One of the big news items of the week concerns outstanding economic news from the Census Bureau. Major progress in family income and a big drop in the poverty rate headlined a report that surprised many with gains that had not been seen in decades. The figures, covering 2015, were immediately touted by President Obama and ought to provide a boost to the Clinton campaign as they are good news for the incumbent party.
Median household income grew 5.2% for the year, to $56,516, a gain of $2,800 in one year. It was the largest year-to-year improvement since records have been kept. Even more remarkable, it was the poorer end of the population that saw the biggest gains. The bottom ten percent saw their average incomes grow by 7.8%, while the top ten percent grew by 2.9%. The poverty rate went from 14.8% in 2014 to 13.5% in 2015, the largest yearly percentage drop since 1968. Three and a half million people were lifted out of poverty status in one year. The minimum wage was raised in 20 states, likely a big part of the reason for the strong performance. The jobs picture was also strong. "Last year, 1.4 million more men and 1
million more women were working full time year-round than in 2014," the
census found.
There was good news on health care, too. 2015 saw 9.1% of Americans without health insurance, a drop from 10.4% the previous year, and the lowest uninsured rate on record. That was a single-year reduction of 4 million people, from 33 million to 29 million. The primary reason was the second full year of implementation the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare. These are rather spectacular gains. When the ACA was passed, some 15% of the population was not covered, about 47 million people. We thus already have 18 million more people, 6% of the population, insured than before the Act.
The news does not correspond to the Trump campaign's narrative of stagnating jobs and wages. Trump campaign economic spokesman Peter Navarro "did not respond to requests for comment" on the report. Meanwhile the President, campaigning for Clinton in Pennsylvania, said, "So now let's face it; the Republicans don't like to hear good news right now. But it's important just to understand this is a big deal. More Americans are working, more have health insurance, incomes are rising, poverty is falling, and gas is $2 a gallon...Thanks, Obama!"
Showing posts with label Obama Barack. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Obama Barack. Show all posts
Thursday, September 15, 2016
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
Replacing Scalia
I confess it was with no great sadness that I heard of the passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia this past weekend. Known as the intellectual linchpin of the tribunal's conservative wing, Justice Scalia took great pains to protect the rights of corporations as if they were people but paid scant attention to protecting the rights of actual people. President Obama has announced he will fulfill his constitutional duty under Article II to nominate a successor. Now we will find out whether the Republican majority in the Senate will go through with its threats to refuse to exercise its constitutional mandate to vote to confirm or deny the president's choice. If so, their political flackery will have reached unprecedented heights, even for them. Such a course would likely hurt them in this November's election.
Scalia voted with the 5-4 majority to stop the 2000 Florida recount, awarding the presidency to George W. Bush without the inconvenience of an accurate vote tabulation. He was the similarly deciding vote in cases that overturned forty years of precedents and gave corporations the same rights as human beings, the Citizens United and McCutcheon rulings. He voted to gut the enforcement provisions of the Voting Rights Act, another 5-4 ruling that has been used, through GOP gerrymandering, to once again disenfranchise black voting strength across the South. In his opinion the Fourteenth Amendment ("No state shall...deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.") does not guarantee equal rights for women and LGBT Americans. He stated "In 1868, when the 39th Congress was debating and ultimately proposing the 14th Amendment, I don't think anybody would have thought that equal protection applied to sex discrimination, or certainly not to sexual orientation. So does that mean that we've gone off in error by applying the 14th Amendment to both? Yes, yes. Sorry to tell you that." (Source of Scalia quote.) It does not sadden me that such a jurist is no longer on the bench of the nation's highest court.
Within hours of news of Scalia's death, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced that no vote would be taken on any successor until after the November election, that a new president should make the selection. McConnell's gambit would deny President Obama the opportunity to name a progressive jurist, hoping for a Republican victory to allow conservatives to maintain their majority on the tribunal. Obama, however, in his own statement, promised to exercise his constitutional responsibility to fill the vacancy, and called on the Senate to follow theirs, to vet the nominee and have a vote. Here are the political considerations. If the Republicans dig in their heels and refuse action they will succeed in ginning up their own base. Committed conservatives would be more motivated to come out and vote for President to prevent a liberal Supreme Court majority. But the converse is also true. Democrats would make this a major issue, firing up their own base to show up and ensure a new Court more friendly to consumers and minorities than corporations and bigots. The deciding factor would be with independents. I feel the maneuver would push most independents in the Democrats' direction. If Obama were to nominate someone who has been already unanimously confirmed by the whole Senate for a lower Court position, independents would see the Republican tactic for the partisan political power play it is, hurting them with the undecideds and helping Democrats in close congressional elections and in battleground states if the presidential election is close. That's why we are already starting to see some GOP senators back away from the scorched earth approach. Look for the next three weeks to tell the story. By then the President will make his nomination and the ball will be in McConnell's "court," so to speak.
