The U.S. Senate is the big prize still to be determined in Tuesday's election, and it could go either way. The Senate is the arena that will decide whether President Barack Obama has an opposition congress in both houses or only one. It is already highly likely Republicans will gain the majority of governorships and take control of the House of Representatives. For the record, I forecast the GOP will enjoy a net gain of seven state houses, thereby turning a 26-24 Democratic advantage into a 31-19 Republican edge. In the House I see a 55-seat turnover which will change the present 255-178 Democratic advantage (with two vacancies) to a 233-202 majority for the GOP. But now back to the Senate.
Democrats have 59 seats in the Senate; Republicans have 41. Thirty-seven seats are contested this year, 19 held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans. Republicans will need a net gain of ten seats to win a 51-49 majority. It is clear they will pick up seats but can they get ten? Yes, it is possible, but the most likely result is tantalizingly close: they are likely to gain eight or nine. Let's look at all the close races in turn. Eleven Democratic seats are in greater or lesser degrees of jeopardy. By paying attention to these on election night you will be able to tell what is happening.
Let's start with the three Democratic seats in conservative states they are certain to lose.
1) North Dakota. With Byron Dorgan retiring, Democrat Tracy Potter is behind Republican John Hoeven by more than two to one.
2) Indiana. Popular Senator Evan Bayh is retiring. Dan Coats (R) leads Brad Ellsworth (D) by an average of 19%.
3) Arkansas. Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D) trails John Boozman (R) by 17.
The fourth likely Republican pickup endangers a three-term incumbent.
4) Wisconsin. Russ Feingold (D) is running behind Ron Johnson (R) by an average of 7.7% in recent surveys. It would be a small miracle for him to pull this one out now.
A third group of contests includes races for current Democratic seats where the numbers are close but favor the Republican.
5) Nevada. Majority leader Harry Reid (D) is down an average of 4 points to tea party favorite Sharon Engle. This one is still being called a tossup but is probably hers unless Reid's get out the vote effort is remarkable. Only 6% of voters say they remain undecided.
6) Pennsylvania. Former Republican turned Democrat Arlen Specter was defeated in the primary by Joe Sestak (D), who now trails conservative Republican Pat Toomey by 3.8%. In a normal year Sestak would win this state but this is not such a year.
7) Illinois. Mark Kirk (R) is up 2.8 points over Alexi Giannoulias (D) in an average of several polls for President Obama's old seat. This is a race where both candidates have flaws. The President will campaign for Giannoulias Sunday and Monday and 16% of the voters are still undecided, so it could go the other way. But a Democrat still behind in heavily Democratic Illinois at this stage is obviously in trouble.
8) Colorado. Ken Buck (R) leads Michael Bennet (D) by an average of 2.3% in recent surveys. Benet was appointed to complete the term of Ken Salazar, now Secretary of the Interior in the Obama Administration. Buck's lead is small but has been consistent in the last few weeks, indicating Bennet does not seem to have closing momentum.
The eight races summarized so far would get the Republicans close, to 49. What do they need to get them over the top? This next group of three races are their tougher opportunities. They need one to forge a 50-50 tie in the Senate, and two out of three to gain the majority.
9) Washington. Incumbent Patty Murray (D) is in a statistical dead heat with Dino Rossi (R). Washington is normally a pretty liberal state, which would seem to favor Murray, but Rossi has the recent momentum in the polls. Clearly this could go either way, but in this year's environment it is tough to bet against Rossi.
10) California. Three-term incumbent Barbara Boxer (D) has been a GOP target for years and this time they are giving her a real run for it. Wealthy former Hewlitt-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) is self-funding her challenge to Boxer. It appears she will fall short, though. The latest group of surveys has Boxer up by an average of 4.3 points. This has closed from six points in the past couple of weeks, but time is very short now. It's a probable Democratic hold.
11) West Virginia. The last reasonably possible Republican Senate gain is in the Mountaineer State, where popular Governor Jim Manchin (D) leads John Raese (R) by 4.5%. At this point Raese has only an outside chance. But in a socially conservative state in this election environment it's a chance that cannot be dismissed.
Are there any currently Republican-held Senate seats where Democrats might conceivably take one away? The three most possible are Kentucky, Missouri and Alaska, but none are very likely. In Kentucky, tea partier Rand Paul (R) is out in front of Jack Conway (D) by 9.8%. In Missouri Roy Blunt (R) leads Robin Carnahan (D) by 10.4%. Watch Kentucky, which should report early. If Paul is not coasting that would indicate the Democrats are going to do much better than expected this year. Alaska is a special case, where incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski lost the Republican nomination to tea party choice Joe Miller. She entered the general election race as a write in and has surged ahead of Miller 37 to 27. The Democratic nominee, Scott McAdams, lags behind both with 23. It is just possible that if Murkowski and Miller split the conservative vote down the middle McAdams might sneak in with a 35% win in the three-way race. Murkowski has another problem, in that a court has ruled people must spell her name correctly for her to get their write-in votes.
