Two days out from the Iowa Caucuses there are two main questions to be settled on the Republican side: First, can anybody stop Donald Trump, and second, who will emerge as the "establishment" challenger? The answer to the first is probably not. The answer to the second is likely Marco Rubio. The one thing to keep in mind is that Iowa's Republican caucusers have proven to be truly unpredictable. The political world was shocked when Mike Huckabee came in first in 2008 and Rick Santorum took Hawkeye State laurels in 2012. Both rode those to several state wins and respectable second place finishes in the nomination process. With that caveat out of the way, here's how things stand.
According to an average of state polls of likely GOP caucus goers there are only four candidates with significant support. Trump is at 31%, Ted Cruz 25, Rubio 15 and Ben Carson 9. Jeb Bush is next, but has only 4 percent. The trends are important. Trump stalled for quite awhile but has gained about 5 points the past two weeks. Cruz peaked about three weeks ago with a 4-point lead over Trump but has been edging downward since. Carson led at Halloween and slid enormously until stabilizing at his current level for the past few weeks. Rubio has surged 5 points in the past week.
So what does this portend? Cruz pretty badly could use a win here. It's a state well-suited to his demographics with a big Evangelical population. If Cruz doesn't get the momentum of a win here it's hard to see him winning anywhere anytime soon, maybe until Texas on Super Tuesday, March 1. But by then he may be on the severe downswing. No one is quite sure about Trump's turnout machine, so a Cruz win must be considered a possibility. Rubio wins if he finishes third, which it looks pretty strongly like he will. That positions him as the top establishment alternative to the unorthodox Trump and the anti-party Cruz. Carson hardly stays relevant after these caucuses. Expect to see his supporters continue to drift away. Many of them could go to Cruz, but Rubio's been making a play for Carson's religious-oriented backers of late.
One thing is almost certain: Iowa will produce a surprise; it always does. Either Cruz will beat Trump or one of the seeming also-rans (Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum) will do much better than anticipated and be given a new lease on political life for the time being.
Next week is the New Hampshire Primary. The Tuesday, February 9 vote is mixed, that is, people will be able to vote in either primary's party regardless of their registration. Among those saying they're likely to vote in the New Hampshire Republican contest it's currently no contest for first place, with Trump pulling in 31% in polling averages. He's followed by Kasich at 13, Cruz at 12 and Bush at 11. Rubio has 9 and Christie comes in at 7. That's why Kasich, Bush and Christie will hang in there no matter how badly they do in Iowa--they're all considerably more popular in the Northeast than the farm belt.
But after that the field should winnow considerably. Cruz is the only one within shouting distance of Trump in South Carolina and Nevada, where the campaign moves the next two weeks, and it looks to be between Rubio and Bush to see who will pick up the more moderate mantle by then. Currently South Carolina, February 20 is: Trump 36, Cruz 20, Rubio 13, Carson 9, Bush 10 with no one else above 2 percent. Nevada, on the 23rd, sees Trump at 33, trailed by Cruz with 20, Rubio at 11, and nobody else better than 6.
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