clinton ahead by an average of 24 points, 57 to 33 percent. Her lead has been shrinking, so let me generously (for Bernie) project that she holds on by a narrow 52-48 margin. That would give Hillary 56 delegates and Bernie 51.
Florida has a trove of 214 delegates. Clinton is way ahead in all polls. Her average lead is 29 points, 61 percent to 32. If we give Bernie all the undecideds and call the outcome 60-40 for Hillary, she will come home with 128 delegates and he will get 86.
Ohio sends 143 delegates to the Democratic convention in Philadelphia. Polls have Clinton up by an average of 8 points, 51 to 43. Her lead has been shrinking, so let's suppose Sanders nips her at the wire and wins by an eyelash. Call it 72 delegates for the Bern, 71 for Hillary.
Illinois elects 156 Democratic delegates. Polls show a virtual dead heat, with the Secretary up by 48-46 over the Senator. Again, momentum is moving Sanders's way, so we'll project another buzzer beater win for the Vermonter: 79 delegates to 77.
Missouri chooses 71 delegates. It's another state in which polls give Clinton a narrow lead, 46-43 in this case. Once again, let's presume the challenger closes the gap and ekes out a victory, 36 delegates to 35.
The end of all this, which I've shaded toward Sanders in every case, is two wins for Clinton, one of them solid, and three close wins for Sanders. The important factor is that Hillary has her biggest lead in the biggest state with the most delegates, Florida. The end of all this results in 367 delegates won for her and 324 delegates won for him. Hillary stands to increase her lead by around 43 delegates, giving her 1133 pledged delegates to Bernie's 875 by the end of the night. With 4,000 total pledged delegates to be won by the end of the primary season, this means Sanders would need to win 1,126 of the 1,992 delegates in the remaining primaries and caucuses to catch up. That means winning every state by an average of 56.5% to 43.5%, a 13-point margin. That is, frankly, a very tall order. If you add in the superdelegates, she will be ahead 1594 to 900, and would need only 788 of the 2270 delegates of both types to win the nomination. That's only 35 percent. So, unless there is a severe collapse in Clinton's support, she has to be considered the prohibitive favorite to be the nominee. On election night, watch the returns from North Carolina first, then Florida. If North Carolina is going Bernie's way, the miracle for him could be happening. If Clinton isn't rolling up a big margin in Florida it portends major problems for her in the states that report in later. But if they are going according to form, Hillary Clinton will be one step closer to the Democratic nomination.
Republicans
Donald Trump has a 90-delegate lead on Ted Cruz, his closest pursuer. Marco Rubio and John Kasich trail farther behind. The current count is Trump 460, Cruz 370, Rubio 163 and Kasich 63. That gives Trump 44% of the delegates awarded so far, tantalizingly close to the 50 percent pace he needs to secure the nomination on the first ballot. The clear leader in four of the five states at issue, he stands a good chance to add to that percentage when the votes are counted from this next round.
North Carolina offers 72 GOP delegates. Trump enjoys a 12-point polling margin on Cruz there 41-29, with Kasich (11) and Rubio (9) being non-factors. Prediction: 35 delegates for Trump, 28 for Cruz, 5 for Kasich and 4 for Rubio.
Florida has 99 delegates on the table, and the state is winner take all. It's do or die for Rubio in his home state, and it's not looking good for him. Average surveys have Trump at 43, Rubio at 24, Cruz with 19 and Kasich at 9. Chalk up 99 delegates for the Donald.
Ohio has 66 at stake and it's also winner take all. As with Rubio in Florida, it's win or go home for John Kasich in the Buckeye state. But this time, it looks like Ohio Republicans are turning to their home state governor. It's still close: surveys give Kasich an average of 38 to Trump's 34, but the trend has been moving his way, so I'll predict a Kasich win. Besides, if he doesn't the race is practically over. So 66 delegates for John Kasich.
Illinois has 69 delegates, to be distributed proportionally. Polls say Trump 35, Cruz 26, Cruz 18 and Rubio 13. If that's how it comes down Trump will win 28, Cruz 21, Kasich 12 and Rubio 8.
Missouri wraps up the day's voting with 52 delegates. It has a GOP allotment process that I'll call "winner take most." There's only been one poll there, and it shows Trump 36 percent, Cruz 29, Rubio 9 and Kasich 8. If that is accurate Trump will win 36 delegates and Cruz will take in 16.
