Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Showdown in Basra

The recent violent confrontations in Iraq again illustrate the ever-unfolding repercussions of America's intervention there. It is a veritable festival of unintended consequences.

First in evidence is the Nouri al-Maliki government's inability to control the country. The Iraqi Army's failure to make headway in Basra, the nation's second largest city, is yet another disapppointment for President Bush and other war supporters. After five years of American tutelage the government is still unable to exert its authority where it is not wanted.

Second is the fractionalized nature of Iraqi politics. The Army loyal to Maliki is primarily composed of the Shiite Dawa Party. It attempted to wrest Basra from a rival Shiite faction, the Mahdi Army loyal to Muktada al-Sadr. It is clear that not even all members of a given sect are on the same page.

Third is the insecurity of Baghdad. The "surge" was thought to have made great progress in pacifying the capital. But as soon as the fighting erupted in Basra, dozens of rockets and mortars began raining down on the Green Zone.

Fourth is the growing influence of Iran in Iraqi affairs. Sadr is now headquartered there, and it was Iranian officials who brokered the cease fire between the two sides. Bush, who early on designated Iran as part of the "axis of evil," cannot be pleased that Iranian President Ahmadinejad was recently received by Maliki in a state visit to Iraq and that it was Iran that was trusted enough by both sides to serve as intermediary.

These most recent developments underscore some of the latest ironic results of the ill-considered American adventure in Iraq. The war's supporters take every such setback as a challenge calling for further efforts to make things right. More and more Americans, however, see this newest snafu only as further confirmation of an irremediable mess, impervious to American resolution, that has to be left to the Iraqis to settle for themselves.

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