Here's the latest outlook on the upcoming battles for the Democratic nomination. Real Clear Politics has Obama with 1414 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1252. That's a lead of 162. Obama has been chipping away at Clinton's superdelegate lead, which now stands at 251-221, an edge of only 30. Taken together Obama thus has 1635 in his corner while Clinton can count on 1503. That's a 132-delegate lead for Obama.
There are still ten contests ahead in the final eight and a half weeks. From what we have seen, the demographic support of both contenders has set in fairly strongly now, and it's becoming easier to predict the winners. Obama does extremely well with African-Americans and young people, and well with men and upscale and better educated voters. Clinton does very well with Hispanics and older voters, and well with women and downscale whites. With these preferences in mind, it appears Clinton will do better than Obama from here on out, given the states that remain. The big question is whether she can catch him.
Pennsylvania votes on April 22 with 158 delegates at stake. Clinton should win there based on the large white working class vote, probably by about the same 10% margin she won neighboring Ohio. Guam holds the season's last caucuses on May 3 for 4 delegates. I have no information on the race there, but Obama has dominated caucuses and should get at least two if not three there.
North Carolina (115) and Indiana (72) vote on May 6. Obama should roll with the large black and university blocs in North Carolina to the tune of about a 15 point victory. Indiana is viewed as the last tossup. It has a lot of the rural whites who flock to Clinton but also good-sized urban areas in Indianapolis and Gary that should be Obama territory. Some feel Obama may get a boost from the proximity of his home state of Illinois and the fact that northern Indiana is in the enthusiastically pro-Obama Chicago media market. I'd still expect a narrow Clinton win in the Hoosier State.
West Virginia votes for 28 delegates on May 13. The nearly all-white, working class and older than average electorate should produce a smashing Clinton landslide. Similar conditions will prevail in Kentucky the next week on May 20 with 51 delegates up for grabs. Expect another rout for Clinton. She may approach 70% in these two states: I kid you not. See Tennessee's results for what to expect, except with a lot fewer blacks. Oregon with 52 delegates also votes on May 20. It's a made-for-Obama state and he'll take a double-digit win there.
Primary season wraps up with Puerto Rico (55 delegates) on June 1 and Montana (16) and South Dakota (15) on June 3. Puerto Rico is anybody's guess. Will they vote like Hispanics (for Clinton) or Blacks (for Obama)? They are both and neither, since their culture is quite different from that of either mainland group. Montana and South Dakota look easier to call for Obama, since he has done very well in the Mountain West states. The only worry for him is that most of those victories came in caucuses and these will be primary elections.
So let's err on the side of the underdog and posit Clinton 55-45 wins in Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico, 65-35 in West Virginia and Kentucky and 53-47 in Indiana. Let's estimate Obama takes North Carolina 55-45 and Oregon, North Dakota and Montana 53-47, and splits the four delegates in Guam. This projection gives Clinton 299 and Obama 257 of the pledged delegates still to be won, a margin of 42 in her favor. That would still leave her 120 behind Obama in pledged delegates and 90 behind overall. She would enter the convention trailing 1892-1802 and would need to convince 206, or 64%, of the 323 currently undecided superdelegates to vote for her to still gain the nomination. Practically all the superdelegates who have declared since February 5 have declared for Obama. The only foreseeable development likely to derail this scenario is a win by one of the candidates on the other's turf, such as Obama taking Pennsylvania or Clinton winning North Carolina. The polling to date does not support any realistic probablility of either event taking place. A Hillary Clinton triumph is not impossible, but it is a real longshot. Barring a minor political miracle Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee.
2 comments:
The upset in Pennsylvania might happen yet. Latest polls show Clinton's once 16 point lead down to single digits there now. It might be closer than you think by the time April 22 rolls around.
Yes, it could happen, but I'm not expecting it to. The pattern from other large states that started with big Clinton leads has been that Obama cuts deeply into those leads once he begins campaigning in them but still falls short. California, Texas and Ohio are prime examples. Three of eight polls released on the eve of Texas showed Obama ahead but he lost by 4. Two had him catching up in Ohio and California, where he lost by 10. It seems when they get in the booth a fair number of Hillary's beginning supporters come back to her.
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