Scalia voted with the 5-4 majority to stop the 2000 Florida recount, awarding the presidency to George W. Bush without the inconvenience of an accurate vote tabulation. He was the similarly deciding vote in cases that overturned forty years of precedents and gave corporations the same rights as human beings, the Citizens United and McCutcheon rulings. He voted to gut the enforcement provisions of the Voting Rights Act, another 5-4 ruling that has been used, through GOP gerrymandering, to once again disenfranchise black voting strength across the South. In his opinion the Fourteenth Amendment ("No state shall...deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.") does not guarantee equal rights for women and LGBT Americans. He stated "In 1868, when the 39th Congress was debating and ultimately proposing the 14th Amendment, I don't think anybody would have thought that equal protection applied to sex discrimination, or certainly not to sexual orientation. So does that mean that we've gone off in error by applying the 14th Amendment to both? Yes, yes. Sorry to tell you that." (Source of Scalia quote.) It does not sadden me that such a jurist is no longer on the bench of the nation's highest court.
Within hours of news of Scalia's death, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced that no vote would be taken on any successor until after the November election, that a new president should make the selection. McConnell's gambit would deny President Obama the opportunity to name a progressive jurist, hoping for a Republican victory to allow conservatives to maintain their majority on the tribunal. Obama, however, in his own statement, promised to exercise his constitutional responsibility to fill the vacancy, and called on the Senate to follow theirs, to vet the nominee and have a vote. Here are the political considerations. If the Republicans dig in their heels and refuse action they will succeed in ginning up their own base. Committed conservatives would be more motivated to come out and vote for President to prevent a liberal Supreme Court majority. But the converse is also true. Democrats would make this a major issue, firing up their own base to show up and ensure a new Court more friendly to consumers and minorities than corporations and bigots. The deciding factor would be with independents. I feel the maneuver would push most independents in the Democrats' direction. If Obama were to nominate someone who has been already unanimously confirmed by the whole Senate for a lower Court position, independents would see the Republican tactic for the partisan political power play it is, hurting them with the undecideds and helping Democrats in close congressional elections and in battleground states if the presidential election is close. That's why we are already starting to see some GOP senators back away from the scorched earth approach. Look for the next three weeks to tell the story. By then the President will make his nomination and the ball will be in McConnell's "court," so to speak.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Obama SOTU a Masterpiece
President Obama's last State of the Union Address (watch it here) focused primarily on three things: what's been accomplished so far, what will need doing for the future, and areas where the two parties might actually be able to work together to get some things done in the near term. Throughout, the President was able to display the winning personality, oratorical skills and compelling logic that won him two national elections.
Accomplishments included recovery from the worst economy since the Great Depression, the reform of health care, much improved health care for veterans, ending the Cold War with Cuba, forging a climate agreement with nearly 200 nations, getting Iran to stop its nuclear program, and securing "the freedom in every state to marry the person we love." There was much to praise about achievements in the economy. "People who say our economy is in decline are peddling fiction," he said. The U.S. economy is the strongest in the world, with 14 million jobs created during the longest job growth streak in history, autos having their best year ever, oil imports down by 60%, "gas under two bucks a gallon isn't too bad either," more Americans employed in solar now than coal, and 18 million people newly covered with health care. He pointed out that too much of the growth is going to the high earners, and that "regular people don't get bigger paychecks by letting corporations write all the rules."
Obama's look into the future featured four aspects: broadening opportunity and security, making the "tech revolution work for us rather than against us," "how to keep the world safe without being the world's policeman," and how to "make our politics reflect what's best in us, not the worst." The last of these had some clear digs at the type of bombastic and xenophobic demagoguery currently apparent in the Republican presidential campaign field. His words may have little effect with them, but at least he has the satisfaction of being right.
The President thanked Speaker Ryan (behind him, right in the picture above) for helping shepherd a compromise budget through the House, and saluted congress for education reform with the recent No Child Left Behind overhaul. He went on to outline areas where he felt the two parties ought to be able to take action in a bipartisan fashion soon. There is, for example, a growing consensus for a more rehabilitative criminal justice reform. Progress is imminent on help for prescription drug and heroin addiction. And Obama got his best reception when proposing a massive new "moon shot program to eradicate cancer," naming Vice President Joe Biden (back left in the photo above), who lost his son to cancer last year, to head the effort. This was greeting by thunderous roars from both sides of the aisle.
President Obama closed with the theme that brought the then-relatively unknown Illinois State Senator Barack Obama to national prominence in a speech to the 2004 Democratic National Convention that nominated John Kerry. "All this is within our reach. But it will only happen if we can work together...to fix our politics. Democracy requires basic trust among us, and grinds to a halt when we refuse to compromise...A lot of politicians are trapped by the rancor of their base--we must change the system!"
The President pointed to the need for nonpartisan redistricting, reducing the influence of money in the political process and making it easier to vote. He remarked that the only thing he really regrets about his time in office has been his inability to make much of a dent in overcoming the political polarization rampant in government. But he urged the American people to reject cynicism and insist their representatives reflect the people's desire to work together for the common good. His voice has been the right message at the right time in our national story. That it has not been much heard by the Republicans is disappointing, but has not dimmed its righteousness or the inevitability of its triumph in the end if America is to survive. As Dr. Martin Luther King reminded us, "We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools."
