Two days out from the Iowa Caucuses there are two main questions to be settled on the Republican side: First, can anybody stop Donald Trump, and second, who will emerge as the "establishment" challenger? The answer to the first is probably not. The answer to the second is likely Marco Rubio. The one thing to keep in mind is that Iowa's Republican caucusers have proven to be truly unpredictable. The political world was shocked when Mike Huckabee came in first in 2008 and Rick Santorum took Hawkeye State laurels in 2012. Both rode those to several state wins and respectable second place finishes in the nomination process. With that caveat out of the way, here's how things stand.
According to an average of state polls of likely GOP caucus goers there are only four candidates with significant support. Trump is at 31%, Ted Cruz 25, Rubio 15 and Ben Carson 9. Jeb Bush is next, but has only 4 percent. The trends are important. Trump stalled for quite awhile but has gained about 5 points the past two weeks. Cruz peaked about three weeks ago with a 4-point lead over Trump but has been edging downward since. Carson led at Halloween and slid enormously until stabilizing at his current level for the past few weeks. Rubio has surged 5 points in the past week.
So what does this portend? Cruz pretty badly could use a win here. It's a state well-suited to his demographics with a big Evangelical population. If Cruz doesn't get the momentum of a win here it's hard to see him winning anywhere anytime soon, maybe until Texas on Super Tuesday, March 1. But by then he may be on the severe downswing. No one is quite sure about Trump's turnout machine, so a Cruz win must be considered a possibility. Rubio wins if he finishes third, which it looks pretty strongly like he will. That positions him as the top establishment alternative to the unorthodox Trump and the anti-party Cruz. Carson hardly stays relevant after these caucuses. Expect to see his supporters continue to drift away. Many of them could go to Cruz, but Rubio's been making a play for Carson's religious-oriented backers of late.
One thing is almost certain: Iowa will produce a surprise; it always does. Either Cruz will beat Trump or one of the seeming also-rans (Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum) will do much better than anticipated and be given a new lease on political life for the time being.
Next week is the New Hampshire Primary. The Tuesday, February 9 vote is mixed, that is, people will be able to vote in either primary's party regardless of their registration. Among those saying they're likely to vote in the New Hampshire Republican contest it's currently no contest for first place, with Trump pulling in 31% in polling averages. He's followed by Kasich at 13, Cruz at 12 and Bush at 11. Rubio has 9 and Christie comes in at 7. That's why Kasich, Bush and Christie will hang in there no matter how badly they do in Iowa--they're all considerably more popular in the Northeast than the farm belt.
But after that the field should winnow considerably. Cruz is the only one within shouting distance of Trump in South Carolina and Nevada, where the campaign moves the next two weeks, and it looks to be between Rubio and Bush to see who will pick up the more moderate mantle by then. Currently South Carolina, February 20 is: Trump 36, Cruz 20, Rubio 13, Carson 9, Bush 10 with no one else above 2 percent. Nevada, on the 23rd, sees Trump at 33, trailed by Cruz with 20, Rubio at 11, and nobody else better than 6.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
Sunday, January 24, 2016
Two Book Appearances This Week
I'll be making book appearances on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, and you are invited!
Tuesday will be on the College of the Sequoias Visalia campus, at 915 S. Mooney Boulevard in the conference room Hospital Rock 133. Here's a link to a campus map. We'll start at 2:30 pm and go until 3:30. There should be students and faculty present for this one.
Wednesday will be at the monthly meeting of the Visalia Democratic Club. It meets at China Garden Restaurant, 1634 S. Mooney Blvd. The Club gathers in the banquet room, to your left after you enter the front door. Most people order dinner around 6:00 and the meeting gets under way around 6:45.
At both appearances I'll have a power point of highlights of my book, Liberally Speaking: Why Liberalism is Right for America. I'll intersperse a couple of readings and follow up with time for comments and questions. Anthropology Professor Marla Prochnow will moderate the discussion.
I'll certainly be preaching to the choir at the Visalia Democratic Club, highlighting the social, civil rights and economic contributions of liberal leaders and the liberal movement to the advancement of American life.
