Ukraine War, One Month In

My responses to those who feel a successful Ukrainian resistance is impossible. The objections of the doom sayers are in quotes. Long live freedom, and long live Ukraine.

"We cannot help the Ukrainians." Here are some places to help the Ukrainians.

Four things you can do for Ukraine

Four things you can do for Ukraine Robert Reich Small but practical steps

"This boycott of Russian everything is...useless..." Rather than assuming the worst, just imagine for a moment that there is hope. If there is hope, then anything, large or small, that can be done to improve the situation will contribute to the potential for a better outcome. In that case, it is not useless to stop sending money that aggrandizes the resources of the tyrannical aggressor, but an obvious thing to do. Is the aggressor stronger with more money and weaker with less? There is an obvious answer to that question. Then we try not to contribute to his resources. 

Does this aggressor or any aggressor calculate the costs and benefits of prospective aggressions? If so, then the prospect of weakening economic retaliations for aggression will factor into the calculus and act as a deterrent. 

Economic pain, especially during and as a result of war in which there are battlefield reversals, can energize a society and contribute to the organization of plots and coups, or even successful popular insurrections. Just ask the Romanovs, the Bourbons, or the Mussolinis. 

"they will soon (probably in the same time it took Hitler to take Poland) take Ukraine. Period."

Tomorrow, March 24, will mark the end of four weeks of war. That was the same time period after which Warsaw surrendered and organized Polish resistance ended. The Ukrainians are nowhere near surrender or collapse, so that prediction is already wrong. 

"The Russians are bombing the utter shit out of them..they will resist with our weapons that we gingerly push into the arena on long sticks to keep our hands from the fires they are burning alive in."

Yes, because they want to. It seems they would rather be free than alive, if that's the choice. That's how our own country was born. And sometimes the unexpected happens. Few thought the Americans could win their independence against the foremost world empire of the time. Few thought Britain could resist Hitler and Mussolini once France had fallen and Stalin was still on Hitler's side. Few expected the nascent Israelis could withstand the invasion of seven Arab nations, outnumbered 10-1. Few would have bet on North Vietnam and the Viet Cong to outlast South Vietnam and the United States in that war. Truman won the 1948 election. The Mets won the 1969 World Series. Usually the expected happens. But often enough, the underdog prevails, often enough to fire the dedication of freedom-loving people everywhere. 

Russia under Putin is not a happy, prosperous, and well-adjusted society or polity. Maybe, with enough losses, enough time, enough increasing economic privation, enough military and national humiliation, the oligarchs, the army, and/or the people will rise up there as they have four times in the past 117 years and rid themselves of an overweening despotism.

 

Of course maybe not, in this instance. But we don't know, and nobody knows. The only things that will absolutely insure Ukrainian defeat are if they themselves lose their will to fight or if no one gives them the weapons they need to give them a chance. They show no signs of losing their will to fight as of today. And the democratic world still stands united in giving them the tools they need to fight because it is the right thing to do. Do we stand up for our beliefs or do we abandon them when the going gets hard? Do we tell tyrants and thugs fine, go ahead, you can act with impunity or do we show them their depredations will cost them more than they can afford to pay? Do we help people fighting for their freedom or do we tell them we think they are better off slaves?

I deeply admire the Ukrainians and am proud that the US and so many other countries are supporting them however they can, be the support military, humanitarian, monetary, political, demonstrating in the streets to show support for their government's efforts on Ukraine's behalf, or sanctioning and boycotting Russian sources of income. Long live freedom, and long live Ukraine.

 

Prospect for Ukraine

I write this on Day 5 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainians are inspiring the world with their much stronger than expected resistance to the Russian onslaught. It is absolutely certain that Putin will not countenance defeat or withdrawal. He's put his chips in and can never be seen to back down. I foresee continuing stiffening Ukrainian resistance as more of our wondrous precision weaponry reaches them, leading to heavier and heavier Russian losses such as the burning columns of T-72s and APCs we have already seen on video. This will multiply Putin's rage and the Russian Army's humiliation such that their campaign will become ever more brutal. 