Accomplishments included recovery from the worst economy since the Great Depression, the reform of health care, much improved health care for veterans, ending the Cold War with Cuba, forging a climate agreement with nearly 200 nations, getting Iran to stop its nuclear program, and securing "the freedom in every state to marry the person we love." There was much to praise about achievements in the economy. "People who say our economy is in decline are peddling fiction," he said. The U.S. economy is the strongest in the world, with 14 million jobs created during the longest job growth streak in history, autos having their best year ever, oil imports down by 60%, "gas under two bucks a gallon isn't too bad either," more Americans employed in solar now than coal, and 18 million people newly covered with health care. He pointed out that too much of the growth is going to the high earners, and that "regular people don't get bigger paychecks by letting corporations write all the rules."
Obama's look into the future featured four aspects: broadening opportunity and security, making the "tech revolution work for us rather than against us," "how to keep the world safe without being the world's policeman," and how to "make our politics reflect what's best in us, not the worst." The last of these had some clear digs at the type of bombastic and xenophobic demagoguery currently apparent in the Republican presidential campaign field. His words may have little effect with them, but at least he has the satisfaction of being right.
The President thanked Speaker Ryan (behind him, right in the picture above) for helping shepherd a compromise budget through the House, and saluted congress for education reform with the recent No Child Left Behind overhaul. He went on to outline areas where he felt the two parties ought to be able to take action in a bipartisan fashion soon. There is, for example, a growing consensus for a more rehabilitative criminal justice reform. Progress is imminent on help for prescription drug and heroin addiction. And Obama got his best reception when proposing a massive new "moon shot program to eradicate cancer," naming Vice President Joe Biden (back left in the photo above), who lost his son to cancer last year, to head the effort. This was greeting by thunderous roars from both sides of the aisle.
President Obama closed with the theme that brought the then-relatively unknown Illinois State Senator Barack Obama to national prominence in a speech to the 2004 Democratic National Convention that nominated John Kerry. "All this is within our reach. But it will only happen if we can work together...to fix our politics. Democracy requires basic trust among us, and grinds to a halt when we refuse to compromise...A lot of politicians are trapped by the rancor of their base--we must change the system!"
The President pointed to the need for nonpartisan redistricting, reducing the influence of money in the political process and making it easier to vote. He remarked that the only thing he really regrets about his time in office has been his inability to make much of a dent in overcoming the political polarization rampant in government. But he urged the American people to reject cynicism and insist their representatives reflect the people's desire to work together for the common good. His voice has been the right message at the right time in our national story. That it has not been much heard by the Republicans is disappointing, but has not dimmed its righteousness or the inevitability of its triumph in the end if America is to survive. As Dr. Martin Luther King reminded us, "We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools."
Tuesday, January 5, 2016
Obama Does What He Can on Guns
I am often reminded how proud I am to have voted for President Barack Obama twice. He invariably pursues a course trying to serve the needs and interests of the American people as a whole. Today was again one of those days. This morning he addressed the nation to present common sense Executive actions he is taking to enforce the laws and stem the carnage visited upon America by gun violence, a plague that kills some 30,000 Americans every year. These actions fall under four steps.
The first is to tighten up the currently required background check system. Anyone selling firearms must get a license and conduct background checks. This will effectively close the "gun show loophole" problem. In order to facilitate this, the computer system will be upgraded and more workers will be assigned to do the checks. "Anyone selling firearms must get a license and conduct background checks or they will be indicted and prosecuted," the President said.
The second is also about beefing up enforcement. The President directs that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms hire and train 200 new agents. The new regulations will require and the additional agents will make possible the more rapid reporting of lost or stolen guns, and empower greater scrutiny and enforcement against offenders convicted of domestic violence.
Step three comprises more resources for mental health. It includes the redirection of $500 million into expanded access for mental health treatment. The Affordable Care Act already provides the framework for delivering these services, and most of the mass shooters of recent years have been seriously mentally disturbed. This directive also requires that such mental health records be reported to those doing the background checks and to state agencies as well.
The fourth area is about requiring safety technology in guns. 500 shooting deaths a year come from accidents, many involving children, and hundreds of murders are committed with stolen guns. The President observed that phones can be protected so the owner's fingerprint is needed for activation. Why not for guns? Through GPS we can locate an iPad wherever it is. Why not a gun? Aspirin tablets have childproof caps. Why not gun safeties or triggers? New regulations will be forthcoming on such specifics.
These are all eminently sensible safeguards, already permitted by law and supported by the vast majority of the American people. The President teared up when going over the list of school shootings, including the first graders at Newtown. "Every time I think about those kids it gets me mad," he explained. He wants more steps too, but frankly admitted they won't be enacted during his presidency by this Congress, and called on citizens to make their voices and votes known. Connecticut, for example, has seen a 40% reduction in gun deaths since enacting 100% mandatory background checks, and Missouri has seen its spike to 50% above the national average since getting rid of theirs.
He concluded, "The gun lobby may hold Congress hostage but they can't hold America hostage. Yes, they are well organized, but we need to be just as organized in defense of our kids. If they know it's going to be harder to win elections if they keep blocking these laws they'll stop blocking these laws, I promise you." CNN will host a Presidential Town Hall on gun issues Thursday at 5:00 P.M. PST.
