The DA Has Trump's Taxes

 The Manhattan District Attorney has received eight years of Donald Trump's tax returns pursuant to a Supreme Court order delivered to Trump's accountants, Mazars. It will take DA Cyrus Vance Jr.'s team awhile to go through the "millions of pages" of records. High on the list of objectives will be to see if the Trump Organization committed tax fraud by lowballing the value of his properties to the IRS while committing bank fraud by overvaluing them to banks for the purpose of securing loans. They will also try to establish whether Trump or the organization, under Trump's authority made illegal payments, such as the ones Trump's longtime "fixer" Michael Cohen made as hush money to buy the silence of women who claim to have had affairs with Trump. Cohen has served prison time for this offense, which he said Trump ordered and later reimbursed him.

For Trump, the clock is ticking.

Covid-19 Vaccination

I got my second covid-19 shot (Pfizer) yesterday about 1:30 pm. Starting late morning today I've begun to experience flu-like symptoms. My temperature is elevated to 99.5 and I have general achiness and fatigue. I understand this is good; it shows my immune system believes it is under assault by the virus and is implementing its countermeasures, part of which should entail manufacturing the appropriate t-cells to attack the virus and saving the templates so they can be rapidly produced should the real culprit ever show up. This is all good, but I'd recommend you not schedule anything strenuous the day after your second shot. I'll see if things improve or not tomorrow and give you another update.

Biden and Harris Inaugurated

January 20, 2021, what a marvelous, happy day: the inauguration of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Over 180 years ago French visitor Alexis de Tocqueville wrote, "America is great because America is good." Over the past three months we have seen that that America still exists, that there is a chance for renewal, that honesty, decency, compassion, competence and inclusion are valued by most of us, and that there is reason for hope. Our better angels have indeed prevailed this day, and I am filled with gratitude.

Joint Chiefs Affirm Commitment to Constitution

Today the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the entire US military issued an extraordinary message to all members of the armed forces. It reminded all in uniform of that they took an oath to the Constitution and will obey only lawful orders. They stated that all citizens have the right to freedom of speech and assembly, but that the insurrectionary riot and invasion of the Capitol that took place on January 6 was a direct assault on the Constitution and democratic government. They affirmed our democratic processes and stated firmly that Joe Biden will be inaugurated on January 20. They closed with an admonition to all personnel to "stay ready" and "remain focused on the mission."

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Newsom Tabs Alex Padilla for Senator

Governor Gavin Newsom has appointed Secretary of State Alex Padilla for US Senator, to fill the unexpected term of Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris. This is who I was thinking it would likely be, and his selection pleases me. I've met him several times at state conventions. He's always there and accessible to the party activists, which is a good thing. He's from Socal instead of Norcal, which is some geographic balance the state can use. The Dem brass has been topheavy with Bay Area people, so that is a good thing. Most importantly, Padilla has been tremendously competent as Secretary of State. He's been terrifically proactive in terms of digitizing everything and incorporating online registration and the massive increase in vote by mail. He's put in the infrastructure and training that's made it work seamlessly in California. He's kept a low profile as SOS, just the right stance for someone whose job has been to non-partisanly and fairly administer the state's elections. And, as you know, he's Latino, California's plurality ethnicity. A major office holder of his background is long overdue. My plaudits to Governor Newsom; Alex Padilla is an excellent choice.

California Politicians Apparently Not So Corrupt

Corruption, I'd say, is largely a function of power without accountability, plus culture. By culture, I refer not only to the wider macro culture of the entire society, but even more specifically to the micro, or workplace culture. And then again, criminals of various types are drawn to certain professions where they can perpetrate their preferred deeds. Pedophiles are obviously drawn to jobs where they can work with kids, as we see in the scandals concerning scouting and clergy abuses. You would expect education too, and there have been instances, but not so many owing to a culture unsympathetic to their depredations and good accountability processes, at least here in California that I've seen. A politician, in most cases in order to get the job, is essentially a salesperson, with the product being themselves. That certainly can lend itself to all kinds of ethical problems with honesty, and then they have power once in. That power can open up the possibility of bribery and many types of corruption. One would think in these cases that criminal minds prone to sociopathy, narcissism and fraud might well be attracted to careers in politics. As with teaching, medicine and the other helping professions, we should expect to see predominantly the sincere attracted, especially if the established culture is above board and positive, but with always the danger of the predatorily self-serving insinuating themselves into the mix.