Realistically, a Democratic win in any of these three states is not at all probable on Tuesday. Republicans will most likely pick up eight or nine Senate seats and go into the next Congress with 49 or 50 votes in the 100-seat upper chamber. If they gain nine and the Senate is evenly divided, expect Vice President Joe Biden to be a busy fellow for the next two years. According to the Constitution, the Vice President casts the tie breaking vote in a deadlocked Senate.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Take the U.S. Religious Knowledge Quiz
Here's an interesting item. Click on the link to take the U.S. Religious Knowledge Quiz from Pew Research. Then compare your performance against the norm. Even though the U.S. is a highly religious country, the average American got only half the answers right.
You can also check and see a number of results, such as the finding that Jews got the highest average score of 65%, followed closely by atheists/agnostics at 64%! You might be surprised who scored low, and which questions were the toughest and easiest.
As a pluralistic society ourselves and one heavily involved in many parts of the world, it would behoove the American populace to have a reasonable understanding of major world faiths. Though this survey shows we are not completely ignorant, it makes clear we have a ways to go.
You can also check and see a number of results, such as the finding that Jews got the highest average score of 65%, followed closely by atheists/agnostics at 64%! You might be surprised who scored low, and which questions were the toughest and easiest.
As a pluralistic society ourselves and one heavily involved in many parts of the world, it would behoove the American populace to have a reasonable understanding of major world faiths. Though this survey shows we are not completely ignorant, it makes clear we have a ways to go.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Sad Appeal to "Little Guy"
This morning's paper carried an Associated Press article titled "Palin Says 'little guy' Key in Vote." "Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin said Friday that the country needs to elect business-minded candidates who will not sell out their principles for the sake of bipartisanship." Oh. And the "regular" Republicans these past two years have been models of the infection of bipartisanship?
She went on, "This election is about the little guy, the common man, independence, and the middle class--those forgotten and ignored for too long, and now they're fighting back." The Tea Party of late and Big Conservatism in general for the past 40 years have done one of the best jobs of ironically effective misdirection of angst in modern times. Notice how she knits together a list of identifiers that describe the majority of society and links it to disaffection and defensive umbrage--yes, she's talking about me, and look how abused we are--and then continues with, "We want those business-oriented folks in Washington not to be there singing 'Kumbaya' with the people who caused the problems in the first place."
And what problems are those, that affect the little guy of the middle class so strongly? First would be the Wall Street meltdown and foreclosure crisis, caused by the reckless unregulated practices of big business. Next would be the jobs crisis, caused by big business outsourcing all those middle class jobs overseas. Third might be an opportunity crisis, characterized by such things as the college cost crunch, public school deterioration and infrastructure decline, fueled by the success of big business and the wealthy at getting their tax burdens reduced so that more and more has to be borne by "little guys" who cannot afford it. Now in the wake of the Citizens United court ruling, $50 million in secret contributions from big business is pouring into the election campaign on behalf of the Republican cause. No doubt we are expected to believe their largess is donated not to further GOP support for corporate interests but due to the multinationals' concern for the 'little guy.'
Disaffection in the white working and lower middle class is real and understandable. Their standard of living has been getting inexorably squeezed for the past thirty years. The Koch brothers, Coors family, Rupert Murdoch and a handful of like-minded rightist billionaires have been working assiduously for at least that long to misdirect the chain of causation for that away from themselves for even longer. All the poor, aggrieved little guy has to do is turn ever more authority over to the tycoons who have rigged the system against him and require less and less of a societal contribution from those who have been driving him to desperation and all will be well. It would be laughable if it weren't so tragically sad.
She went on, "This election is about the little guy, the common man, independence, and the middle class--those forgotten and ignored for too long, and now they're fighting back." The Tea Party of late and Big Conservatism in general for the past 40 years have done one of the best jobs of ironically effective misdirection of angst in modern times. Notice how she knits together a list of identifiers that describe the majority of society and links it to disaffection and defensive umbrage--yes, she's talking about me, and look how abused we are--and then continues with, "We want those business-oriented folks in Washington not to be there singing 'Kumbaya' with the people who caused the problems in the first place."