The first is to tighten up the currently required background check system. Anyone selling firearms must get a license and conduct background checks. This will effectively close the "gun show loophole" problem. In order to facilitate this, the computer system will be upgraded and more workers will be assigned to do the checks. "Anyone selling firearms must get a license and conduct background checks or they will be indicted and prosecuted," the President said.
The second is also about beefing up enforcement. The President directs that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms hire and train 200 new agents. The new regulations will require and the additional agents will make possible the more rapid reporting of lost or stolen guns, and empower greater scrutiny and enforcement against offenders convicted of domestic violence.
Step three comprises more resources for mental health. It includes the redirection of $500 million into expanded access for mental health treatment. The Affordable Care Act already provides the framework for delivering these services, and most of the mass shooters of recent years have been seriously mentally disturbed. This directive also requires that such mental health records be reported to those doing the background checks and to state agencies as well.
The fourth area is about requiring safety technology in guns. 500 shooting deaths a year come from accidents, many involving children, and hundreds of murders are committed with stolen guns. The President observed that phones can be protected so the owner's fingerprint is needed for activation. Why not for guns? Through GPS we can locate an iPad wherever it is. Why not a gun? Aspirin tablets have childproof caps. Why not gun safeties or triggers? New regulations will be forthcoming on such specifics.
These are all eminently sensible safeguards, already permitted by law and supported by the vast majority of the American people. The President teared up when going over the list of school shootings, including the first graders at Newtown. "Every time I think about those kids it gets me mad," he explained. He wants more steps too, but frankly admitted they won't be enacted during his presidency by this Congress, and called on citizens to make their voices and votes known. Connecticut, for example, has seen a 40% reduction in gun deaths since enacting 100% mandatory background checks, and Missouri has seen its spike to 50% above the national average since getting rid of theirs.
He concluded, "The gun lobby may hold Congress hostage but they can't hold America hostage. Yes, they are well organized, but we need to be just as organized in defense of our kids. If they know it's going to be harder to win elections if they keep blocking these laws they'll stop blocking these laws, I promise you." CNN will host a Presidential Town Hall on gun issues Thursday at 5:00 P.M. PST.
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Obama Adminstration Achievements in 2015
Despite opposition from and dysfunction in the Republican-controlled congress, 2015 has been another year of remarkable achievements for the Obama administration. On the economic front, the past 12 months have seen the creation of 2,637,00 jobs, and the all-time record of consecutive positive job creation months is now up to 69. A moderate growth rate of 2.1% combined with a low 0.5% inflation rate has yielded a healthy net growth rate of 1.6% over inflation. The United States is now the largest oil producer in the world, while at the same time renewable energy production continues to break records with each passing day and fuel economy continues to grow. The result is a 27% reduction in oil imports and a huge price savings for the American consumer at the pump. Here's a list of the highlights of accomplishments in 2015.
April 16: New Medicare reimbursement formula rewards doctors for health outcomes instead of just for performing services.
April 16: Medicare Access and CHIP (Children's Health) Reauthorization Act signed.
June 30: Overtime pay threshold for hourly workers improved from $23,660 through $50,440.
July 14: US and Cuba reopen embassies after 54 years.
July 16: US and six major powers reach agreement with Iran to curb its nuclear program and accept inspections in exchange for sanctions relief.
August 4: Each state required to reduce its carbon emissions to set targets by 2030.
August 18: First openly transgender employee hired by the White House.
September 3: Discrimination against transgender people in health or medical insurance is banned.
September 7: Employees of federal contractors must be offered at least 7 days of paid sick leave per year.
September 18: First openly gay American nominated for Secretary of the Army.
October 6: Sentences reduced and adapted for 6,000 people serving excessive punishment for nonviolent crimes.
October 22: 70 ISIS hostages rescued in Iraq by US Special Forces.
November 6: Keystone Oil Pipeline rejected for not serving the interests of the United States.
December 3: All military positions become open to females.
December 10: Every Student Succeeds Act signed.
April 16: New Medicare reimbursement formula rewards doctors for health outcomes instead of just for performing services.
April 16: Medicare Access and CHIP (Children's Health) Reauthorization Act signed.
June 30: Overtime pay threshold for hourly workers improved from $23,660 through $50,440.
July 14: US and Cuba reopen embassies after 54 years.
July 16: US and six major powers reach agreement with Iran to curb its nuclear program and accept inspections in exchange for sanctions relief.
August 4: Each state required to reduce its carbon emissions to set targets by 2030.
August 18: First openly transgender employee hired by the White House.
September 3: Discrimination against transgender people in health or medical insurance is banned.
September 7: Employees of federal contractors must be offered at least 7 days of paid sick leave per year.
September 18: First openly gay American nominated for Secretary of the Army.
October 6: Sentences reduced and adapted for 6,000 people serving excessive punishment for nonviolent crimes.
October 22: 70 ISIS hostages rescued in Iraq by US Special Forces.
November 6: Keystone Oil Pipeline rejected for not serving the interests of the United States.
December 3: All military positions become open to females.
December 10: Every Student Succeeds Act signed.