I'll have books available for purchase and signing at the end of each event.
Tuesday will be on the College of the Sequoias Visalia campus, at 915 S. Mooney Boulevard in the conference room Hospital Rock 133. Here's a link to a campus map. We'll start at 2:30 pm and go until 3:30. There should be students and faculty present for this one.
Wednesday will be at the monthly meeting of the Visalia Democratic Club. It meets at China Garden Restaurant, 1634 S. Mooney Blvd. The Club gathers in the banquet room, to your left after you enter the front door. Most people order dinner around 6:00 and the meeting gets under way around 6:45.
At both appearances I'll have a power point of highlights of my book, Liberally Speaking: Why Liberalism is Right for America. I'll intersperse a couple of readings and follow up with time for comments and questions. Anthropology Professor Marla Prochnow will moderate the discussion.
I'll certainly be preaching to the choir at the Visalia Democratic Club, highlighting the social, civil rights and economic contributions of liberal leaders and the liberal movement to the advancement of American life.
I'll have books available for purchase and signing at the end of each event.
Thursday, January 21, 2016
2015 Was Hottest Year On Record
Climate change is back in the news again. The final figures show 2015 was the hottest year on record. By a lot. NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have both announced it as official. It topped the previous record (2014) by .23 of a degree, almost 1/4 of a degree, when most of the other records have been by a hundredth or two. Here are the global facts in graphic form. It's interesting to note that 1988 set a "hottest" record at the time, and it's not even in the top 20 any more. The recent Paris climate accord shows the world's leaders get it. It's time for the deniers to give it up, and for reasonable people to ignore them. This debate is over.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Obama SOTU a Masterpiece
President Obama's last State of the Union Address (watch it here) focused primarily on three things: what's been accomplished so far, what will need doing for the future, and areas where the two parties might actually be able to work together to get some things done in the near term. Throughout, the President was able to display the winning personality, oratorical skills and compelling logic that won him two national elections.
Accomplishments included recovery from the worst economy since the Great Depression, the reform of health care, much improved health care for veterans, ending the Cold War with Cuba, forging a climate agreement with nearly 200 nations, getting Iran to stop its nuclear program, and securing "the freedom in every state to marry the person we love." There was much to praise about achievements in the economy. "People who say our economy is in decline are peddling fiction," he said. The U.S. economy is the strongest in the world, with 14 million jobs created during the longest job growth streak in history, autos having their best year ever, oil imports down by 60%, "gas under two bucks a gallon isn't too bad either," more Americans employed in solar now than coal, and 18 million people newly covered with health care. He pointed out that too much of the growth is going to the high earners, and that "regular people don't get bigger paychecks by letting corporations write all the rules."
Obama's look into the future featured four aspects: broadening opportunity and security, making the "tech revolution work for us rather than against us," "how to keep the world safe without being the world's policeman," and how to "make our politics reflect what's best in us, not the worst." The last of these had some clear digs at the type of bombastic and xenophobic demagoguery currently apparent in the Republican presidential campaign field. His words may have little effect with them, but at least he has the satisfaction of being right.
The President thanked Speaker Ryan (behind him, right in the picture above) for helping shepherd a compromise budget through the House, and saluted congress for education reform with the recent No Child Left Behind overhaul. He went on to outline areas where he felt the two parties ought to be able to take action in a bipartisan fashion soon. There is, for example, a growing consensus for a more rehabilitative criminal justice reform. Progress is imminent on help for prescription drug and heroin addiction. And Obama got his best reception when proposing a massive new "moon shot program to eradicate cancer," naming Vice President Joe Biden (back left in the photo above), who lost his son to cancer last year, to head the effort. This was greeting by thunderous roars from both sides of the aisle.
President Obama closed with the theme that brought the then-relatively unknown Illinois State Senator Barack Obama to national prominence in a speech to the 2004 Democratic National Convention that nominated John Kerry. "All this is within our reach. But it will only happen if we can work together...to fix our politics. Democracy requires basic trust among us, and grinds to a halt when we refuse to compromise...A lot of politicians are trapped by the rancor of their base--we must change the system!"
