Newsom Tabs Alex Padilla for Senator

Governor Gavin Newsom has appointed Secretary of State Alex Padilla for US Senator, to fill the unexpected term of Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris. This is who I was thinking it would likely be, and his selection pleases me. I've met him several times at state conventions. He's always there and accessible to the party activists, which is a good thing. He's from Socal instead of Norcal, which is some geographic balance the state can use. The Dem brass has been topheavy with Bay Area people, so that is a good thing. Most importantly, Padilla has been tremendously competent as Secretary of State. He's been terrifically proactive in terms of digitizing everything and incorporating online registration and the massive increase in vote by mail. He's put in the infrastructure and training that's made it work seamlessly in California. He's kept a low profile as SOS, just the right stance for someone whose job has been to non-partisanly and fairly administer the state's elections. And, as you know, he's Latino, California's plurality ethnicity. A major office holder of his background is long overdue. My plaudits to Governor Newsom; Alex Padilla is an excellent choice.

California Politicians Apparently Not So Corrupt

Corruption, I'd say, is largely a function of power without accountability, plus culture. By culture, I refer not only to the wider macro culture of the entire society, but even more specifically to the micro, or workplace culture. And then again, criminals of various types are drawn to certain professions where they can perpetrate their preferred deeds. Pedophiles are obviously drawn to jobs where they can work with kids, as we see in the scandals concerning scouting and clergy abuses. You would expect education too, and there have been instances, but not so many owing to a culture unsympathetic to their depredations and good accountability processes, at least here in California that I've seen. A politician, in most cases in order to get the job, is essentially a salesperson, with the product being themselves. That certainly can lend itself to all kinds of ethical problems with honesty, and then they have power once in. That power can open up the possibility of bribery and many types of corruption. One would think in these cases that criminal minds prone to sociopathy, narcissism and fraud might well be attracted to careers in politics. As with teaching, medicine and the other helping professions, we should expect to see predominantly the sincere attracted, especially if the established culture is above board and positive, but with always the danger of the predatorily self-serving insinuating themselves into the mix.

At the bottom of the page is the list of all California politicians convicted of crimes between 2010 and 2020. To these we can also add a Federal Representative, Duncan Hunter (R-CA 50), convicted in 2019 of using $250,000 in campaign money for personal expenditures. 

When you consider there are 58 counties, most with 5 elected supervisors, 482 incorporated cities, most with at least five council members, 977 school districts, most with at least five board members, 537 water districts, 40 state senate and 80 state assembly districts, and many other positions as well, (DA, Sheriffs, Assessors, Coroners, City Attorneys, Mayors, County and City Clerks, Registrars, as well as the statewide offices, you are talking tens of thousands of elected politicians in this state. 11 of them have been convicted of felonies in the past 10 years. 11, even though in almost all cases each of them faces rivals of the opposing party or even their own party, unhappy special interests, nosy journalists and other political enemies who have a vested interest in and would love to expose any illegal or inappropriate behavior they could find. 

California

• State Senator Ron Calderon (D), brother of Tom, was convicted of money laundering. (2016)^[26]
• State Assemblyman Tom Calderon (D), brother of Ron, was convicted of money laundering. (2016)^[27]
• State Senator Leland Yee (D) pleaded guilty to one count of racketeering (2015)^[28] and was sentenced to five years in prison (2016).^[29]
• State Senator Roderick Wright (D) was convicted of eight counts of perjury and voter fraud. He was sentenced to 90 days and barred him from ever holding public office again and will be required to perform 1,500 hours of community service and three years' probation under the terms of his conviction. (2014)^[30] Wright was pardoned in 2018.^[31]
• State Assemblywoman Mary Hayashi (D) was charged with felony grand theft after being caught on video surveillance allegedly shoplifting $2,445 worth of merchandise from San Francisco's Neiman Marcus store.^[32][33] She was sentenced to $180 fine and three years' probation and was ordered to stay more than 50 feet from the store. (2011)