Monday, December 7, 2015
Obama Address on Terrorism
I watched President Obama's Oval Office "Address on Terrorism" Sunday night. His remarks were occasioned by recent events. ISIS or ISIS-inspired terrorists have put themselves squarely in the public's consciousness as a result of the highly organized internationally directed attack in Paris and then the seemingly independently undertaken attack in San Bernardino, California. The President showed the gravity of the matter by speaking to the public from the Oval Office for only the third time in his presidency.
He tried to strike a balance between respecting the seriousness of the threat, reassuring the American people that all reasonable steps are being taken, and making an appeal to remember our values. Mr. Obama stated that "ISIS and any other organization that threatens Americans must and will be destroyed." He pledged that the ongoing campaign would be "strong and smart, resilient and ruthless." But he also made a plea that anger over terrorism not turn into intolerance against the Muslim religion and Muslim Americans as a whole.
The actions highlighted were a continuation of what is already being done, including stepped-up air attacks and special forces raids in Iraq and Syria, training of more Iraqi, Kurdish and Syrian forces, cutting off terrorist funding sources, enlisting more Muslim authorities to counter ISIS propaganda about the true nature of Muslim teachings, and pursuing diplomatic efforts to expand the growing coalition and a cease-fire in Syria that would allow all parties to focus on eliminating ISIS. These are all the same strategies every Republican and Democratic presidential candidate except two are already advocating. The two exceptions are Lindsay Graham, who wants to invade with American ground troops and Donald Trump, who is advocating fascist tactics like "registering all American Muslims," "going after the families" of terrorists and preventing any Muslim from entering the United States.
President Obama asked for congressional help on four items. He wants an official authorization of the use of military force, legislation mandating tighter screening for those entering the US without a Visa, a law making it illegal to sell a gun to anyone on a terrorist watch list, and a law making it harder for people to buy "high-powered assault rifles." The second and third of these requests might conceivably be passed, but the first and fourth have no chance in a majority Republican congress. Republicans overwhelmingly support the kinds of military action the President is taking, but they have heretofore avoided taking such a vote, likely afraid that if things go sideways they might be held partially to blame. It's easier and politically safer to criticize and shout louder for "stronger measures" without being specific about what those ought to be.
As always, Obama is focused on practicality. If it's not particularly glamorous to caution that this is going to take resolve and patience, the fact is that it will. There is a great deal of difference between running for president and being President. That's certainly been on display in the past week.
He tried to strike a balance between respecting the seriousness of the threat, reassuring the American people that all reasonable steps are being taken, and making an appeal to remember our values. Mr. Obama stated that "ISIS and any other organization that threatens Americans must and will be destroyed." He pledged that the ongoing campaign would be "strong and smart, resilient and ruthless." But he also made a plea that anger over terrorism not turn into intolerance against the Muslim religion and Muslim Americans as a whole.
The actions highlighted were a continuation of what is already being done, including stepped-up air attacks and special forces raids in Iraq and Syria, training of more Iraqi, Kurdish and Syrian forces, cutting off terrorist funding sources, enlisting more Muslim authorities to counter ISIS propaganda about the true nature of Muslim teachings, and pursuing diplomatic efforts to expand the growing coalition and a cease-fire in Syria that would allow all parties to focus on eliminating ISIS. These are all the same strategies every Republican and Democratic presidential candidate except two are already advocating. The two exceptions are Lindsay Graham, who wants to invade with American ground troops and Donald Trump, who is advocating fascist tactics like "registering all American Muslims," "going after the families" of terrorists and preventing any Muslim from entering the United States.
President Obama asked for congressional help on four items. He wants an official authorization of the use of military force, legislation mandating tighter screening for those entering the US without a Visa, a law making it illegal to sell a gun to anyone on a terrorist watch list, and a law making it harder for people to buy "high-powered assault rifles." The second and third of these requests might conceivably be passed, but the first and fourth have no chance in a majority Republican congress. Republicans overwhelmingly support the kinds of military action the President is taking, but they have heretofore avoided taking such a vote, likely afraid that if things go sideways they might be held partially to blame. It's easier and politically safer to criticize and shout louder for "stronger measures" without being specific about what those ought to be.
As always, Obama is focused on practicality. If it's not particularly glamorous to caution that this is going to take resolve and patience, the fact is that it will. There is a great deal of difference between running for president and being President. That's certainly been on display in the past week.
Saturday, October 3, 2015
Obama, Tired of Games, Demands Budget
President Obama held a remarkable press conference yesterday. He served notice that he's not finished addressing gun violence, but of potentially even greater importance, the President gave congress what amounts to an ultimatum to work with him on getting a permanent budget in place with a deadline of December 11.
First, on the latest gun massacre he made a couple of good points in a new way. He compared the ongoing carnage to reducing auto accident deaths. He admitted that yes, the types of common-sense laws that have been proposed won't end all gun deaths, just as things like seat belts, air bags and better car and road engineering haven't ended all auto crash deaths. But they have reduced the rate by 75%. To say that because we can't save every life means that we should not try to save any lives or as many as we can is fatalistic and not in the normal American character. His other point on this topic was that to make headway the majority who favor these common sense improvements will need to make them a voting priority in order to get congress to change. That's because the minority of intransigent pro-gun voters are single-minded in that way and their intensity must be matched by the other side if they want to win. The President vowed to keep speaking out on the issue.