And what problems are those, that affect the little guy of the middle class so strongly? First would be the Wall Street meltdown and foreclosure crisis, caused by the reckless unregulated practices of big business. Next would be the jobs crisis, caused by big business outsourcing all those middle class jobs overseas. Third might be an opportunity crisis, characterized by such things as the college cost crunch, public school deterioration and infrastructure decline, fueled by the success of big business and the wealthy at getting their tax burdens reduced so that more and more has to be borne by "little guys" who cannot afford it. Now in the wake of the Citizens United court ruling, $50 million in secret contributions from big business is pouring into the election campaign on behalf of the Republican cause. No doubt we are expected to believe their largess is donated not to further GOP support for corporate interests but due to the multinationals' concern for the 'little guy.'
Disaffection in the white working and lower middle class is real and understandable. Their standard of living has been getting inexorably squeezed for the past thirty years. The Koch brothers, Coors family, Rupert Murdoch and a handful of like-minded rightist billionaires have been working assiduously for at least that long to misdirect the chain of causation for that away from themselves for even longer. All the poor, aggrieved little guy has to do is turn ever more authority over to the tycoons who have rigged the system against him and require less and less of a societal contribution from those who have been driving him to desperation and all will be well. It would be laughable if it weren't so tragically sad.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
California Budget Challenge
I'd like to invite you to the next public forum at 210 Connect, the monthly public affairs presentation that's sponsored by the Visalia Times-Delta and held at the 210 Center in downtown Visalia. I'll be on the panel. It's called "The California Budget Challenge: The People Show the Politicians How." Times-Delta Opinion Editor Paul Hurley will emcee the event that goes from 7:00 P.M. to 8:30 on Monday, October 11 at 210 Center Street. Also on the panel with me will be fellow COS Historian Stephen Tootle, COS Economist Christian Anderson and Tea Party member Deanna Martin-Soares.
A California budget program will be projected on the big screen. You can preview it and try to balance the budget yourself by going to ww.next10org/budgettool/site/thesim/flashcheck.html. There will be audience discussion and the people will vote on things, item by item. We panelists may be asked to comment from time. As the simulation makes clear, balancing the state budget is not an easy task. Try it yourself and see. Still, it is possible and I've done it a couple of different ways.
The important thing to me is to think long term instead of short term. For instance, Governor Schwarzenegger is reportedly going ahead with his shortsighted plan to sell an estimated $1.3 billion in state-owned buildings to help bridge the current deficit. The plan is foolish because state agencies would then need to lease them back from the private owners, and the 20-year cost has been estimated to be $5.2 billion in rent. Source. That's what I mean by short-term thinking winning out over responsible long-term planning. Sometimes you need to spend or invest now to save in the long run. It seems few look at things that way any more.
Anyway, come on out if you're free Monday night and we'll have a stimulating and hopefully instructive evening.
A California budget program will be projected on the big screen. You can preview it and try to balance the budget yourself by going to ww.next10org/budgettool/site/thesim/flashcheck.html. There will be audience discussion and the people will vote on things, item by item. We panelists may be asked to comment from time. As the simulation makes clear, balancing the state budget is not an easy task. Try it yourself and see. Still, it is possible and I've done it a couple of different ways.
The important thing to me is to think long term instead of short term. For instance, Governor Schwarzenegger is reportedly going ahead with his shortsighted plan to sell an estimated $1.3 billion in state-owned buildings to help bridge the current deficit. The plan is foolish because state agencies would then need to lease them back from the private owners, and the 20-year cost has been estimated to be $5.2 billion in rent. Source. That's what I mean by short-term thinking winning out over responsible long-term planning. Sometimes you need to spend or invest now to save in the long run. It seems few look at things that way any more.
Anyway, come on out if you're free Monday night and we'll have a stimulating and hopefully instructive evening.
Monday, October 4, 2010
November 2010 Propositions
People are getting their sample ballots and vote by mail ballots this week, so now is a good time to shed some light on the California propositions for this fall. Here's how I'm voting.
Proposition 19 Marijuana: No
I'm voting no on the marijuana initiative. Call me old fashioned. I just don't think more intoxicants is a good thing.
Proposition 20 Congressional Redistricting: Yes
This extends the mandate of the redistricting commission to draw the lines for Congressional Districts in addition to State Legislature seats as already enacted by Proposition 11. The panel of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 4 of neither party and acceptable to both is a good idea. We have a much better chance of getting more moderate and competitive districts than under the current system in which the legislature draws the lines to protect incumbents. At least three of each group has to vote yes on a plan.