Local

• District Attorney for Contra Costa County Mark Peterson (D) convicted of perjury. (2017)^{[citation needed]}
• Los Angeles County Sheriff of Los Angeles Lee Baca (D) convicted of obstructing the FBI. (2017)^[34]
• Mayor of Gardena Paul Tanaka (R) convicted of civil rights abuses. (2016)^[35]
• Sheriff of San Francisco Ross Mirkarimi (D) convicted of false imprisonment. (2013)^[36]
• Mayor of San Diego Bob Filner (D) given three months of house arrest, three years' probation, and partial loss of his mayoral pension after pleading guilty to state charges of false imprisonmentand battery. (2013)^[37]

I'm Becoming Optimistic About the Election

This spring Biden led in surveys. Even so, I presumed Trump would play his political cards well despite his malevolence and policy incompetence, and estimated the incumbent's electoral college chances at 65%. Now, stricken by Covid-19 himself as it rages through his unprotected government, and pulling the plug on economic relief negotiations as his own Fed Chair pleads for a bill and the economy falters, I feel he is sealing his political demise. In contrast to what I expected, Trump's politics have been as abysmal as his policies, and I feel things are starting to look very, very good to defeat him.

Financial services company Goldman Sachs today forecast that the Democrats will take both the White House and the Senate, and said a Democratic sweep would mean a faster recovery and thus would be good for the economy. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of another financial services company, recently found that Biden’s plans would add 7.4 million more jobs to the economy than Trump’s would.

Real Clear Politics state by state poll averages have Biden's current electoral vote at 374 and Trump's at 164. Nate Silver's 538 site has Biden's projected Election Day chance of coming out ahead in the popular vote at 93%, and of electoral college victory at 83%. I was listening to NPR yesterday. They had the editor of The Economist on. She said their forecast, based on both polls and broader "fundamentals," many of them economic, of course, has Biden's popular vote win probability at 99% and his electoral college win probability at 90%. A New York Times Sienna College Poll out yesterday showed Trump losing senior citizens, a group he won by 9 points in 2016. The handwriting is on the wall.

Trump Insanity Intensifies

Reprinted from Heather Cox Richardson, Professor of History at Boston College, with permission.

It appears that the closing argument from the Trump campaign for his reelection was supposed to be that the Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, was overreacting to coronavirus, making fun, for example, of his insistence on wearing a mask and staying distant from others. 

Trump was supposed to project strength in the face of the pandemic, suggesting that it has been way overblown by Democrats who oppose his administration and who are thus responsible for the faltering economy.

Then, of course, coronavirus began to spread like wildfire through Trump’s own inner circle after last Sunday’s Rose Garden celebration of Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court seat formerly held by the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. As Trump and increasing numbers of people in his inner circle began to test positive for the infection, the campaign first floundered, and now appears to be trying to brazen out the idea that the disease is not a big deal, and that Trump has conquered it.

This is insane. Covid-19 has currently infected more than 7 million Americans, and killed more than 210,000 of us, close to the number of Union soldiers—224,097-- who died in our bloody four-year Civil War.

Apparently, it is frustrating Trump that he cannot campaign. Last night, he traveled in a motorcade around Walter Reed Hospital, waving to supporters. The trip horrified medical personnel, who noted that the presidential vehicle is sealed against chemical attack, meaning that the secret service professionals traveling with the president were exposed to a deadly disease for no apparent reason. One of the agents assigned to the First Family told CNN “That never should have happened… The frustration with how we’re treated when it comes to decisions on this illness goes back before this though. We’re not disposable.” 

Dr. James P. Phillips, from the Walter Reed Hospital, took to Twitter: “Every single person in the vehicle during that completely unnecessary Presidential “drive-by” just now has to be quarantined for 14 days. They might get sick. They may die. For political theater. Commanded by Trump to put their lives at risk for theater. This is insanity.”

