Trump's Virus Lies and Inaction Cost 54,000 Lives, So Far

From today's New York Times, on the cost in lives of delaying the nation's coronavirus response, we see a damning indictment of Donald Trump's lies and disinformation.

Inaction that cost lives

By the final days of February, many public health experts were sounding the alarm about the coronavirus, and some people were listening.

In the San Francisco area, major employers began directing their employees to stay home. Washington State declared a state of emergency. South Korea, Vietnam and other countries ordered aggressive measures.

President Trump did not.

On Feb. 26, he said — incorrectly — that the number of cases was “going very substantially down, not up.” As late as March 10, he promised: “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

Some local leaders also continued to urge business as usual. In early March, Mayor Bill de Blasio told New Yorkers to “get out on the town despite coronavirus.”

This kind of advice appears to have cost tens of thousands of American lives, according to a new analysis by researchers at Columbia University.

If the U.S. had enacted social-distancing measures a week earlier than it did — in early March rather than mid-March — about 36,000 fewer Americans would have died, the study found. That’s more than one third of the current death toll, which is about 100,000.

If the measures had been in place two weeks earlier, on March 1, the death toll would be 54,000 lower.

By The New York Times

Trump's Risky Re-Election Reopening Strategy

President Donald Trump has assessed that economic carnage will destroy him in the election. Therefore he's decided to pull out all the stops, throw caution to the wind and push for a rapid re-opening. If the economy rebounds he is a winner and if it doesn't or just kind of muddles along in mediocrity he can at least say he tried. 

The risks for him are these: 1) first, people say 70-30 they are more worried about re-opening too soon than they are eager to reopen right away. They are more afraid of getting sick than the economic pain, at least currently. I would expect that to continue to shift in favor of reopening the more the economic pain grows, though, unless there is a very scary acceleration in infections and deaths (a real possibility, to be sure.) 

2) Data is showing an ominous price for Trump and the GOP's avidity in prioritizing the economy over safety with a group crucial to their electoral chances everywhere, particularly in swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. That group is senior citizens. Yes. They always count on their advantage with older voters to offset Dem support among younger voters. Lose that and they are in dire straits everywhere, because seniors exist everywhere and they vote in higher numbers than other groups. Throw grandma and grandpa under the bus and you just might pay a heavy cost. They are most at risk and most fearful, and polling shows they are deserting. Trump is truly between the proverbial rock and hard place, and has to pick one poison over the other. It will depend on how it all turns out, economic recovery and disease carnage will decide the outlines of the election. 

From NYT I cut and pasted; see ominous finding below:

A recent Morning Consult poll found that Mr. Trump’s approval rating on the handling of the coronavirus was lower with seniors than with any other group other than young voters. And Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the presumptive Democratic nominee, in recent polls held a 10-point advantage among voters who are 65 and older. A poll commissioned by the campaign showed a similar double-digit gap.

Vital Covid-19 Information

■ President Trump suggested that the shutdown to halt the spread of the virus would not be extended. “If it were up to the doctors, they’d say let’s shut down the entire world,” the president said. Relaxing the restrictions could significantly increase the death toll from the virus, public health officials warn.
■ An Arizona man died and his wife was hospitalized after officials said they self-medicated using a fish tank additive that has the same active ingredient as an anti-malaria drug promoted by the president.■ Officials in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak started, said today that public transportation would resume within 24 hours and that residents would be allowed to leave the city beginning April 8, as infections appeared to be dwindling.
The world infection rate is accelerating. Reported on Good Morning America this morning, it took 2 months to reach 100,000 global infections, 11 days from there to reach 200,000, and only five days after that to reach 300,000.  

Those figures plus the Wuhan experience show that if Trump can stay patient  another 4-5 weeks (or state governors defy him and maintain their own shutdowns strongly) we may be able to get the upper hand on this and get back to normal faster. If not, the virus will explode nationally, there will be carnage and we could have as many as 2 million US deaths.

Coronavirus Prospects

It's been reported that Italy suffered 793 deaths yesterday from Covid-19, the coronavirus pandemic. We are on a pace about 14 days behind them. Our death toll should be much higher. We have 5 1/2 times Italy’s population and our preparation for this pandemic and health system is no better than theirs. So if they are at 800 a day in a couple of weeks we ought to be at 4,400 a day. Think of it. All the troops we lost in Iraq in 9 years of war, that number dying every day from this virus. It’s mind boggling. Stay safe, friends!

Current State of the Presidential 2020 Contest

I feel there is a real path to the nomination for Sanders, who is almost certainly too far left for the general electorate. But thwart him with process and we alienate our future base. If Bloomberg comes in and takes it away from him the Berniecrats, who hate billionaires as it is, will, I suspect, be unforgiving and a lot of them will sit it out. See Michelle Goldberg's view in the New York Times.

There’s no doubt Biden’s lost a couple of steps. He’s a good man, knows every leader in the world on a first name basis, has worlds of experience and is progressive enough. But his ability to contend with Trump has to be seriously questioned. He’s not inspiring a lot of confidence. He’ll likely not do so well in NH. He should do well in NV and should win SC big. If he’s weak in those also, his campaign will evaporate. 