At the bottom of the page is the list of all California politicians convicted of crimes between 2010 and 2020. To these we can also add a Federal Representative, Duncan Hunter (R-CA 50), convicted in 2019 of using $250,000 in campaign money for personal expenditures. 

When you consider there are 58 counties, most with 5 elected supervisors, 482 incorporated cities, most with at least five council members, 977 school districts, most with at least five board members, 537 water districts, 40 state senate and 80 state assembly districts, and many other positions as well, (DA, Sheriffs, Assessors, Coroners, City Attorneys, Mayors, County and City Clerks, Registrars, as well as the statewide offices, you are talking tens of thousands of elected politicians in this state. 11 of them have been convicted of felonies in the past 10 years. 11, even though in almost all cases each of them faces rivals of the opposing party or even their own party, unhappy special interests, nosy journalists and other political enemies who have a vested interest in and would love to expose any illegal or inappropriate behavior they could find. 

California

• State Senator Ron Calderon (D), brother of Tom, was convicted of money laundering. (2016)^[26]
• State Assemblyman Tom Calderon (D), brother of Ron, was convicted of money laundering. (2016)^[27]
• State Senator Leland Yee (D) pleaded guilty to one count of racketeering (2015)^[28] and was sentenced to five years in prison (2016).^[29]
• State Senator Roderick Wright (D) was convicted of eight counts of perjury and voter fraud. He was sentenced to 90 days and barred him from ever holding public office again and will be required to perform 1,500 hours of community service and three years' probation under the terms of his conviction. (2014)^[30] Wright was pardoned in 2018.^[31]
• State Assemblywoman Mary Hayashi (D) was charged with felony grand theft after being caught on video surveillance allegedly shoplifting $2,445 worth of merchandise from San Francisco's Neiman Marcus store.^[32][33] She was sentenced to $180 fine and three years' probation and was ordered to stay more than 50 feet from the store. (2011)

Local

• District Attorney for Contra Costa County Mark Peterson (D) convicted of perjury. (2017)^{[citation needed]}
• Los Angeles County Sheriff of Los Angeles Lee Baca (D) convicted of obstructing the FBI. (2017)^[34]
• Mayor of Gardena Paul Tanaka (R) convicted of civil rights abuses. (2016)^[35]
• Sheriff of San Francisco Ross Mirkarimi (D) convicted of false imprisonment. (2013)^[36]
• Mayor of San Diego Bob Filner (D) given three months of house arrest, three years' probation, and partial loss of his mayoral pension after pleading guilty to state charges of false imprisonmentand battery. (2013)^[37]

I'm Becoming Optimistic About the Election

This spring Biden led in surveys. Even so, I presumed Trump would play his political cards well despite his malevolence and policy incompetence, and estimated the incumbent's electoral college chances at 65%. Now, stricken by Covid-19 himself as it rages through his unprotected government, and pulling the plug on economic relief negotiations as his own Fed Chair pleads for a bill and the economy falters, I feel he is sealing his political demise. In contrast to what I expected, Trump's politics have been as abysmal as his policies, and I feel things are starting to look very, very good to defeat him.

Financial services company Goldman Sachs today forecast that the Democrats will take both the White House and the Senate, and said a Democratic sweep would mean a faster recovery and thus would be good for the economy. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of another financial services company, recently found that Biden’s plans would add 7.4 million more jobs to the economy than Trump’s would.

Real Clear Politics state by state poll averages have Biden's current electoral vote at 374 and Trump's at 164. Nate Silver's 538 site has Biden's projected Election Day chance of coming out ahead in the popular vote at 93%, and of electoral college victory at 83%. I was listening to NPR yesterday. They had the editor of The Economist on. She said their forecast, based on both polls and broader "fundamentals," many of them economic, of course, has Biden's popular vote win probability at 99% and his electoral college win probability at 90%. A New York Times Sienna College Poll out yesterday showed Trump losing senior citizens, a group he won by 9 points in 2016. The handwriting is on the wall.