Why Democrats Lost, and How They Could Have Won

As promised last time, here is my post-election wrap-up.  Republicans won a solid victory in Tuesday's midterm election, adding 9 senators, 12 representatives and 3 governorships to their roster.  But in my view, the bigger story was not that Republicans won, but that Democrats lost, and why they lost.  Democrats lost because they never gave the American public a coherent reason to vote for them.  Consequently, they failed to arouse their own base and to persuade moderates and independents to support them.   

Everyone who follows the political scene knows Democrats have a hard time winning the "midterm" elections, the ones that come two years after the last presidential election and two years before the next one.  The 2014 cycle was particularly difficult because of the 6-year cycle of Senate races.  This year's crop included a lot of Democrats elected in normally Republican states in the 2008 Obama wave election, states that were going to be difficult to defend.  In addition, there is historical precedent: the president's party almost always loses seats in an administration's 6th year in office.  It even happened to liberal icon Franklin Roosevelt and conservative maven Ronald Reagan.

But that is no excuse.  The nation knew exactly where the Republicans stood, and their message was universally communicated by all their candidates across the nation: The nation is in sorry shape,  Democrats, especially President Obama, are to blame, and Republicans have a plan to make things better.  The plan is tax cuts, spending cuts, deregulation, and repeal Obamacare.  No matter who the  "out" party is, the first part of their campaign message practically writes itself.  The "ins" have messed things up and the "outs" have a plan to fix them.

What was the Democrats' message?  Does anybody know?  That's why they lost.  The "in" party's strategy has to be to defend their record.  Otherwise their base doesn't turn out to preserve what they see as the party's accomplishments, and the undecideds see no reason to vote for them.  The opposition defines your record if you don't do it yourself.  The Democrats didn't use President Obama much because his poll numbers have been down of late.  They didn't talk about health care because its numbers are upside down as well, though people like its component parts.  They didn't talk about much that might offend people.  People read that as a party that doesn't have confidence in its own president and its own principles.  If the Kentucky candidate for U.S. Senator herself won't enthusiastically say, "Yes, I voted for the leader of my party and I was proud to do so!" then why should anyone else want to vote for that party?  The figures tell the story: In 2012 20 percent of the electorate was 18 to 29 years old and 25 percent was over 65.  The result was a resounding Democratic win.  In 2014 only 12 percent of the electorate was under 30, and 40 percent was 65 or older.  Wow.  No wonder the Republicans did so well.

If I'd been running the Democratic campaign it would have focused like a laser on the economy.  Every ad, every speech, every surrogate would have delivered a litany like this: The screen begins with the word THE ECONOMY in bold letters.  We see shots of people in unemployment lines, houses with "Foreclosed" signs in the front yard, and scenes of panic on Wall Street.  The spokesperson begins, "When Democrats took office from the last Republican administration America was losing 800,000 jobs a month.  The unemployment rate was 10%.  The Dow Jones Stock Average had fallen to 6,500 and the American auto industry was on the verge of bankruptcy.  In 2012, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney promised that if elected he would get the unemployment rate under 6% by 2016.  Well, under Democratic leadership, the economy has created 10 million jobs, including 52 consecutive months of job growth--that's a record in the entire history of the United States--the Dow Jones Stock Average is at 17,500, the American auto industry is making record profits, and it's only 2014 but the unemployment rate is already under 6%.  We're Democrats, and we're not running from our record, we're running ON it!"  A representative group of about 30 happy Americans of a wide variety of ages and ethnicities comes on and says in unison, "We're proud to be Democrats!  The Democratic National Committee approved this message!"  In this second segment we have been watching scenes of people moving into new homes, workers busy, dynamic bustle on Wall Street, and children playing happily.  The spot ends with bold letters announcing: DEMOCRATS: JOBS, PROSPERITY, FREEDOM (fade to black.)

I would have prepared a similar spot defending the Democratic record on health care, another on women's, gay and minority rights, and a third on defense and security.  I would have used the economic message the most, but they would all have played nationally, and often.       

You can't beat something with nothing.  If you want to win elections as the "in" party you have to control the message and make it about defending your record, a record of accomplishment.  You have to be proud of that record and hammer it home.  If you won't do that, not only will you fail to win, you won't even deserve to.      

Primary Election Picks

Tomorrow is the California Primary Election.  Like many people these days I've already filled by VBM (vote by mail) ballot out and sent it in weeks ago.  If you have yours or still go to the polls, please remember to vote!  If you have a VBM you haven't mailed yet, you can turn it in at the Registrar's office in the County Government Building on the west side of Mooney across from Mooney Grove Park, or at any polling place Tuesday.  You can find polling places and all the election information at their site, http://tularecounty.ca.gov/registrarofvoters/.uilera


As usual, I voted the entire endorsed Democratic slate.  There are some offices without an official endorsement, however, and I will give you my preferences for those.  With our still-new "Top Two" primary, the hopefuls of all parties and independents square off in the primary.  Only the top two vote-getters will appear on the general election ballot in November.