Even staffers were complaining about the disorganization in the West Wing after Trump’s drive. But things did not get more anchored this morning. 

Early on, the president began to tweet at a great pace, in all caps, campaign slogans followed by the word “VOTE!” His promises were random and unanchored in reality, with words like “BIGGEST TAX CUT EVER, AND ANOTHER ONE COMING. VOTE!” According to Gabriel Sherman at Vanity Fair, the Trump family is divided over Trump’s performance. According to two Republicans close to the family, Don Jr. was worried by the drive around the hospital. “Don Jr. thinks Trump is acting crazy,” said one of the sources. But Ivanka, Eric, and Jared Kushner “keep telling Trump how great he’s doing.” All of them, though, worried about the morning’s tweet storm. 

The infection continues to spread through the White House. This morning, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany announced that she, too, has tested positive for coronavirus, a day after she briefed reporters without a mask. Two sources told CNN that two of McEnany’s deputies, Chad Gilmartin and Karoline Leavitt, have also tested positive, along with two members of the White House staff. McEnany said at first the White House was planning to put out the number of staffers infected, but then said it could not, out of “privacy concerns.” But of course there’s no privacy at stake in the raw numbers. 

Today we learned that another person who attended the Rose Garden event, Pastor Greg Laurie of the Harvest Christian Fellowship megachurches in California and Hawaii, has tested positive for coronavirus. In addition, thirteen workers who helped to cater a private Trump fundraiser last Thursday in Minnesota are all quarantining.

Although doctors expressed surprise and concern at the idea Trump might leave Walter Reed Hospital today, the president tweeted: “I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!” 

Doctors noted that he is in a dangerous period for the progression of Covid-19, and that anyone who had required the sorts of treatments Trump has had is too sick to leave the hospital. “I will bet dollars to doughnuts it’s the president and his political aides who are talking about discharge, not his doctors,” William Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University’s medical school, told the Washington Post. 

A briefing by Trump’s doctors obscured more than it revealed. The White House physician, Sean Conley, has refused to tell reporters when Trump last tested negative for coronavirus, a piece of information that would tell us when he knew he was infected. He also refused to explain why the president is being treated with a steroid usually reserved for seriously ill patients, or to discuss the state of Trump’s lungs. He did say that the president is “not out of 

the woods yet.”

Nonetheless, Trump left Walter Reed Hospital tonight, after lights had been installed to enable him to make a triumphant exit. Still infectious, he went back to the White House and climbed a flight of stairs to a balcony, where he dramatically removed his face mask and saluted well-wishers from a balcony. Although the moment was clearly designed to make Trump look strong, it was obvious he was struggling to breathe. 

Vox’s Aaron Rupar noted that “Trump has no choice but to continue to downplay coronavirus (despite 210,000 dead and record new case numbers) because if he changed course, it would be an admission that he was wrong about the defining issue of his presidency -- at the cost of tens of thousands of lives.” 

This evening, Trump released a video telling people not to let the coronavirus “dominate you. Don’t be afraid of it. You’re going to beat it…. Don’t let it take over your lives.” CNN chief White House correspondent Jim Acosta dubbed him “Coronavirus in Chief.” 

Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden held a town hall tonight in Miami, Florida, where he gave detailed answers to questions about police reform (more money, ban chokeholds and no knock warrants); socialism (“I’ve taken on the Castros of the world. I didn’t cozy up to them”); a mask mandate (the president can only mandate masks on federal property, but he would call on governors and mayors to do the same); and reopening schools (PPE, small classes, ventilation). Watchers noted that it was a treat both to see a normal conversation and to hear detailed, informed answers. 

To stay in touch with voters, Biden today began “Notes from Joe,” a daily newsletter.

