Ever since Obama's stunning victory in the Iowa caucuses back in January, Clinton had avoided his knockout punch. First in New Hampshire, then in Ohio and Texas, and finally in Pennsylvania, Clinton's support had held firm and kept her in a race that had clearly become an uphill struggle for her. While party leaders fretted about party unity, surveys consistently showed the party faithful wanted the contest to go on. The rank and file appear now to have joined the movers and shakers in the view that the race is settled and it's time to wrap it up.
Brave Gnu Whirled reader Jeff sent me the latest Gallup daily tracking poll. It shows Obama surging 12 points to a commanding 16-point lead over Clinton among Democrats nationally. From May 1 to May 13, Obama led 49% to 45%. The 3-day tracking poll conducted May 16 to 18 saw that margin grow to 55% to 39%.
All subgroups evidenced movement toward Obama. He increased his lead among men from 55-39 to 63-31. He caught up among whites, going from a 52-41 deficit to a 47-47 tie. For the first time, he gained the upper hand among Hispanics, going from a huge 56-39 deficit to a 51-44 lead. Even more ominous for Clinton, Obama has even taken the lead among women, going from down 50-44 to up 49-46. You can see all the data at http://www.gallup.com/poll/107407/Obama-Surge-Fairly-BroadBased.aspx#1
These findings are corroborated by the Real Clear Politics averages of national polls, which show Obama suddenly leading Clinton by 12.2%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/ The RCP averages showed a dead heat from May 1 through the 11th, with the race tied 7 days, Obama up by 2 one day and up by 1 the other three days. On May 12, the day before West Virginia, he jumped to a national 5-point lead. It stayed between 5 and 8 points for the next eight days, until May 19, the day before Oregon and Kentucky, when it jumped to 9. It went to 11 on the 20th and 12 on the 21st.
The RCP average is considered as good a bellweather as there is in polling, since it consists of an average of several polls and is thus thought to minimize the anomalies inherent in the results of any one poll. If they're all saying the same thing it gives added statistical weight to the findings by greatly increasing the sampling size. The only time it has been drastically off this year was just before New Hampshire.
If the next Gallup tracking poll and RCP average duplicates what these are saying, expect the talk urging Clinton to withdraw to get increasingly pointed and direct. Even more important, expect to see the superdelegates begin declaring for Obama in droves. Superdelegates are, after all, politicians. They are naturally skittish about taking chances that might antagonize a lot of voters, voters who seem to have wanted to see the battle to go on until May 12. But on that date they decided they had seen enough. Neither Clinton's West Virginia win nor the Oregon-Kentucky split changed their minds; indeed they appear to have hardened their resolve that the race is over, Obama is the nominee, and it's time get on with it.
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