U.S. Senate Outlook

The status of U.S. Senate races is a topic that's been left on the back burner of late, overshadowed by the debates and all the other minutiae of the presidential contest. That being said, the stakes in the Senate are quite high this year.

The Senate has the constitutional responsibility to vote on foreign treaties, and there could be any number of trade agreements reached. The Status of Forces Agreement in Iraq could possibly be brought before the next Congressional session. The Senate also confirms Presidential appointments, including members of the Supreme Court and the lower federal courts. A uniquely imortant role of the Senate is the ability of the minority party to "filibuster," or hold up legislation they don't like, as long as they can muster 40 votes.

Thirty-five of the 100 Senate seats are being contested this year. Twenty-three Republican and twelve Democratic seats are up for grabs. Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 edge in the Senate, if you count Independent Joe Lieberman who caucuses with the Democrats. (On issues other than Iraq Lieberman should be counted with the Democrats.)

At present the Democrats appear to be certain to gain a minimum of four seats and lead in four additional races. That could get them to 59. After that, there are four other contests for Republican-held seats where the Democratic challenger is close enough to possibly pull an upset. That gives them an outside chance of reaching the coveted total of 60. No incumbent Democrats appear to be in danger of failing to win re-election. You can see some data at Real Clear Politics or at ElectoralVote.Com.

The sure Democratic takeaways include Colorado with Mark Udall, New Mexico with cousin Tom Udall, Virginia with Mark Warner and New Hampshire with Jean Shaheen. The first three are running for seats where a Republican is retiring. Former Governor Shaheen leads incumbent John Sununu in New Hampshire by seven points.

Three other races where Democratic challengers lead are in states where Barack Obama is running strongly. In Oregon Jeff Merkely has an average 3.3% lead over incumbent Gordon Smith. In North Carolina Kay Hagan leads Elizabeth Dole by 3.4%. In Minnesota, Al Franken has a 2.2% lead over Norm Coleman. The fourth narrow Democratic lead is in Alaska, where Mark Begich leads Ted Stevens by 3.2%. Stevens is on trial for corruption at this writing. If he is acquitted his chances may improve dramatically. No doubt the Sarah Palin nomination has already helped him some.

If all these battles go the Democrats' way they would still need one more win to reach the coveted 60 plateau. The best prospects appear to be in Georgia (down 2.6%), Mississippi (-4.0%), Kentucky (-6.5%) and Texas (-7%). So the best probability is that the Republicans will be able to hold on to the filibuster weapon, one they have wielded with record frequency the past two years. But if the Democrats do get to 59 or 58 all they will need is to entice one or two Republicans to break ranks on controversial issues.

Democrats Likely to Gain 5-7 in Senate

Fresh off their gain of 6 Senate seats in the 2006 election to give them a majority of 51, Democrats appear poised to add another 5 to 7 this year. There is even an outside chance of their picking up the 9 seats they need to get to 60. 60 votes in the Senate would enable them to overcome Republican filibusters, a tactic the GOP has used a record number of times this session.

The overall anti-Republican mood of the country is causing problems for several Republicans. Making things harder for the GOP, 6 Republican incumbents are not running for re-election. Here's a rundown of the situation.

There are 12 Democratic-held Senate seats in play this year, and the incumbents are running in all of them. 11 of these seem to be very safe bets for re-election. The only close race is in Louisiana, where Mary Landrieu is facing a stiff challenge from John Kennedy (no relation to the Democratic Kennedys.) The loss of nearly 200,000 Democratic voters who left in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and never returned makes things tough for Landrieu. Even so, recent surveys show her leading Kennedy by about 48-42. The Democrats themselves were giving this seat up as lost earlier this year, but the continued bad economy is dragging down the Republican emblem. Expect Landrieu to prevail.

Thanks to a very successful 2002 election, the Republicans have 21 seats to defend this time around. 10 seats look quite safe, but 5 seem lost for sure, 2 are tossups and 4 others might also be vulnerable. The five that seem ripe for Democratic plucking are Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia.

In Alaska, longtime Republican Ted Stevens was indicted yesterday on corruption charges. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, his Democratic challenger, was already up by as many as 9 points in recent pollling, and Barack Obama is making a strong effort in the state that should boost turnout for Begich.

Colorado is a state that has been trending Democratic of late. Democrat Mark Udall leads Republican Bob Schaffer by 9 in a race where the Republican incumbent decided not to run. Colorado is another major Obama target, which should increase Udall's chances even more.

In New Hampshire, former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen has a 51-41 lead over incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu. Sununu's consistent support for the war in a state that doesn't like it is the principal cause of his problems.

Tom Udall, Mark's brother, has a 25-point polling lead over Republican Steve Pearce in New Mexico, a state where the Republican incumbent is retiring. New Mexico is trending Democratic with a large Hispanic vote, and is also a prime target for the Obama campaign. This one should be a real blowout.

Virginia is another state whose Republican incumbent is retiring. In a duel of former governors, Mark Warner has a huge lead over Jim Gilmore, whose campaign has been a train wreck. Virginia is also seen as a crucial Presidential swing state, and the Obama campaign is going all out to win it. Democratic Governor Tim Kane is said to be on Obama's short list for Vice President. Warner should swamp Gilmore.

Oregon and Mississippi have races too close to call. In Oregon Jeff Merkley is challenging Republican incumbent Gordon Brown. Merkley looks to be gathering momentum in a strong antiwar state. Polls in June showed Brown with a 9-point lead, but recent late-July samplings have Merkley pulling ahead. I'd be surprised if Brown can reverse this tide in a fairly liberal state.

Roger Wicker is running neck and neck with Democrat Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi, of all places. Wicker was appointed to the seat when the former Republican incumbent retired in mid term. The average of July surveys have Wicker ahead only 46-45. A Democratic win here would be rather a surprise, though the large African-American vote in Mississippi could mean the difference. If it turns out in unusually high numbers, as it well might with Obama heading the ticket, it could be enough to carry Musgrove over the top.

Four other Republican seats show the GOP ahead but by less than comfortable margins. Idaho's Jim Risch leads Democrat Larry LaRocco 42-32 in a somewhat dated poll. That's a big undecided total of 26%. Risch is trying to hold onto the seat being vacated by the scandal-plagued Larry Craig.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is locked in a tough battle with Democratic opponent Bruce Lunsford, leading him only 49-43. McConnell's unwavering support for the entire Bush agenda is wearing thin in this economically distressed state. The need to commit resources to McConnell may leave other Republicans in tough straits versus a Democratic Senate effort that has a 3-2 money advantage this year.

In Maine, incumbent Republican Susan Collins leads Tom Allen 49-42 and in Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman is ahead of Democrat Al Franken 48-41. These are both states that are expected to go heavily for Obama in November, so 7-point leads cannot be viewed complacently by the incumbents.

It is still too early to know for sure, but the handicapping at this stage would give the Democrats a net pickup of 7 seats and a resulting Senate split of 58-42 in their favor. That's my best estimate for now; I'll be sure to revisit this for you in weeks ahead.