Four wins for the night for Trump would give him 198 of the 358 delegates at stake. Kasich, thanks primarily to winning Ohio, would get 83. Cruz would add 65 and Rubio 12. The standings at the end of the day would read Trump 658, Cruz 435, Rubio 175 and Kasich 146. With 1,058 delegates left in the contests ahead, Trump would need 579 to lock down the nomination, 54.7% of all those still to be won. Rubio would likely have to exit the race after losing Florida, leaving Kasich as the remaining conventional Republican hope. There are still several winner take all contests left, especially the big prize of California. Unless Cruz can pull some unexpected upsets in places like Missouri, North Carolina and Illinois, the Trump train appears on track to steam its way to the nomination at Cleveland. And if Kasich doesn't win Ohio, that will become almost inevitable.
Democrats
Hillary Clinton starts with a 215-delegate lead among pledged delegates elected so far, 766 to 551. Among the roughly 700 superdelegates, who can vote for whomever they wish, she has been endorsed so far by 461 while only 25 have have declared they are backing Bernie Sanders. Sanders's strategy thus has to be to win states by convincing enough margins that he overcomes Clinton's pledged delegate lead and also makes superdelegates change their minds.
North Carolina has 107 delegates at stake. Polls show Clinton ahead by an average of 24 points, 57 to 33 percent. Her lead has been shrinking, so let me generously (for Bernie) project that she holds on by a narrow 52-48 margin. That would give Hillary 56 delegates and Bernie 51.
Florida has a trove of 214 delegates. Clinton is way ahead in all polls. Her average lead is 29 points, 61 percent to 32. If we give Bernie all the undecideds and call the outcome 60-40 for Hillary, she will come home with 128 delegates and he will get 86.
Ohio sends 143 delegates to the Democratic convention in Philadelphia. Polls have Clinton up by an average of 8 points, 51 to 43. Her lead has been shrinking, so let's suppose Sanders nips her at the wire and wins by an eyelash. Call it 72 delegates for the Bern, 71 for Hillary.
Illinois elects 156 Democratic delegates. Polls show a virtual dead heat, with the Secretary up by 48-46 over the Senator. Again, momentum is moving Sanders's way, so we'll project another buzzer beater win for the Vermonter: 79 delegates to 77.
Missouri chooses 71 delegates. It's another state in which polls give Clinton a narrow lead, 46-43 in this case. Once again, let's presume the challenger closes the gap and ekes out a victory, 36 delegates to 35.
The end of all this, which I've shaded toward Sanders in every case, is two wins for Clinton, one of them solid, and three close wins for Sanders. The important factor is that Hillary has her biggest lead in the biggest state with the most delegates, Florida. The end of all this results in 367 delegates won for her and 324 delegates won for him. Hillary stands to increase her lead by around 43 delegates, giving her 1133 pledged delegates to Bernie's 875 by the end of the night. With 4,000 total pledged delegates to be won by the end of the primary season, this means Sanders would need to win 1,126 of the 1,992 delegates in the remaining primaries and caucuses to catch up. That means winning every state by an average of 56.5% to 43.5%, a 13-point margin. That is, frankly, a very tall order. If you add in the superdelegates, she will be ahead 1594 to 900, and would need only 788 of the 2270 delegates of both types to win the nomination. That's only 35 percent. So, unless there is a severe collapse in Clinton's support, she has to be considered the prohibitive favorite to be the nominee. On election night, watch the returns from North Carolina first, then Florida. If North Carolina is going Bernie's way, the miracle for him could be happening. If Clinton isn't rolling up a big margin in Florida it portends major problems for her in the states that report in later. But if they are going according to form, Hillary Clinton will be one step closer to the Democratic nomination.
Republicans
Donald Trump has a 90-delegate lead on Ted Cruz, his closest pursuer. Marco Rubio and John Kasich trail farther behind. The current count is Trump 460, Cruz 370, Rubio 163 and Kasich 63. That gives Trump 44% of the delegates awarded so far, tantalizingly close to the 50 percent pace he needs to secure the nomination on the first ballot. The clear leader in four of the five states at issue, he stands a good chance to add to that percentage when the votes are counted from this next round.
North Carolina offers 72 GOP delegates. Trump enjoys a 12-point polling margin on Cruz there 41-29, with Kasich (11) and Rubio (9) being non-factors. Prediction: 35 delegates for Trump, 28 for Cruz, 5 for Kasich and 4 for Rubio.