In what may have been his most important statement, President Obama laid down a marker regarding the budget. Referring to the stopgap continuing resolution to keep the government funded for 10 weeks through December 11, the President said he would not sign another such bill. He is going to insist that congress produce an actual budget. The national budget is frozen at sequester levels "temporarily" agreed to four years ago. They are pegged to the 2006 budget. Since then our population has grown 8% and the national economy has grown 12%. Many things need more money to provide the same service, some things need increases to meet new needs, and some things should be scaled down or cancelled, since they either don't work or have achieved their objectives. The resulting straight jacket produces a spending pattern that is increasingly out of sync with national needs. He was right to call it irresponsible. He is ready to negotiate on taxes and spending priorities and calls upon the Republican leadership in congress to do likewise.
Also relating to the budget, Obama put some things off limits. First, the debt ceiling needs to be raised even before December 11. There will be no negotiation on this; congress just needs to do it. Second, he will not give in to blackmail over Planned Parenthood. Some in the GOP are threatening a new shutdown over it. Obama said he understands their intensity of feeling on the matter, but it is inadmissible to jeopardize the entire economy and the full faith and credit of the USA over it. He said he feels the same way about the importance of gun legislation, but would never use that as a lever to threaten to wreck the American economy and hurt millions over an unrelated issue. Imagine, he said, if I threatened to crash the American economy if I didn't get my way over gun laws. It would be crazy. For them to threaten to do so over the debt limit for money they've already spent, or on the budget itself, is nothing less.
In our constitutional system, the President concluded, neither he nor congress can work their will without the other. They need to confer and negotiate. Because they have differing views, there will need to be compromises. He is tired of the posturing, resolute about rejecting blackmail, and ready to talk and get something done. He's right. Enough extremism is enough, it's time to govern.
First, on the latest gun massacre he made a couple of good points in a new way. He compared the ongoing carnage to reducing auto accident deaths. He admitted that yes, the types of common-sense laws that have been proposed won't end all gun deaths, just as things like seat belts, air bags and better car and road engineering haven't ended all auto crash deaths. But they have reduced the rate by 75%. To say that because we can't save every life means that we should not try to save any lives or as many as we can is fatalistic and not in the normal American character. His other point on this topic was that to make headway the majority who favor these common sense improvements will need to make them a voting priority in order to get congress to change. That's because the minority of intransigent pro-gun voters are single-minded in that way and their intensity must be matched by the other side if they want to win. The President vowed to keep speaking out on the issue.
In what may have been his most important statement, President Obama laid down a marker regarding the budget. Referring to the stopgap continuing resolution to keep the government funded for 10 weeks through December 11, the President said he would not sign another such bill. He is going to insist that congress produce an actual budget. The national budget is frozen at sequester levels "temporarily" agreed to four years ago. They are pegged to the 2006 budget. Since then our population has grown 8% and the national economy has grown 12%. Many things need more money to provide the same service, some things need increases to meet new needs, and some things should be scaled down or cancelled, since they either don't work or have achieved their objectives. The resulting straight jacket produces a spending pattern that is increasingly out of sync with national needs. He was right to call it irresponsible. He is ready to negotiate on taxes and spending priorities and calls upon the Republican leadership in congress to do likewise.
Also relating to the budget, Obama put some things off limits. First, the debt ceiling needs to be raised even before December 11. There will be no negotiation on this; congress just needs to do it. Second, he will not give in to blackmail over Planned Parenthood. Some in the GOP are threatening a new shutdown over it. Obama said he understands their intensity of feeling on the matter, but it is inadmissible to jeopardize the entire economy and the full faith and credit of the USA over it. He said he feels the same way about the importance of gun legislation, but would never use that as a lever to threaten to wreck the American economy and hurt millions over an unrelated issue. Imagine, he said, if I threatened to crash the American economy if I didn't get my way over gun laws. It would be crazy. For them to threaten to do so over the debt limit for money they've already spent, or on the budget itself, is nothing less.
In our constitutional system, the President concluded, neither he nor congress can work their will without the other. They need to confer and negotiate. Because they have differing views, there will need to be compromises. He is tired of the posturing, resolute about rejecting blackmail, and ready to talk and get something done. He's right. Enough extremism is enough, it's time to govern.
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
Obama Makes Strong State of the Union Speech
I enjoyed President Obama's sixth State of the Union Address tonight. He began by making a convincing case that we've turned the economic corner as a nation and are definitely in strong recovery. He wasn't bashful about taking credit for the improvement despite constant predictions of doom from the Republicans. The U.S has produced more jobs, over 11 million, the past five years that Europe, Japan and the rest of the advanced world combined. We add more solar capacity every three weeks than existed in the U.S. in 2008, are less dependent on foreign oil than at any time in the past 30 years, and the low price of oil is a windfall to the American consumer. Millions have health care who didn't and health cost growth is the lowest in decades. It was a strong vindication of his course.
He had a long list of policy plans, almost all of them liberal: affordable child care, equal pay for women, sick leave for all workers, free community college, generous student loan refinancing, massive infrastructure construction, medical research, net neutrality, tax reform to close loopholes and incentives to offshore jobs, increased tax child credits for the middle class, and minimum wage hikes, to name a few.
