Here's the promised "horse race" analysis 9 days before the election. The fallout from the three presidential and one vice presidential debates has had its effect and the race has stabilized into its final contours. In a nutshell, President Obama retains has the electoral college advantage and the inside track for re-election, but Mitt Romney remains close and still has a reasonable chance to win.
We start with the states where one candidate has a big and likely insurmountable lead. For Obama that's 18 states and the District of Columbia for 237 electoral votes (EVs). Romney has 23 states worth 191 EVs securely in his column. That leaves 9 states worth 110 EVs still up for grabs. With 538 total EVs at stake, it takes 270 to win the White House. So Obama needs 33 of those still-to-be-won 110 EVs while Romney would need 79 of them. You can easily see that is a steeper hill for the challenger. So let's look more closely at those remaining nine states.
Three of the tossup states are leaning fairly strongly to one side. These are North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin. Recent polls give Romney a consistent 3.8% average margin in the race for North Carolina's 15 EVs. Obama has twin 2.3% leads in Wisconsin (10 EV) and Nevada (6), and observers rate the Obama turnout operations strong in those states as well. So let's put these three states in their respective columns. That brings Obama to 253 and Romney to 206.
That leaves us, barring major unforeseen news developments or surprising statewide election upsets, with 6 states totalling 79 EVs that will decide the next president. Obama needs 17 EVs out of this group and Romney needs 64. From most to least EVs they are:
Florida, 29 EV. Romney has to have Florida. If Obama wins the Sunshine State it's game over. Recent polls give Romney an average of a 1.8% edge. It was nip and tuck until the first debate, after which Romney took the small lead he still holds. The subsequent debates stalled Romney's surge, but Obama has not been able to reverse it. It's still close but Florida is a big state, and the bigger they are the harder they are to turn around. Romney has a pretty strong chance to win here, probably over 60%.
Ohio, 18 EV. Romney has to have Ohio, too. But it doesn't look good for him. Obama holds a 1.9% average lead in the state both campaigns are visiting the most and spending more money in than any other. The Buckeye State is Obama's firewall. As long as he stays ahead here he is assured of victory. That's why both sides will spare no expense or effort in Ohio in the last nine days. Watch this call closely on Election Night, because it may tell the story early.
Virginia, 13 EV. Obama had a narrow lead until the first debate, when Romney went ahead. Since then it has been moving back Obama's way. The average of recent polls shows Virginia as a dead even tie, though two of three recent polls give Obama the edge. Expect this one to linger a long time before the networks call it on Election Night. It's the Washington, D.C. suburbs in the Northern part of Virginia for the President against the more conservative Southern part of the Old Dominion for the GOP. If Obama loses Ohio this is his next best line of defense. If Romney takes Florida and Ohio, a win here starts to make his chances for the presidency look good.
Colorado, 9 EV. Like Virginia, the latest polling average finds Colorado as a dead heat. Also like Virginia, it's a state where Obama had a pre-debate advantage, Romney reversed that, and now it's back to even. The most recent surveys are going Obama's way.
Iowa, 6 EV. Obama is up 2.3% in recent poll averages, and the latest surveys continue to show a narrow Obama lead.
New Hampshire, 4 EV. The average has Obama in the lead by only 1.4% in a small state, so that's not many people. The latest polls are on both sides, too, some showing Romney ahead and others Obama. This one could really go either way.
To sum up, Obama wins if he takes Florida or Ohio. He can also win by prevailing in Virginia and any one of the smaller states of Colorado, Iowa or Hew Hampshire. If Romney were to take Florida, Ohio and Virginia, Obama would have to win all three of the smaller states to hold his job. To sum it all up statistically, as it currently stands Obama has better than a 70% likelihood of winning the election, and Romney a little less than 30%.
For a look at some good sources, go to the FiveThirtyEight or Real Clear Politics web sites.