Florida has 99 delegates on the table, and the state is winner take all. It's do or die for Rubio in his home state, and it's not looking good for him. Average surveys have Trump at 43, Rubio at 24, Cruz with 19 and Kasich at 9. Chalk up 99 delegates for the Donald.
Ohio has 66 at stake and it's also winner take all. As with Rubio in Florida, it's win or go home for John Kasich in the Buckeye state. But this time, it looks like Ohio Republicans are turning to their home state governor. It's still close: surveys give Kasich an average of 38 to Trump's 34, but the trend has been moving his way, so I'll predict a Kasich win. Besides, if he doesn't the race is practically over. So 66 delegates for John Kasich.
Illinois has 69 delegates, to be distributed proportionally. Polls say Trump 35, Cruz 26, Cruz 18 and Rubio 13. If that's how it comes down Trump will win 28, Cruz 21, Kasich 12 and Rubio 8.
Missouri wraps up the day's voting with 52 delegates. It has a GOP allotment process that I'll call "winner take most." There's only been one poll there, and it shows Trump 36 percent, Cruz 29, Rubio 9 and Kasich 8. If that is accurate Trump will win 36 delegates and Cruz will take in 16.
Four wins for the night for Trump would give him 198 of the 358 delegates at stake. Kasich, thanks primarily to winning Ohio, would get 83. Cruz would add 65 and Rubio 12. The standings at the end of the day would read Trump 658, Cruz 435, Rubio 175 and Kasich 146. With 1,058 delegates left in the contests ahead, Trump would need 579 to lock down the nomination, 54.7% of all those still to be won. Rubio would likely have to exit the race after losing Florida, leaving Kasich as the remaining conventional Republican hope. There are still several winner take all contests left, especially the big prize of California. Unless Cruz can pull some unexpected upsets in places like Missouri, North Carolina and Illinois, the Trump train appears on track to steam its way to the nomination at Cleveland. And if Kasich doesn't win Ohio, that will become almost inevitable.
Thursday, March 10, 2016
Republican and I Share Views at Forum
Last night I participated in a friendly and stimulating discussion at the Lindsay Cultural Arts Forum. About 40 people attended the event titled "Where's the Party?" I presented on Democratic/liberal perspectives and issue positions. My COS History colleague Stephen Tootle then presented on Republican/conservative beliefs and issue positions. Afterward, we took questions from the floor, alternating with Stephen answering first on one question and I answering first on the next. Tom Elson, a COS adjunct Philosophy Professor and retired minister, did a terrific job as moderator. His engaging personality and sparkling wit made the event a lot of fun. We supported our basic philosophies and positions, but also found areas of common ground.
In my 20-minute talk I showed my PowerPoint titled "Democratic Ideals: Meeting Human Needs with Compassion and Practicality." I discussed the values that underlie Democratic thought, things like justice, community, security and the four freedoms. (Enunciated by Franklin Roosevelt, the Four Freedoms are freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom from want and freedom from fear.) Implicit in the last two freedoms is the role of a democracy in taking proactive steps to foster prosperity and security in society and for its members. That is the liberal perspective that animates Democratic thought. I also highlighted Democratic achievements in civil rights and the economy. Stephen related the underlying conservative affinity for tradition, suspicion of government action and desire to encourage individual responsibility that are important to Republican thinking.
There were some interesting questions form the audience. Most people at the forum were repelled by the success of Donald Trump in the Republican nomination contest. When I was asked for an idea for reducing polarization, I mentioned the need to get the big private money out of the campaign process. Stephen told of his experience that in local government problem-solving, partisanship rarely seems to matter.
We found common ground. One such matter was gun control, where he granted that if Republicans could trust that liberals were not intent on confiscating guns from law-abiding citizens they could go along with background checks and limitations on gun types. He remained skeptical on human-caused climate change, but said he shared the goal of making the air cleaner. He proposed that we could make incremental change on issues like medical care, where Republicans might favor programs for the truly needy. Our discussion was a good model of civil discourse in these highly polarized times.
In my 20-minute talk I showed my PowerPoint titled "Democratic Ideals: Meeting Human Needs with Compassion and Practicality." I discussed the values that underlie Democratic thought, things like justice, community, security and the four freedoms. (Enunciated by Franklin Roosevelt, the Four Freedoms are freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom from want and freedom from fear.) Implicit in the last two freedoms is the role of a democracy in taking proactive steps to foster prosperity and security in society and for its members. That is the liberal perspective that animates Democratic thought. I also highlighted Democratic achievements in civil rights and the economy. Stephen related the underlying conservative affinity for tradition, suspicion of government action and desire to encourage individual responsibility that are important to Republican thinking.