We've already seen this model before with Putin in Chechnya and Syria. Cities that successfully resist will be heavily struck, then as frustration grows, leveled. Expect Kharkiv and Kiev to be turned fairly soon into piles of rubble. As the Germans discovered at Stalingrad, however, bombed out urban landscapes are extremely perilous places for offensive operations, with roads blocked and innumerable places for defenders to hide and ambush. Russian losses will swell. Still, their preponderance is great, and they will grind forward, and at length, conquer the whole of a devastated Ukraine. 

From what I've seen thus far, that will not be the end of the war. Ukrainian spirit is strong. The Russian occupiers will become bogged down in a widespread and effective insurgency. The resistance will be very well-supplied. Even neutral Sweden has pledged to send lethal weaponry. Think of that. Russian losses will be quite heavy on an ongoing basis. A steady stream of hundreds and thousands of body bags will be brought home for funerals attended by grieving relatives and friends. All the while, sanctions will be sapping the Russian economy. Videos will show dead children. Its pariah status will grow. Boycotts will dry up its exports. The ruble is already crashing. The cost of occupying the ruined Ukraine and fighting the insurgency will not be offset by the seizure of the Ukrainian economy, since much of it will be in ruins. 

The Russian economy, about 8% the size of America's, will crack under the strain. As privation and war weariness grow, anti-Putin demonstrations in Russia will become larger and increasingly more defiant. I wouldn't be surprised to see the denouement to this classic Shakespearean tragedy end with footage of Putin's blood-spattered carcass sprawled across the marbled floor of one of the Kremlin's ornately appointed halls, the victim of a coup engineered by an alliance of disaffected oligarchs and the top army brass, the former's fortunes and the latter's pride having been drastically depleted by Putin's grand overreach. 

Trip to Austria

It's been nearly three weeks since my last post. The reason is my wife and I have been on vacation in Austria. Austria is the low key and Alpine part of the German-speaking world, most definitely not to be confused with Australia, as we were told some Americans are embarrasingly wont to do. Locals told us some have been known to ask, "When will we see some kangaroos," when a more appropriate question might be, "When will we hear some yodeling?"


At any rate, I'll pass along some ruminations gathered along the way as we toured fabulous palaces, churches and public buildings from Austria's glory days as seat of the Holy Roman and then Austro-Hungarian empires, heard magnificent concerts from its musical virtuosos such as Haydn and Mozart, went on the "Sound of Music" Tour around Salzburg and to Hitler's mountain "Eagle's Nest" just across the border, sailed the Danube, ate schnitzel, strudel and other wunderbar desserts and hiked to mountaintop glaciers and ice caves. Some things they do better than we do and we ought to emulate them. In other things we have the better way.


The first remarkable item is their outstanding public transportation system. We never needed to rent a car, and hired taxis only twice, to get us from the train station to our hotel in Salzburg and to take us to the Vienna airport at 4:00 A.M. on our way out. For 5.70 Euros, about $8, you can buy a daily ticket allowing you to hop on any bus, subway, tram or train in Vienna for 24 hours. For $40 you can ride the train from one end of the country to the other. For sure, their country is a lot smaller than ours, but it's still economical and efficient. You even get private compartments for about six people on the inter-city trains.


Practically everyone speaks some English. We learned it was taught in school beginning at age 10. We noticed the people in the hospitality industry all spoke English and were well trained. Unlike here, where working at a small hotel desk or serving at a restaurant is often considered a rather lowly or temporary job for people who are looking for something better, they actually train and prepare for such positions at college and treat the position as a real profession.


They are very green. Big wind turbines are common in the farmlands, generating electricity. The rail system is almost all electric. They recycle. Most cars are about two-thirds the size of the cars here. Despite the many centuries of civilization there is still a lot of wooded land left. They keep their logging and fishing sustainable. Cities are densely populated, so there is less suburban sprawl around them. This leaves more land available for agriculture.