In foreign affairs he spoke often of using a range of techniques beyond military, though he wanted a use of force authorization from congress vs. ISIS, or ISIL. He pointed out the effectiveness of diplomacy and sanctions against Iran and Russia, whose economies are "in tatters." Our former policy of Cuba was "long past its expiration date." "When you've been doin' the same thing for fifty years and it's not working it's time to make a change," he explained.
The President evoked the speech and appeal that brought him to the attention of the nation, saying he still believes we are not a red and blue America but one United States of America. He pledged his commitment to work together with Republicans on everything upon which they can can find common ground. "I still believe we are one people, that together we can do great things," he said. Of partisan bickering, he remarked, "Imagine if we broke out of these tired old patterns."
But he made clear he's through sitting around waiting for them to act. On Cuba, Iran, immigration, climate change and Guantanamo, for instance, he made it quite clear he will act where he can himself if congress won't work with him to craft bills he can sign. Not having to run another campaign has liberated Obama to take actions he feels are right regardless of politics. A humorous moment came when he began one paragraph, "I've run my last campaign..." At that, Republicans began to applaud. He shot them a bemused look, and continued, "I know because I won them both." The GOP fell silent as the Democrats roared.
He had a long list of policy plans, almost all of them liberal: affordable child care, equal pay for women, sick leave for all workers, free community college, generous student loan refinancing, massive infrastructure construction, medical research, net neutrality, tax reform to close loopholes and incentives to offshore jobs, increased tax child credits for the middle class, and minimum wage hikes, to name a few.
In foreign affairs he spoke often of using a range of techniques beyond military, though he wanted a use of force authorization from congress vs. ISIS, or ISIL. He pointed out the effectiveness of diplomacy and sanctions against Iran and Russia, whose economies are "in tatters." Our former policy of Cuba was "long past its expiration date." "When you've been doin' the same thing for fifty years and it's not working it's time to make a change," he explained.
The President evoked the speech and appeal that brought him to the attention of the nation, saying he still believes we are not a red and blue America but one United States of America. He pledged his commitment to work together with Republicans on everything upon which they can can find common ground. "I still believe we are one people, that together we can do great things," he said. Of partisan bickering, he remarked, "Imagine if we broke out of these tired old patterns."
But he made clear he's through sitting around waiting for them to act. On Cuba, Iran, immigration, climate change and Guantanamo, for instance, he made it quite clear he will act where he can himself if congress won't work with him to craft bills he can sign. Not having to run another campaign has liberated Obama to take actions he feels are right regardless of politics. A humorous moment came when he began one paragraph, "I've run my last campaign..." At that, Republicans began to applaud. He shot them a bemused look, and continued, "I know because I won them both." The GOP fell silent as the Democrats roared.
Friday, December 19, 2014
Recognition of Cuba!
The big news this week is President Obama's announcement that diplomatic relations will be restored with Cuba. See his full speech here. This move was long overdue, and it's a measure of Obama's pragmatism that he was the president to finally end an outmoded strategy that had stopped serving the interests of both the United States and the Cuban people decades ago. Further, it's another example of the president making good on his stated resolve to take all the steps he unilaterally can under his constitutional executive powers to make progress on solving any number of festering national problems.
After four years of futilely seeking common ground with the congressional Republican majority, it's ironic that GOP victory in the 2014 midterms has released Obama from political concerns and freed him to do what is right in the humanitarian and national interest. First came his groundbreaking agreement with China on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, next was his Executive Order on immigration enforcement, and now comes recognition of Cuba. That is something congress can do nothing about, though they alone can remove the economic sanctions still in place against the island nation.
The diplomatic recognition follows the formula laid out over 190 years ago in the Monroe Doctrine, that in dealing with foreign powers the United States will "consider the government de facto as the legitimate government for us..." Thus diplomatic recognition is not a "reward" bestowed on governments we approve of, it is a recognition of the facts of political life. It is also a bow to the reality that we can have no influence over a nation with which we have no relations. It is a childish notion indeed that we can hold our breath and stop speaking to a government and that they then will capitulate to all our wishes. It hasn't worked for 53 years, and dead-enders who want to continue the policy do so reflexively, with no serious way forward in prospect. Indeed, the history of our relations with the Soviet Union, Vietnam, China and others, give every indication that establishing relations with former adversaries and increasing their contacts with American people and commerce accelerate changes for the good in such closed societies.
The ability to keep nine exploratory sessions so secret with Cuba is a marvel in today's media climate, involving as they did not only the U.S. and Cuba but also the good offices of Canada and the Vatican. One wonders what other remarkable and long-needed initiatives the Obama Administration may have in store. I'm betting there are more, and that most of them will inspire apoplexy among congressional Republicans. That will make them all the more delightful.
After four years of futilely seeking common ground with the congressional Republican majority, it's ironic that GOP victory in the 2014 midterms has released Obama from political concerns and freed him to do what is right in the humanitarian and national interest. First came his groundbreaking agreement with China on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, next was his Executive Order on immigration enforcement, and now comes recognition of Cuba. That is something congress can do nothing about, though they alone can remove the economic sanctions still in place against the island nation.