There were some interesting questions form the audience. Most people at the forum were repelled by the success of Donald Trump in the Republican nomination contest. When I was asked for an idea for reducing polarization, I mentioned the need to get the big private money out of the campaign process. Stephen told of his experience that in local government problem-solving, partisanship rarely seems to matter.
We found common ground. One such matter was gun control, where he granted that if Republicans could trust that liberals were not intent on confiscating guns from law-abiding citizens they could go along with background checks and limitations on gun types. He remained skeptical on human-caused climate change, but said he shared the goal of making the air cleaner. He proposed that we could make incremental change on issues like medical care, where Republicans might favor programs for the truly needy. Our discussion was a good model of civil discourse in these highly polarized times.
Friday, March 4, 2016
The Meaning of Super Tuesday
The March 1 "Super Tuesday" presidential election contests clarified matters for both parties, putting Hillary Clinton in the driver's seat for the Democratic nomination and giving Donald Trump the inside track for the Republican nomination. By itself, Super Tuesday didn't clinch things for either front-runner. But it did make things a whole lot tougher for the pursuers. Both races are like a football game with one team 21 points ahead at halftime. We'll look first at the Democrats and then the Republicans. If you want more, here's a link to an excellent Wall Street Journal spread on the delegate race and the upcoming calendar.
Democrats Hillary Clinton did well on Super Tuesday. She captured 7 states and 504 delegates. Bernie Sanders took 4 states and 340 delegates. Clinton thus increased her delegate lead by 164. She now has earned 599 pledged delegates to Bernie Sanders's 407, a margin of 192. There will be about 4,000 pledged delegates at the convention, so to secure a majority of them in Philadelphia Secretary Clinton would need to win 1402 of the remaining 3000 to be elected, or 47% of them. Senator Sanders would need 1594, or 53%. So, since in the Democratic contest there are no "winner take all" primaries, it would seem Sanders is definitely still in the race. He would need to consistently outperform Clinton by about 6% from now on to win.
But then there are the "Superdelegates." These are about 700 Democratic elected officials who automatically also get a vote at the convention. They can vote for whomever they wish, unlike pledged delegates elected in primaries or in the voter caucuses who are obligated to vote for the candidate they were elected to represent on the first ballot at the convention. About 70% of these superdelegates have already committed to a candidate; 457 of them have said they will be voting for Hillary Clinton and only 22 have declared for Bernie Sanders. If you add the supers in with the primary delegates, Clinton now has 1056 convention delegates and Sanders has just 429. It's going to take 2,383 delegates (of the 4775 at the convention) to get the nomination. So that means there are 3290 delegates left. With 1056 already in her tote bag, Clinton needs only 1,327 of them to secure the nomination. That's just 41%. Bernie Sanders would need 1,954, or 59% to clinch. Winning by an average of 6% in every contest would be difficult but conceivable. But winning primary after primary by an average of 18% is a near impossibility. Given this reality, a Sanders nomination is a real longshot.
To look a little more closely, Clinton won in blowout fashion across the South, carrying the six states of Georgia, Virginia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas and Texas all by better than two to one majorities. She also took an upset win in Massachusetts, edging Sanders there by 1 %. The four states Sanders won were by solid margins: Oklahoma by 10 points, his home state of Vermont in a 72-point landslide, and caucuses by 24 points in Minnesota and 19 in Colorado. So does that mean that since most of the remaining states won't be in the South that Bernie has a great chance to catch up? Well, not if the polls are right. Clinton's average lead in polls of the March 8 Michigan primary is 17%. She is up by an average of 24 points in Florida and 15 points in Ohio for those two March 15 contests. Those are big states with lots of delegates. Sanders needs to make up a lot of ground in less than two weeks or his chances will evaporate. Unless the FBI investigation of her e-mail problems mortally wounds the former Secretary of State, it appears her message of experience, detailed policy proposals and her strength with women and minorities will carry her through to victory and the Democratic nomination.
