Big Night for Obama

Barack Obama all but clinched the Democratic nomination for president today with a sweeping win in North Carolina and a narrow loss to Hillary Clinton in Indiana. His victory address in Raleigh, North Carolina had the feel of an acceptance speech. In it, he congratulated Clinton for a race well fought and sounded themes he will emphasize in his general election campaign: ending the war in Iraq, speaking truth to the American people, focusing on their economic needs and promising to change the way politics is practiced in Washington, D.C.

Clinton's speech to her supporters began with an appeal for funds. She claimed victory in Indiana and promised to carry on the campaign, but her congratulations to Obama were followed by a call that, "no matter what happens" her partisans need to rally around the Democratic nominee in the fall. She promised to work hard for Obama and campaign for him if he is that nominee.

In perhaps a telling development, Clinton cancelled her scheduled appearances on Wednesday's morning news shows. She will have a meeting with superdelegates instead. It looks as though she is setting May 7 aside for some reflection. No doubt she will be conferring with trusted advisers about whether to continue in the race. What the superdelegates tell her may influence her decision.

Obama deflated Clinton's rationale for election by exceeding expectations in the two contests. She and her surrogates had made the case that momentum was on her side, Obama was slipping and that he would therefore be the weaker general election candidate. This appeal was intended to cause the uncommitted superdelegates to break her way decisively, her only chance at the nomination given Obama's lead in pledged and already announced supers. The averages of polls released in the last days prior to the voting had Obama up by 8 points in North Carolina and Clinton ahead by 5 in Indiana, with the trends moving her way. A big win for her in Indiana and a closing and narrow defeat in North Carolina would have seemed to confirm her reasoning.

But instead Obama won resoundingly in the Tar Heel State, piling up a 56-42, 14- point win. He also came close to taking the Hoosier State, falling short by 2 percent at 51-49. The numbers should give Obama about 100 delegates to Clinton's 87. There are not enough delegates left in the remaining states to change the overall outcome, even if somehow Florida and Michigan are counted or revoted. Obama now leads by over 150 in the delegate count. Clinton would need nearly 200 of the 265 or so undeclared superdelegates to win at the convention. If they were to do that it would wreck the Party and hand the election to the Republicans. So they will not.

In the end, the voters appear to have resisted impulses to base their ballot on Rev. Wright or succumb to pandering on the gas tax issue. Obama increased his percentages among Catholics and working class whites, running about 10% better than he did in Pennsylvania. Barring getting struck by the political equivalent of the San Francisco earthquake, Barack Obama is now the presumptive Democratic nominee. The general election campaign now begins.