Bloomberg is reporting that the contrast between the recent craziness of the White House and Biden’s calm detail has led the stock market to stabilize. Strategists are coming to think there will not be a contested election after all. Biden’s lead over Trump increased again after Trump’s debate performance, which apparently was designed to try to bully Biden by hitting triggers until he began to stutter, thus enabling the Trump campaign to portray him as mentally incapacitated. That strategy failed as Biden parried the triggers, and Americans were repelled by Trump’s behavior. Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote Bank SA, told Bloomberg, “Polls are shifting from a close election and prolonged uncertainty to more a dominant Biden and clean succession…. That is reducing uncertainty and increasing risk appetite.”

Can Trump's Economic Standing Save Him?

A friend sent me a recent New York Times article by Jim Tankersley on Trump's standing on the economy. The bottom line is that Trump is overall still rated better on the economy than Biden. I've been watching that too. It's the only issue running in Trump's favor, but it could be the most important issue. So if he's able to prevail, other than his efforts to cheat and manipulate the voting itself, that's what will have saved him.

The upshot of the article, when you read the details, is that Republicans still think Trump's great on the economy. That's not exactly a shocker. And Democrats think he's horrible. That's also predicable. Beyond that, here's a key passage from the article:

"But the plunge in economic activity since the coronavirus began to spread rapidly in the United States late this past winter has hurt Mr. Trump's standing on economic issues as well as his overall approval. Most polls now find Americans are evenly split on whether they approve of his handling of the issue. Gallup, for example, found Mr. Trump enjoyed a 48 percent approval rating on the economy this month, down from 63 percent in January. The decline was particularly acute among moderates, independents and voters who attended at least some college."

Here's link to the full Gallup Poll quoted above. 

So this is the guy who won the three Great Lakes battlegrounds by a combined 78,000 votes in 2016. That's much less than a 1% victory in all three, and he squeaked by in the biggest battleground, Florida, by 1%. Now his standing on the economy has tanked 15%. The decline was "particularly acute" among "moderates and independents," precisely the swing voters. So if, as the article says, almost all Republicans still think he walks on water, and almost all Democrats still think he is Lucifer in the flesh, and their views have scarcely changed from when his economic approval was at 63%, then how much has his economic standing among the third of voters who are moderate and independent declined in order to pull the whole average down by 15 points? Well, the simple arithmetic would put that at around 45%. That's enormous. And again, those are precisely the persuadable people, the "moderates and independents" who are the SWING VOTERS everyone is always talking about. 

Trump could still win. The economy is a potential lifeline, as long as his numbers there aren't as terrible as his numbers on everything else. He could also make headway on patriotism, as he defines it, and on fear of demonstrators, as he's trying to do with his "law and order" pitch. But he needs those numbers to get a lot better. The last four national polls that came in last week gave Biden an average 8.5% national lead. In 2016 Trump was able to eke out an electoral win BARELY, with a 2.1% national deficit. As of right now he's losing, and he'll need those economic numbers to improve substantially to reverse that. It may be possible, but they're not there yet. I'm sure he realizes where he stands and will be working hard to try to get there. 

What's Behind Trump's Frantic Efforts to Cheat?

Donald Trump is currently defunding and interfering with the operations of the US Postal Service and is spreading disinformation about the security and efficacy of voting by mail. I am convinced that a big part of Trump's desperation and frantic attempts to cheat come from his realization that once he is out of office his criminal immunity will end and his lap dog Attorney General William Barr won't be there to use the resources of the US government to shield Individual Number One. Joe Biden has already said "no way" when asked if he'd grant Trump a pardon. Trump's tax frauds, obstructions of justice, campaign finance violations, briberies and extortions will all be fair game and the agents he has impugned in the Southern District of New York and the FBI will be more than motivated to take him down. His complicit minions will sing like canaries to save themselves without him in office to grant them pardons and commutations.

Who is Donald Trump, Really?