Republicans Donald Trump had a very good night on Super Tuesday. Like Clinton, he won 7 states, in the process taking 221 delegates of the 523 at stake. Ted Cruz had a good night too. The Texas Senator won three states and garnered 195 delegates. Florida Senator Marco Rubio remained relevant, winning one state and 85 delegates. Ohio Governor John Kasich got 19 delegates and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson got 3 before dropping out of the race. There will be 2,473 delegates at the Republican convention in Cleveland, with 1237 needed to win. In the overall race Trump now has 319 delegates, Cruz 226, Rubio 110 and Kasich 25. Carson has 8 and Jeb Bush has 3. That means about 690 delegates have been allotted. There are still about 1783 still to be won.
To get to 1237 Trump would need 918 of those 1783, a little over 51%. That certainly seems to be a reasonable prospect for his candidacy. It becomes even more probable given a unique feature of the GOP nomination process. They don't have superdelegates, but they do have some "winner take all" primaries. These include some big states with major delegate hauls up for grabs. On March 15 Florida will offer a 99-delegate winner-take-all contest and Ohio will have 66-delegate prize. Those states are assuming a "do or die" level of importance for Marco Rubio and John Kasich, respectively. If Rubio gets shut out in his home state of Florida it's hard to see a credible victory scenario for him going forward. He's only won one state, Minnesota, and that was a caucus. If anything, Kasich is even more dependent on winning his home state of Ohio. Though he came close to beating Trump in Vermont, Kasich has yet to score a win in 2016. Victory in Ohio is the only realistic way he can establish his viability and set up chances to contend in other nearby Great Lakes states such as Pennsylvania, Indiana and Wisconsin.
Looking more closely at Tuesday's results, Trump was the only candidate who showed solid popularity across the board. He won substantial pluralities in the Southern states of Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee, and ran up a lopsided plurality in Massachusetts. He narrowly edged out Cruz in Arkansas, Rubio in Virginia and Kasich in Vermont. Trump came in second everywhere he didn't win except Minnesota. Cruz won a 6-point victory in Oklahoma, a 16-point triumph in Texas and a 2-point squeaker in the Alaska caucuses. He came in second in Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas and Minnesota. Rubio managed his first win by 8 points in the Minnesota caucuses and came in second in Georgia, Virginia and Massachusetts. So the good news for Trump is that his muscular persona and positions seem to have adherents throughout the GOP electorate. Cruz is strong with evangelicals and does well in conservative areas. Rubio is the current establishment hope, and Kasich seeks to become that. He has certainly cornered the market on being the picture of the mature, responsible candidate in this group. The anti-Trump candidates can take heart in the knowledge that the mogul has yet to crack 50% in any of these contests. Yet even so, they still have to beat him, and the polls offer little cause for optimism. Polls give the New York businessman a 17-point lead in Michigan and 24 in Mississippi, which vote Tuesday, March 8. He's up by 18 in Florida's March 15 primary, and has a narrow 5-point lead on Kasich in Ohio, which will be decided on the same day. The next couple of weeks should tell the tale. It could be down to Trump and Cruz, with Trump the prohibitive favorite, 10 days from today.
Democrats Hillary Clinton did well on Super Tuesday. She captured 7 states and 504 delegates. Bernie Sanders took 4 states and 340 delegates. Clinton thus increased her delegate lead by 164. She now has earned 599 pledged delegates to Bernie Sanders's 407, a margin of 192. There will be about 4,000 pledged delegates at the convention, so to secure a majority of them in Philadelphia Secretary Clinton would need to win 1402 of the remaining 3000 to be elected, or 47% of them. Senator Sanders would need 1594, or 53%. So, since in the Democratic contest there are no "winner take all" primaries, it would seem Sanders is definitely still in the race. He would need to consistently outperform Clinton by about 6% from now on to win.
But then there are the "Superdelegates." These are about 700 Democratic elected officials who automatically also get a vote at the convention. They can vote for whomever they wish, unlike pledged delegates elected in primaries or in the voter caucuses who are obligated to vote for the candidate they were elected to represent on the first ballot at the convention. About 70% of these superdelegates have already committed to a candidate; 457 of them have said they will be voting for Hillary Clinton and only 22 have declared for Bernie Sanders. If you add the supers in with the primary delegates, Clinton now has 1056 convention delegates and Sanders has just 429. It's going to take 2,383 delegates (of the 4775 at the convention) to get the nomination. So that means there are 3290 delegates left. With 1056 already in her tote bag, Clinton needs only 1,327 of them to secure the nomination. That's just 41%. Bernie Sanders would need 1,954, or 59% to clinch. Winning by an average of 6% in every contest would be difficult but conceivable. But winning primary after primary by an average of 18% is a near impossibility. Given this reality, a Sanders nomination is a real longshot.