The President pointed to the need for nonpartisan redistricting, reducing the influence of money in the political process and making it easier to vote. He remarked that the only thing he really regrets about his time in office has been his inability to make much of a dent in overcoming the political polarization rampant in government. But he urged the American people to reject cynicism and insist their representatives reflect the people's desire to work together for the common good. His voice has been the right message at the right time in our national story. That it has not been much heard by the Republicans is disappointing, but has not dimmed its righteousness or the inevitability of its triumph in the end if America is to survive. As Dr. Martin Luther King reminded us, "We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools."
Accomplishments included recovery from the worst economy since the Great Depression, the reform of health care, much improved health care for veterans, ending the Cold War with Cuba, forging a climate agreement with nearly 200 nations, getting Iran to stop its nuclear program, and securing "the freedom in every state to marry the person we love." There was much to praise about achievements in the economy. "People who say our economy is in decline are peddling fiction," he said. The U.S. economy is the strongest in the world, with 14 million jobs created during the longest job growth streak in history, autos having their best year ever, oil imports down by 60%, "gas under two bucks a gallon isn't too bad either," more Americans employed in solar now than coal, and 18 million people newly covered with health care. He pointed out that too much of the growth is going to the high earners, and that "regular people don't get bigger paychecks by letting corporations write all the rules."
Obama's look into the future featured four aspects: broadening opportunity and security, making the "tech revolution work for us rather than against us," "how to keep the world safe without being the world's policeman," and how to "make our politics reflect what's best in us, not the worst." The last of these had some clear digs at the type of bombastic and xenophobic demagoguery currently apparent in the Republican presidential campaign field. His words may have little effect with them, but at least he has the satisfaction of being right.
The President thanked Speaker Ryan (behind him, right in the picture above) for helping shepherd a compromise budget through the House, and saluted congress for education reform with the recent No Child Left Behind overhaul. He went on to outline areas where he felt the two parties ought to be able to take action in a bipartisan fashion soon. There is, for example, a growing consensus for a more rehabilitative criminal justice reform. Progress is imminent on help for prescription drug and heroin addiction. And Obama got his best reception when proposing a massive new "moon shot program to eradicate cancer," naming Vice President Joe Biden (back left in the photo above), who lost his son to cancer last year, to head the effort. This was greeting by thunderous roars from both sides of the aisle.
President Obama closed with the theme that brought the then-relatively unknown Illinois State Senator Barack Obama to national prominence in a speech to the 2004 Democratic National Convention that nominated John Kerry. "All this is within our reach. But it will only happen if we can work together...to fix our politics. Democracy requires basic trust among us, and grinds to a halt when we refuse to compromise...A lot of politicians are trapped by the rancor of their base--we must change the system!"
The President pointed to the need for nonpartisan redistricting, reducing the influence of money in the political process and making it easier to vote. He remarked that the only thing he really regrets about his time in office has been his inability to make much of a dent in overcoming the political polarization rampant in government. But he urged the American people to reject cynicism and insist their representatives reflect the people's desire to work together for the common good. His voice has been the right message at the right time in our national story. That it has not been much heard by the Republicans is disappointing, but has not dimmed its righteousness or the inevitability of its triumph in the end if America is to survive. As Dr. Martin Luther King reminded us, "We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools."
Tuesday, January 5, 2016
Obama Does What He Can on Guns
I am often reminded how proud I am to have voted for President Barack Obama twice. He invariably pursues a course trying to serve the needs and interests of the American people as a whole. Today was again one of those days. This morning he addressed the nation to present common sense Executive actions he is taking to enforce the laws and stem the carnage visited upon America by gun violence, a plague that kills some 30,000 Americans every year. These actions fall under four steps.
The first is to tighten up the currently required background check system. Anyone selling firearms must get a license and conduct background checks. This will effectively close the "gun show loophole" problem. In order to facilitate this, the computer system will be upgraded and more workers will be assigned to do the checks. "Anyone selling firearms must get a license and conduct background checks or they will be indicted and prosecuted," the President said.