Who is Donald Trump, really? Damon Linker, writing in "The Week" makes the case that Trump is awful, but that styling opposition to him as a "resistance" and calling his Administration a "regime" is taking things too far. Commentators like Linker woefully underestimate the danger Trump represents to American democracy. Yes, some people go too far. Yes, we are not (yet) an autocracy and people can (still) voice opposition. But Trump is doing everything he can to weaken these restraints. He lies constantly, blurring the very idea of objective fact. He actively tries to discredit those who report fact, referring to the real press that reports on him accurately with the Stalinist phrase "enemy of the people" and dismissing their factual reporting with the epithet "fake news." Like autocrats everywhere he seeks to deny people an independent source of information from his unending torrent of lies. If he gets his way we will no longer be a democracy, but a tyranny. Jefferson understood the vital role of free and independent media when he wrote, "Were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers or newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate to prefer the latter." He understood that without an informed populace democracy cannot be sustained against the unchallenged propaganda of a despot.

Trump calls for physical violence against the press, dissenters, criminal suspects and those exercising their First Amendment rights. He publicly calls for America to disregard humanitarian provisions of the Geneva Convention which we ourselves introduced to the world. He publicly calls for his political rivals who have been convicted of no crimes (nor even charged) to be thrown in jail. He silences or fires anyone who reports on his corruption or calls out his lies, followed by streams of vicious slander against them. He violates the Constitution by subjecting asylum seekers to cruel and unusual punishment (caging, dividing families, considering people guilty before judgment) and by spending moneys (for his wall, for instance) that have been legally appropriated by Congress for other purposes. He has subverted the security of the United States for his personal, corrupt purposes by attempting to extort a vulnerable foreign ally at war by denying it congressionally appropriated moneys (another breach of the Constitution which requires the president to see that the laws are faithfully executed and of his oath of office to support that Constitution) to force it to concoct lies to help him in his re-election effort. He has threatened to unleash the military power of the US armed forces against the civilian population. He has repeatedly lied to and knowingly spread disinformation to the American people about a deadly pandemic, resulting in the preventable deaths of tens of thousands of people to serve his imagined political self-interest. He has obstructed justice in a serial manner to hide a full investigation of his wrongdoings.

There has never been a president like Trump. Linker is wrong to say the military leaders, by opposing him, are dangerously injecting politics into the civilian-military chain of command. They take an oath to the Constitution, not to one man, and when that man orders them to violate the Constitution they are oath-bound to resist, disobey, and call him out, as they have begun to do. He is the one injecting politics into the military, trying to make it a tool of his racial and political enforcement, and if they go along and follow such orders he will succeed. Linker is wrong, for the road we are on leads to dictatorship. There were several years during Hitler's rise when he hadn't destroyed the free press, he was only talking about it. He hadn't sent Jews to concentration camps, he was only talking about persecuting them. Hitler hadn't launched his war of conquest, he was only talking about how the French, Poles and Russians had to be annihilated to make way for the growing multitudes of Aryan Germans. Many believed he was only spreading such venomous hate and making such outlandish pronouncements to rile up the people and get into power, and then he would become responsible and act like a gentleman. It turned out he meant every word of them and tried to carry out his program just as he had promised. Sixty-five million people paid the price for naïveté like that, entire continents were devastated, and hundreds of millions were thrown into tyranny for decades thereafter as a direct result.

When a man in charge of a powerful country says predominantly brown and black people constitute the "shithole countries," that Nazis and Klansmen are "very fine people," that anyone reporting the facts is a national "enemy," that he believes the dictator of Russia over his own loyal American public servants, that maybe his supporters will insist he serve more than two terms, that police ought to be able to mistreat suspects, that he has the right to order unidentifiable secret police to attack American citizens on the street to clear a way for his photo op, that people of a certain religion cannot immigrate to this country, that the military should be used to unleash a bloodletting on American streets, and that the power of the state should be used to make it more difficult for certain people to vote, we ought to take him at his word. "Resistance" is exactly the way we need to define our approach to such a person, and "regime" is exactly the way we ought to understand what he is trying to institute here.