Showing posts with label Romney Mitt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Romney Mitt. Show all posts
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
The End Game Begins
President Obama emerged as the clear winner in the third debate last night. A synopsis of polls taken after the foreign policy discussion found the president besting the challenger by as much as a margin of 30 points, 53% to 23%. Obama was very much the seasoned commander in chief while Romney was strangely passive, agreeing with the President on the substance of important policies time and again. Though strong performances in the second and third debates appear to have blunted the momentum Mitt Romney gained after the first debate, there is little evidence this latest face-off changed many votes.
The Obama camp was apparently thinking along the same lines as my Saturday blog, "What Obama Needs to Do," for as both men opened tours of battleground states, Obama unveiled his own 5-point economic plan on the campaign trail today. Titled "A Plan for Jobs & Middle Class Security" the "glossy new 20-page magazine" lays out a directly competing blueprint to Romney's. The five points are education and training, manufacturing, energy, the deficit and "ending the war in Afghanistan to do some nation building here at home." Click on the last link to examine the program in detail or see the President's latest 60-second ad introducing the initiative.
The economic plan contains focused versions of proposals Obama has already been advocating for some time. What is novel (and more effective) is putting them together in a concise and pithy way in the manner Romney has done with his own plan. Having this ready and printed with ads already recorded clearly shows the campaign had been planning this roll out to coincide with the end of the debates. The timing for this to come out now, at this late date just two weeks before the election, can only be seen as intentional and carefully considered. This was unquestionably the right thing to do.
I'll get back to you with a "horse race" analysis piece at the end of the week once new tracking polls have digested the impact of the debate, the Obama economic roll out and the beginning of the two sides' closing appeals.
The Obama camp was apparently thinking along the same lines as my Saturday blog, "What Obama Needs to Do," for as both men opened tours of battleground states, Obama unveiled his own 5-point economic plan on the campaign trail today. Titled "A Plan for Jobs & Middle Class Security" the "glossy new 20-page magazine" lays out a directly competing blueprint to Romney's. The five points are education and training, manufacturing, energy, the deficit and "ending the war in Afghanistan to do some nation building here at home." Click on the last link to examine the program in detail or see the President's latest 60-second ad introducing the initiative.
The economic plan contains focused versions of proposals Obama has already been advocating for some time. What is novel (and more effective) is putting them together in a concise and pithy way in the manner Romney has done with his own plan. Having this ready and printed with ads already recorded clearly shows the campaign had been planning this roll out to coincide with the end of the debates. The timing for this to come out now, at this late date just two weeks before the election, can only be seen as intentional and carefully considered. This was unquestionably the right thing to do.
I'll get back to you with a "horse race" analysis piece at the end of the week once new tracking polls have digested the impact of the debate, the Obama economic roll out and the beginning of the two sides' closing appeals.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
What Obama Needs to Do
We now head into the home stretch of the election campaign. The last of three debates will be Monday and election day follows fifteen days later. The election promises to be close, and could go either way. At this late juncture, what can the Obama campaign do to regain its earlier edge, or at least enough of an edge to win?
The first debate legitimized the Romney candidacy. His campaign was flagging and slowly falling farther behind. The Obama strategy had been to make him unacceptable, and the strategy was working. But then a weak debate performance by the President derailed that strategy. Romney became an acceptable alternative to many people who hadn't thought so before.
The second debate seems to have arrested Romney's momentum. Obama was prepared, back on his game, and in command. Analyst Nate Silver, whose FiveThirtyEight site has an unblemished track record at this sort of thing, currently pegs Obama with an electoral lead of 289 to 249 and a 68% probability of winning the election. Yet that margin is razor-thin. A turnaround in closely-contested Ohio and any other single state Obama leads in and Romney would win.
Monday's debate will be on foreign policy. In order to do well, Obama will need to offer a cogent explanation and defense of the Administration's handling of events in Libya, Syria and Iran, where Romney will surely be on the attack. China policy will come up too, and will offer an opportunity for both candidates to give their pitches on the economy, which is what the American people most want to hear about. And it is here, I believe, that Obama must change his strategy to make headway toward securing victory in this election.
