The big news tonight is not Hillary Clinton's 40-point blowout win over Barack Obama in the West Virginia primary. That was expected and will not change the Democratic nomination race. No, the big news is that Democrat Travis Childers beat Republican Greg Davis in the special election in Mississippi's First Congressional District. It's a tsunami warning for Republican candidates all across the nation this year.
The seat became vacant when Republican Senator Trent Lott retired earlier this year. Republican Governor Haley Barbour appointed Roger Wicker, the First's 12-year incumbent, to fill Lott's vacated Senate seat. That left the First open and necessitated a special election to fill the post until the November general election. Neither Barbour nor Davis figured retaining the seat would be much of a problem. The northeast Mississippi district has been described as a "ruby red" Republican seat. President Bush carried the district by 24 points in 2004.
Trouble came seemingly out of nowhere when Childers won a plurality of 49% to 46% in the first round in April. The rules require the winner to get a majority, so a second round between only the top two finishers was scheduled for today. Childers bested Lewis 53% to 47% in today's voting, which saw a turnout 100,000 greater than in April.
Both candidates are white in the largely white district. Vice President Dick Cheney flew in to campaign for Lewis. Lewis ran ads with a sinister-sounding narrator backed up by monster-movie music repeating that Childers was endorsed by Barack Obama, Barack Obama, Barack Obama! In the ad, footage of Rev. Jeremiah Wright played next to an unflattering black and white photo of Childers while the Boris Karloff sound-alike narrator reminded viewers that Wright had cursed America, Obama was Wright's friend and Obama had endorsed Childers. Lewis lost anyway.
This marks the third straight time the Republicans have lost an ostensibly safe seat in a special election this year. It follows the election of Democrats Bill Foster to former House Speaker Denny Hastert's seat in Illinois and Don Cazayoux to a formerly safe Republican seat in Louisiana. If the Republicans cannot hold onto congressional seats like these it suggests the party is in major trouble with the voters this year. Iraq, the economy and the unpopularity of President Bush are like millstones around their necks. Democrats now hold 236 seats in the 435-member House of Representatives, continuing to extend the majority they won in 2006.
What lessons has the Republican leadership drawn from the debacle? Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) leads the Republican House campaign effort as Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. He sent out a statement to his party's congressmen saying the Mississippi results "should be a concern to all Republicans." He advised them to run as strong conservatives, but also implored, "Republicans must undertake bold efforts to define a forward-looking agenda that offers the kind of positive change voters are looking for." That is a tough assignment. To be a conservative and run on change when your party holds the White House is no easy feat.
Lewis will get another chance in November, and it is plausible that the normally strongly Republican district will revert to form. But with only 27% of voters nationally now identifying themselves to pollsters as Republicans and with Democrats having registered over 2 million new voters this year, the GOP looks to be in a perilous position. Unless something changes dramatically in the next few months, what we are seeing so far indicates they could be facing their worst drubbing since 1964.
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