To look a little more closely, Clinton won in blowout fashion across the South, carrying the six states of Georgia, Virginia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas and Texas all by better than two to one majorities. She also took an upset win in Massachusetts, edging Sanders there by 1 %. The four states Sanders won were by solid margins: Oklahoma by 10 points, his home state of Vermont in a 72-point landslide, and caucuses by 24 points in Minnesota and 19 in Colorado. So does that mean that since most of the remaining states won't be in the South that Bernie has a great chance to catch up? Well, not if the polls are right. Clinton's average lead in polls of the March 8 Michigan primary is 17%. She is up by an average of 24 points in Florida and 15 points in Ohio for those two March 15 contests. Those are big states with lots of delegates. Sanders needs to make up a lot of ground in less than two weeks or his chances will evaporate. Unless the FBI investigation of her e-mail problems mortally wounds the former Secretary of State, it appears her message of experience, detailed policy proposals and her strength with women and minorities will carry her through to victory and the Democratic nomination.
Republicans Donald Trump had a very good night on Super Tuesday. Like Clinton, he won 7 states, in the process taking 221 delegates of the 523 at stake. Ted Cruz had a good night too. The Texas Senator won three states and garnered 195 delegates. Florida Senator Marco Rubio remained relevant, winning one state and 85 delegates. Ohio Governor John Kasich got 19 delegates and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson got 3 before dropping out of the race. There will be 2,473 delegates at the Republican convention in Cleveland, with 1237 needed to win. In the overall race Trump now has 319 delegates, Cruz 226, Rubio 110 and Kasich 25. Carson has 8 and Jeb Bush has 3. That means about 690 delegates have been allotted. There are still about 1783 still to be won.
To get to 1237 Trump would need 918 of those 1783, a little over 51%. That certainly seems to be a reasonable prospect for his candidacy. It becomes even more probable given a unique feature of the GOP nomination process. They don't have superdelegates, but they do have some "winner take all" primaries. These include some big states with major delegate hauls up for grabs. On March 15 Florida will offer a 99-delegate winner-take-all contest and Ohio will have 66-delegate prize. Those states are assuming a "do or die" level of importance for Marco Rubio and John Kasich, respectively. If Rubio gets shut out in his home state of Florida it's hard to see a credible victory scenario for him going forward. He's only won one state, Minnesota, and that was a caucus. If anything, Kasich is even more dependent on winning his home state of Ohio. Though he came close to beating Trump in Vermont, Kasich has yet to score a win in 2016. Victory in Ohio is the only realistic way he can establish his viability and set up chances to contend in other nearby Great Lakes states such as Pennsylvania, Indiana and Wisconsin.
Looking more closely at Tuesday's results, Trump was the only candidate who showed solid popularity across the board. He won substantial pluralities in the Southern states of Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee, and ran up a lopsided plurality in Massachusetts. He narrowly edged out Cruz in Arkansas, Rubio in Virginia and Kasich in Vermont. Trump came in second everywhere he didn't win except Minnesota. Cruz won a 6-point victory in Oklahoma, a 16-point triumph in Texas and a 2-point squeaker in the Alaska caucuses. He came in second in Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas and Minnesota. Rubio managed his first win by 8 points in the Minnesota caucuses and came in second in Georgia, Virginia and Massachusetts. So the good news for Trump is that his muscular persona and positions seem to have adherents throughout the GOP electorate. Cruz is strong with evangelicals and does well in conservative areas. Rubio is the current establishment hope, and Kasich seeks to become that. He has certainly cornered the market on being the picture of the mature, responsible candidate in this group. The anti-Trump candidates can take heart in the knowledge that the mogul has yet to crack 50% in any of these contests. Yet even so, they still have to beat him, and the polls offer little cause for optimism. Polls give the New York businessman a 17-point lead in Michigan and 24 in Mississippi, which vote Tuesday, March 8. He's up by 18 in Florida's March 15 primary, and has a narrow 5-point lead on Kasich in Ohio, which will be decided on the same day. The next couple of weeks should tell the tale. It could be down to Trump and Cruz, with Trump the prohibitive favorite, 10 days from today.
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