The second is also about beefing up enforcement. The President directs that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms hire and train 200 new agents. The new regulations will require and the additional agents will make possible the more rapid reporting of lost or stolen guns, and empower greater scrutiny and enforcement against offenders convicted of domestic violence.
Step three comprises more resources for mental health. It includes the redirection of $500 million into expanded access for mental health treatment. The Affordable Care Act already provides the framework for delivering these services, and most of the mass shooters of recent years have been seriously mentally disturbed. This directive also requires that such mental health records be reported to those doing the background checks and to state agencies as well.
The fourth area is about requiring safety technology in guns. 500 shooting deaths a year come from accidents, many involving children, and hundreds of murders are committed with stolen guns. The President observed that phones can be protected so the owner's fingerprint is needed for activation. Why not for guns? Through GPS we can locate an iPad wherever it is. Why not a gun? Aspirin tablets have childproof caps. Why not gun safeties or triggers? New regulations will be forthcoming on such specifics.
These are all eminently sensible safeguards, already permitted by law and supported by the vast majority of the American people. The President teared up when going over the list of school shootings, including the first graders at Newtown. "Every time I think about those kids it gets me mad," he explained. He wants more steps too, but frankly admitted they won't be enacted during his presidency by this Congress, and called on citizens to make their voices and votes known. Connecticut, for example, has seen a 40% reduction in gun deaths since enacting 100% mandatory background checks, and Missouri has seen its spike to 50% above the national average since getting rid of theirs.
He concluded, "The gun lobby may hold Congress hostage but they can't hold America hostage. Yes, they are well organized, but we need to be just as organized in defense of our kids. If they know it's going to be harder to win elections if they keep blocking these laws they'll stop blocking these laws, I promise you." CNN will host a Presidential Town Hall on gun issues Thursday at 5:00 P.M. PST.
The first is to tighten up the currently required background check system. Anyone selling firearms must get a license and conduct background checks. This will effectively close the "gun show loophole" problem. In order to facilitate this, the computer system will be upgraded and more workers will be assigned to do the checks. "Anyone selling firearms must get a license and conduct background checks or they will be indicted and prosecuted," the President said.
The second is also about beefing up enforcement. The President directs that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms hire and train 200 new agents. The new regulations will require and the additional agents will make possible the more rapid reporting of lost or stolen guns, and empower greater scrutiny and enforcement against offenders convicted of domestic violence.
Step three comprises more resources for mental health. It includes the redirection of $500 million into expanded access for mental health treatment. The Affordable Care Act already provides the framework for delivering these services, and most of the mass shooters of recent years have been seriously mentally disturbed. This directive also requires that such mental health records be reported to those doing the background checks and to state agencies as well.
The fourth area is about requiring safety technology in guns. 500 shooting deaths a year come from accidents, many involving children, and hundreds of murders are committed with stolen guns. The President observed that phones can be protected so the owner's fingerprint is needed for activation. Why not for guns? Through GPS we can locate an iPad wherever it is. Why not a gun? Aspirin tablets have childproof caps. Why not gun safeties or triggers? New regulations will be forthcoming on such specifics.
These are all eminently sensible safeguards, already permitted by law and supported by the vast majority of the American people. The President teared up when going over the list of school shootings, including the first graders at Newtown. "Every time I think about those kids it gets me mad," he explained. He wants more steps too, but frankly admitted they won't be enacted during his presidency by this Congress, and called on citizens to make their voices and votes known. Connecticut, for example, has seen a 40% reduction in gun deaths since enacting 100% mandatory background checks, and Missouri has seen its spike to 50% above the national average since getting rid of theirs.
He concluded, "The gun lobby may hold Congress hostage but they can't hold America hostage. Yes, they are well organized, but we need to be just as organized in defense of our kids. If they know it's going to be harder to win elections if they keep blocking these laws they'll stop blocking these laws, I promise you." CNN will host a Presidential Town Hall on gun issues Thursday at 5:00 P.M. PST.
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