First, the officially-endorsed candidates. (I) means "incumbent."  Democrats hold all statewide offices in California.
Governor: Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown (I)
Lt. Governor: Gavin Newsom (I)
Treasurer: John Chiang
Attorney General: Kamala Harris (I)
Insurance Commissioner: Dave Jones (I)
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Tom Torlakson (I)
Board of Equalization, District 2: Chris Parker
U.S. Representative, 22nd District: Suzanna "Sam" Aguilera-Marrero

Propositions:
41 Veterans Housing and Homeless Prevention: Yes
42 Open Government Records, Public Right to Know: Yes

Now, statewide offices with no Democratic endorsement:
Secretary of State: Alex Padilla.  His opponent Leland Yee is embroiled in a corruption scandal.
Controller: Betty Yee (unrelated to Leland). She is better qualified, with a Master's Degree in Public Administration and experience as Deputy Budget Director, than former Assembly Speaker John Perez.

Legislative District Offices:
State Senate, 16th District: Republican Jean Fuller is running unopposed.  I did not vote for this office.
U.S. Representative, 21st District: Amanda Renteria.  She's a highly qualified candidate with a good chance to win.  This is the district to our immediate west.
State Assembly, 26th District: I voted for Carlton Jones.  Ruben Macareno, the Tulare County Party Chairman, is a good man and would be fine, too.  I voted for Carlton though, because as a sitting Tulare City Councilman he has shown he can win an election, and what Democrats need more than anything else in this area is someone who can win.

County Offices: In both these races we have situations in which incumbents stepped down and the Board of Supervisors filled the vacancies, creating appointed incumbents.  This is a favored tactic of insiders to keep their friends and handpicked successors in power after them.  Therefore, I don't like it.  Though I have met both candidates in each race and they are all qualified and can do the job, I voted for the candidate in each contest who was not the appointed incumbent.  These are not "top-two" races, and whoever gets the most votes tomorrow will win.
Sheriff: Dave Whaley. 
District Attorney: Ralph Kaelble.    




  

National Appeal Can Help Hold the Senate

What do Democrats need to do to hold on to their majority in the U.S. Senate this year?  Much of the national political speculation for 2014 centers on whether Republicans will be able to gain a majority.  The present membership includes 53 Democrats and 2 independents who caucus with them, versus 45 Republicans.  The Reps therefore need a pickup of 6 seats to swing the upper chamber (a 50-50 split favors the Dems, since Vice President Joe Biden can cast a deciding vote in case of ties.)  The map below shows the national field this year.

Here's what the map means: Dark red are Republicans running for re-election.  Pink are Republican-held seats in which the incumbent is retiring.  Dark blue are Democratic senators running for re-election, and light blue are Democratic seats in which the incumbent is retiring.  Of the 36 seats up for election this year, 21 are held by Democrats and 15 by Republicans. The bottom line is that the Democrats are vulnerable since they have more seats at risk than the Republicans, and because quite a few of these are in conservative states.  I'll get into some state-by-state analysis on this in a later post, but right now I want to suggest a framework for a national appeal.

That appeal would focus on highlighting the difference between what the Democrats and Republicans have been standing on and voting for in the past few years.  A vague sense of impatience with the pace of economic recovery and a sharper frustration with gridlock in Washington is working against the Democrats as the incumbent party.  But an effective appeal would highlight the idea that Democrats have been promoting policies the people actually want, and that Republican obstruction is  the reason they aren't getting passed.  An appeal to the voters ought to go something like this:

Republicans oppose raising the minimum wage.  They think $14,500 a year for full time work, an income that qualifies you for food stamps, is too much.  Do you agree?  Really?  Republicans have voted to repeal health care 50 times.  You're going to vote to take health care away from 15 million people who now have it?  Really?  They even shut down the entire government over it.  Do you feel that was a pretty smart move?  The Republican budget passed in the House caps Medicare and turns it into a voucher program.  Is that something you would like to see in place when you retire?  Republicans have voted against every bill to require equal pay for a woman doing the same job with the same performance review as a man.  You're going to vote for that?  Really?  Republicans still stand opposed to marriage equality for gays and lesbians.  They've been fighting it for years.  Are you going to vote against that?  Now?  Really?  Republicans won't even bring the immigration reform that's passed the Senate up for a vote in the House.  Are you for keeping 11 million people in legal limbo in our country, for denying U.S. veterans a path to citizenship, for keeping our agriculture from procuring legal labor, and for making it difficult for America to retain the foreign students who earn advanced degrees at our universities?  And Republicans blocked sensible legislation to require background checks to make sure felons, terrorists and the violently mentally ill can't walk into a gun show and buy an assault rifle.  After all the mayhem and mass shootings in our country over the past few years, do you think that's in the best interest of the safety of the American people?  Do you really?

This isn't theoretical.  It's not just rhetoric.  These are all demonstrated positions the Republicans have not only advocated, but actually voted for.  Is this the America you want to live in?  Really?