Things are usually designed in a people friendly way. There are pedestrian only areas of cities. They foster the cafe culture ambiance Europe is famous for. Consequently very little urban territory has to be given over to parking lots. In Vienna, traffic congestion is remarkably low for a city of 1.2 million. They're mostly on the subway or busses, and many ride bicycles. More common things have an aesthetic component to them, rather than being merely functional.

People were very happy about the change in American political leadership. From conversations on trains and the two days I wore my "Obama '08" shirt, people frequently brought up Obama and said he was not only good for America but for the world. Time and again they likened him to John Kennedy. It was positive to see the country's image improving.

There were some negatives, too. Amazingly, a very high percentage of Austrians still smoke. It's not allowed on the transit system, but can be annoying in the cafe or restaurant. They don't apparently have anything like our concern for providing access for the handicapped. Thus, long flights of stairs are still the norm for getting into many buildings. The elevators they do have are usually too small and too slow. Graffiti has arrived, though I never saw any on churches, monuments, or private residences. Finally, and this can be either good or bad, a lot of places accept payment only in cash. If you go to countries off the main tourist beat be prepared to encounter this.

Box Score from Europe

By all accounts, Barack and Michelle Obama are making quite a splash as they wend their way across Europe. Rapturous crowds shriek excitedly at every glimpse of the American visitors. The leaders of Britain, France and Germany have seized every opportunity to be seen with the Obamas and to conduct joint press conferences with the U.S. President in which they praise his views and leadership qualities. In terms of American image and repairing the general tenor of U.S./European relations it is hard to imagine a better trip. Barack Obama is not George W. Bush. Our allies and their publics are ecstatic.

But what about the substantive results of the conferences so far? The G-20 economic summit and the NATO meeting had serious business on their agendas. Accomplishments here are quite a bit more modest, but important none the less.

At the G-20 Obama reportedly resolved a dispute between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Chinese Premier Hu Jintao by direct personal diplomacy. Source. Of the four main topics of the summit: cooperation, anti-protectionism, financial regulation and closing tax havens, Obama's views fared well enough for such a gathering. Cooperation included a $1.1 trillion collective pledge of assistance for the third world that was adopted. Keep in mind that a good part of the rationale for this is to allow the developing nations to continue to buy G-20 exports and you can appreciate its acceptance. Obama's other aim, to encourage the other governments to engage in strong stimulus efforts in their own countries, met with mixed results. The British government of Gordon Brown enthusiastically agreed. The Germans under Angela Merkl feel their safety net is already strong. The French government of Sarkozy says it has done its stimulating and doesn't need to do it again. Today Obama said that no one should, "believe the notion that, somehow, the United States was trying to dictate the budgets of other countries."

On the regulatory matters, all agreed that "complex financial instruments" such as credit default swaps, derivatives and hedge funds must now be brought under strict regulatory oversight. There was also surprising accord on the need to crack down on "tax haven" dodges such as Cayman Islands incorporation and secret Swiss bank accounts. The nitty gritty of getting these things done is far too arcane for quick settlement among many nations at a summit table and will be left to specialists to devise later. While this is unavoidable for practical reasons, it remains to be seen how effective or coordinated the international effort will subsequently be. Some observers are skeptical.

On the NATO front, the Allies agreed to send 3,000 additional combat troops to Afghanistan and a few hundred trainers for the Afghan Army and police. While this is a small augmentation and no doubt less than Obama hoped, he will gladly take whatever he can get. Most European publics are not supportive of combat involvement there and to get any leaders to support the U.S. President with anything militarily at this point is a successful outcome for him and certainly more than his predecessor had been able to secure.

All in all, the overall box score must be judged quite successful so far from the American point of view. Both as a campaign event to return the American image to favorability and influence foreign governments through public pressure on their leaders, and substantively in terms of U.S. positions adopted at the forums, the trip has done very well.

The Obamas are next on their way to the Czech Republic before concluding the journey with a visit to Turkey. It will be informative to see how things are received on the edge of Eastern Europe and in the most Westernized part of the Muslim world.