Warren is my personal favorite. I don’t see her in the top echelon in any polls anymore though. Klobuchar is looking better all the time but is unlikely to win the nomination. She could be a good running mate. Steyer, Yang, are going nowhere. The rest like Bennet, Patrick, can’t even qualify for the debate stage, are becoming jokes and should drop out.

That leaves Buttigieg. He’s running strong now, has put all his eggs in IO and NH and is strong there. He polls weak in the rest of the country though as of yet. But a win in NH could give him momentum, on top of his strong showing in Iowa. Pete is very smart and well spoken, a Rhodes Scholar. He has the veteran resume Trump doesn’t. He’s really good at throwing out platitudes in ways that relate well to millennials. If Biden implodes Pete might become the moderate alternative to Bernie. Blacks are famously skeptical of him, though, and of course he’s gay, has no high level experience past the city level and is only 38.

So that’s how I’m seeing the race. So how do we beat Trump? With Trump, youth, minorities and women. Theoretically he’s beatable. There’s almost no middle ground in this election. People love him or hate him. It’s going to be a turnout election. After 2016 there’s been great energy on the Democratic side. In 2017 they blew out the GOP in Virginia, gaining 50 seats and flipping the state legislature. In 2018 Dems flipped 40 congressional seats, including 4 in PA, 2 in Michigan, a couple in WI, FL, NC, the critical swing states Dems must win. Since 2016 Dems have gained 7 governorships, 40 House seats and over 300 state legislative seats. How? Running on health care, gun safety, and decency. Women and minorities find Trump repugnant. That’s not surprising; he’s done everything he can to insult them. Clinton won women by 13; current polling finds Trump losing them by 32, no typo. 

The economy, incumbency, Republican voter suppression, and all Trump’s brilliance at reaching the rural and working class white voter, especially men, and the configuration of the electoral college all work in Trump’s favor and still make him the favorite, in my view. But he’s potentially beatable if we can hold our voters together and get them out to vote, regardless of who our nominee is, if the process is seen as fair and our losing candidates all endorse and fight for the nominee. At any rate, that’s got to be the strategy and that’s the outline of our best hope to unseat the evil one, in my view.

Historians' Statement Endorsing Impeachment of President Trump.

I here reprint the American historians' statement supporting impeachment. It was written and is being circulated by Sean Willentz at Princeton. It currently has some 750 historian signatories. Here is the source. https://medium.com/@historiansonimpeachment/historians-statement-on-the-impeachment-

President Trump’s lawless obstruction of the House of Representatives, which is rightly seeking documents and witness testimony in pursuit of its constitutionally-mandated oversight role, has demonstrated brazen contempt for representative government. So have his attempts to justify that obstruction on the grounds that the executive enjoys absolute immunity, a fictitious doctrine that, if tolerated, would turn the president into an elected monarch above the law.

As Alexander Hamilton wrote in The Federalist, impeachment was designed to deal with “the misconduct of public men” which involves “the abuse or violation of some public trust.” Collectively, the President’s offenses, including his dereliction in protecting the integrity of the 2020 election from Russian disinformation and renewed interference, arouse once again the Framers’ most profound fears that powerful members of government would become, in Hamilton’s words, “the mercenary instruments of foreign corruption.”

It is our considered judgment that if President Trump’s misconduct does not rise to the level of impeachment, then virtually nothing does.

Hamilton understood, as he wrote in 1792, that the republic remained vulnerable to the rise of an unscrupulous demagogue, “unprincipled in private life, desperate in his fortune, bold in his temper, possessed of considerable talents…despotic in his ordinary demeanour.” That demagogue, Hamilton said, could easily enough manage “to mount the hobby horse of popularity — to join in the cry of danger to liberty — to take every opportunity of embarrassing the General Government & bringing it under suspicion — to flatter and fall in with all the non sense of the zealots of the day.” Such a figure, Hamilton wrote, would “throw things into confusion that he may ‘ride the storm and direct the whirlwind.’”

President Trump’s actions committed both before and during the House investigations fit Hamilton’s description and manifest utter and deliberate scorn for the rule of law and “repeated injuries” to constitutional democracy. That disregard continues and it constitutes a clear and present danger to the Constitution. We therefore strongly urge the House of Representatives to impeach the President.

Impeachment Poll Today

An ABC/Washington Post poll, a survey with a strong reputation for accuracy, was released today. It showed 49% in favor of impeachment and removal and 47% opposed. The same poll in July was 37% in favor and 59% against, so there has been movement. In my view, that number will have to go up to at least 60% for conviction in the US Senate to have any real chance of success. We’ll see how effective the televised, open hearings to come are in moving opinion more. There’s no question the Dems need to go ahead with this, given the blatant criminality and betrayal that’s been revealed. Still, I’d say the smart betting money currently would be about 80-20 that Trump isn’t convicted in the Senate.