Proposition 21 State Parks Funding: Yes
Adds a surcharge of $18 to vehicle licensing to raise $500 million a year to fund state parks. I love and support our state parks but would rather they were simply properly supported than set up a new revenue-expenditure link. Yet the vehicle registration fee's cut by Schwarzenegger takes $6 billion out of the budget. This would restore half a billion. A little is better than nothing, so I'm voting yes.
Proposition 22 Transportation or Local Government Funds: No
This would prohibit the state from "taking" transportation or local funds for state uses. Unfortunately, when the budget is out of whack and needs balancing it is not wise to restrict the ways it might have to be done. I'm therefore against this requirement.
Proposition 23 Suspends Air Pollution Laws Based on Unemployment Figures: No
This Texas oil-industry bankrolled initiative is as self-serving as the insurance and electric company special interest propositions that voters rejected in June. It is specious to suggest that meeting clean air standards causes unemployment. To the contrary, this could hold back the state's burgeoning solar and wind industry.
Proposition 24 Repeals Special Tax Breaks for Big Business: Yes
Would provide about $1.7 billion by closing loopholes enacted to get Republican votes to pass previously stalemated budgets.
Proposition 25 Simple Majority Budget: YES, YES, YES!
This allows the legislature to pass a budget by a simple majority vote instead of two-thirds. By passing this the era of budget gridlock and late budgets will end. This is the most important proposition on the ballot.
Proposition 26 Mandates 2/3 Vote to pass fees: No
This ties the legislature's hands more than already.
Proposition 27 Eliminates State Commission on Redistricting: No
This is a last-ditch proposal by the politicians to let them keep drawing their own district lines. It is transparently self-serving.
If you are voting by mail be sure to mail it in time to be received by Tuesday, November 2. If you miss that, take the ballot to any polling place on election day. There is a list of local polling place addresses in your voting materials.
Special Note: If you want to make a comment you may have to use Mozilla Firefox as your browswer. When using Internet Explorer some readers report it does not show the security password you need to type in.
Proposition 19 Marijuana: No
I'm voting no on the marijuana initiative. Call me old fashioned. I just don't think more intoxicants is a good thing.
Proposition 20 Congressional Redistricting: Yes
This extends the mandate of the redistricting commission to draw the lines for Congressional Districts in addition to State Legislature seats as already enacted by Proposition 11. The panel of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 4 of neither party and acceptable to both is a good idea. We have a much better chance of getting more moderate and competitive districts than under the current system in which the legislature draws the lines to protect incumbents. At least three of each group has to vote yes on a plan.
Proposition 21 State Parks Funding: Yes
Adds a surcharge of $18 to vehicle licensing to raise $500 million a year to fund state parks. I love and support our state parks but would rather they were simply properly supported than set up a new revenue-expenditure link. Yet the vehicle registration fee's cut by Schwarzenegger takes $6 billion out of the budget. This would restore half a billion. A little is better than nothing, so I'm voting yes.
Proposition 22 Transportation or Local Government Funds: No
This would prohibit the state from "taking" transportation or local funds for state uses. Unfortunately, when the budget is out of whack and needs balancing it is not wise to restrict the ways it might have to be done. I'm therefore against this requirement.
Proposition 23 Suspends Air Pollution Laws Based on Unemployment Figures: No
This Texas oil-industry bankrolled initiative is as self-serving as the insurance and electric company special interest propositions that voters rejected in June. It is specious to suggest that meeting clean air standards causes unemployment. To the contrary, this could hold back the state's burgeoning solar and wind industry.
Proposition 24 Repeals Special Tax Breaks for Big Business: Yes
Would provide about $1.7 billion by closing loopholes enacted to get Republican votes to pass previously stalemated budgets.
Proposition 25 Simple Majority Budget: YES, YES, YES!
This allows the legislature to pass a budget by a simple majority vote instead of two-thirds. By passing this the era of budget gridlock and late budgets will end. This is the most important proposition on the ballot.
Proposition 26 Mandates 2/3 Vote to pass fees: No
This ties the legislature's hands more than already.
Proposition 27 Eliminates State Commission on Redistricting: No
This is a last-ditch proposal by the politicians to let them keep drawing their own district lines. It is transparently self-serving.
If you are voting by mail be sure to mail it in time to be received by Tuesday, November 2. If you miss that, take the ballot to any polling place on election day. There is a list of local polling place addresses in your voting materials.
Special Note: If you want to make a comment you may have to use Mozilla Firefox as your browswer. When using Internet Explorer some readers report it does not show the security password you need to type in.
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