It is valid to point out that Romney's economic plans are "sketchy" and "don't add up," as the President frequently says. They are a combination of talking points and vagaries, justified by laughable inconsistencies in basic arithmetic. But the likelihood that one candidate is trying to sell snake oil in and of itself may not beat him if the other candidate has nothing to replace it with. Obama's pitch is mostly that Romney's plan is no good. As for himself, Obama points to the mess he inherited, then talks about the Detroit bailout, green jobs, and that indicators such as unemployment, and that home starts, prices and foreclosures have been trending better of late. What he lacks is a memorable vision of what he will do if elected to a second term. Romney can recite his Five Point Plan. It may mostly be smoke and mirrors but at least it is a plan. In my view, the President needs one of his own if he is to make his re-election more than a fifty-fifty proposition. Just today Paul Ryan said of Obama, "He's not even telling you what he plans on doing."
A winning plan ought to touch on manufacturing, preserving Social Security and Medicare, energy, infrastructure, education and comprehensive fiscal reform, i.e. something like Simpson-Bowles to attack the deficit problem. Obama does have ideas and initiatives on all of these, but really needs to encapsulate them in an easy-to-remember six point plan. You can't fight something with nothing, and without his own economic plan firmly fixed in the voters' minds a lot of people will opt for the guy with a sketchy plan over the guy seemingly without one. The third debate will provide an audience of at least 50 million people, the largest viewership left for either campaign to make its last best appeal. We'll see if the President and his team are on top of this one. They need to be, and it's getting very late in the game.
The first debate legitimized the Romney candidacy. His campaign was flagging and slowly falling farther behind. The Obama strategy had been to make him unacceptable, and the strategy was working. But then a weak debate performance by the President derailed that strategy. Romney became an acceptable alternative to many people who hadn't thought so before.
The second debate seems to have arrested Romney's momentum. Obama was prepared, back on his game, and in command. Analyst Nate Silver, whose FiveThirtyEight site has an unblemished track record at this sort of thing, currently pegs Obama with an electoral lead of 289 to 249 and a 68% probability of winning the election. Yet that margin is razor-thin. A turnaround in closely-contested Ohio and any other single state Obama leads in and Romney would win.
Monday's debate will be on foreign policy. In order to do well, Obama will need to offer a cogent explanation and defense of the Administration's handling of events in Libya, Syria and Iran, where Romney will surely be on the attack. China policy will come up too, and will offer an opportunity for both candidates to give their pitches on the economy, which is what the American people most want to hear about. And it is here, I believe, that Obama must change his strategy to make headway toward securing victory in this election.
It is valid to point out that Romney's economic plans are "sketchy" and "don't add up," as the President frequently says. They are a combination of talking points and vagaries, justified by laughable inconsistencies in basic arithmetic. But the likelihood that one candidate is trying to sell snake oil in and of itself may not beat him if the other candidate has nothing to replace it with. Obama's pitch is mostly that Romney's plan is no good. As for himself, Obama points to the mess he inherited, then talks about the Detroit bailout, green jobs, and that indicators such as unemployment, and that home starts, prices and foreclosures have been trending better of late. What he lacks is a memorable vision of what he will do if elected to a second term. Romney can recite his Five Point Plan. It may mostly be smoke and mirrors but at least it is a plan. In my view, the President needs one of his own if he is to make his re-election more than a fifty-fifty proposition. Just today Paul Ryan said of Obama, "He's not even telling you what he plans on doing."
A winning plan ought to touch on manufacturing, preserving Social Security and Medicare, energy, infrastructure, education and comprehensive fiscal reform, i.e. something like Simpson-Bowles to attack the deficit problem. Obama does have ideas and initiatives on all of these, but really needs to encapsulate them in an easy-to-remember six point plan. You can't fight something with nothing, and without his own economic plan firmly fixed in the voters' minds a lot of people will opt for the guy with a sketchy plan over the guy seemingly without one. The third debate will provide an audience of at least 50 million people, the largest viewership left for either campaign to make its last best appeal. We'll see if the President and his team are on top of this one. They need to be, and it's getting very late in the game.
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