The diplomatic recognition follows the formula laid out over 190 years ago in the Monroe Doctrine, that in dealing with foreign powers the United States will "consider the government de facto as the legitimate government for us..." Thus diplomatic recognition is not a "reward" bestowed on governments we approve of, it is a recognition of the facts of political life. It is also a bow to the reality that we can have no influence over a nation with which we have no relations. It is a childish notion indeed that we can hold our breath and stop speaking to a government and that they then will capitulate to all our wishes. It hasn't worked for 53 years, and dead-enders who want to continue the policy do so reflexively, with no serious way forward in prospect. Indeed, the history of our relations with the Soviet Union, Vietnam, China and others, give every indication that establishing relations with former adversaries and increasing their contacts with American people and commerce accelerate changes for the good in such closed societies.
The ability to keep nine exploratory sessions so secret with Cuba is a marvel in today's media climate, involving as they did not only the U.S. and Cuba but also the good offices of Canada and the Vatican. One wonders what other remarkable and long-needed initiatives the Obama Administration may have in store. I'm betting there are more, and that most of them will inspire apoplexy among congressional Republicans. That will make them all the more delightful.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Obama's Order on Immigration Coming Soon
I hope President Obama goes ahead and makes his executive order on immigration, and does it soon. The best indications are that it will be based on setting priorities for federal enforcement. Since there are not nearly enough Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers to round up all 11-12 million undocumented residents, there is considerable discretion in how to go about enforcing the rules on the books.
It appears the president's EO will set certain conditions as a very low priority for enforcement. These would include people who have U.S. citizen children or are living with other U.S. citizen family members, people who were brought here as very young children, those who have other close citizen relatives, and people who are working in occupations in which there is a shortage of U.S. citizen labor. There may be additional categories as well. Estimates are that these new directives will apply to about half the current 11-12 million people in the U.S. without papers. President Obama has previously singled out lawbreakers as the first priority for strict enforcement and deportation.
It is inhumane to tear parents away from children or send children who have known no other home to foreign countries. It is not helpful to our prosperity to dislocate workers who are employed and contributing to the national economy. It is destructive to businesses to deprive them of workers they are depending on.
Obama should not worry that conservative Nativists will scream. They always scream no matter what he does. The Gallup Poll says that Americans favor a path to citizenship for law-abiding undocumented immigrants by a margin of 88 to 12. The Senate already passed a bipartisan, comprehensive immigration plan back in June, 2013 by a 68-32 margin with 14 Republican votes. The Republican-controlled House has had a year and a half to do something. They ought to vote right away on the Senate proposal. Many Democrats are urging them to do that right now. Here is a letter from Sen. Barbara Boxer about it. But they are stuck between their business backers, who want the immigrant labor, and their prejudiced base, who hates immigrants. Consequently they fulminate and criticize, but do nothing.
The president should therefore act. He is right on humanitarian grounds. He is right on economic grounds. And he is definitely right on political grounds. If the Republicans do nothing he will have helped the country make its immigration policies more rational and humane. If the Republicans instead vote against him or find a way to block him, they will devastate their chances among Latino voters and drive them to the polls en masse for the 2016 elections and beyond. All they need do is ask California Republicans what happened here after Pete Wilson passed the anti-immigrant Proposition 187 in 1994. They haven't been competitive in the state since.
It appears the president's EO will set certain conditions as a very low priority for enforcement. These would include people who have U.S. citizen children or are living with other U.S. citizen family members, people who were brought here as very young children, those who have other close citizen relatives, and people who are working in occupations in which there is a shortage of U.S. citizen labor. There may be additional categories as well. Estimates are that these new directives will apply to about half the current 11-12 million people in the U.S. without papers. President Obama has previously singled out lawbreakers as the first priority for strict enforcement and deportation.
It is inhumane to tear parents away from children or send children who have known no other home to foreign countries. It is not helpful to our prosperity to dislocate workers who are employed and contributing to the national economy. It is destructive to businesses to deprive them of workers they are depending on.
Obama should not worry that conservative Nativists will scream. They always scream no matter what he does. The Gallup Poll says that Americans favor a path to citizenship for law-abiding undocumented immigrants by a margin of 88 to 12. The Senate already passed a bipartisan, comprehensive immigration plan back in June, 2013 by a 68-32 margin with 14 Republican votes. The Republican-controlled House has had a year and a half to do something. They ought to vote right away on the Senate proposal. Many Democrats are urging them to do that right now. Here is a letter from Sen. Barbara Boxer about it. But they are stuck between their business backers, who want the immigrant labor, and their prejudiced base, who hates immigrants. Consequently they fulminate and criticize, but do nothing.
The president should therefore act. He is right on humanitarian grounds. He is right on economic grounds. And he is definitely right on political grounds. If the Republicans do nothing he will have helped the country make its immigration policies more rational and humane. If the Republicans instead vote against him or find a way to block him, they will devastate their chances among Latino voters and drive them to the polls en masse for the 2016 elections and beyond. All they need do is ask California Republicans what happened here after Pete Wilson passed the anti-immigrant Proposition 187 in 1994. They haven't been competitive in the state since.
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
Obama Appearance on "Funny or Die."
The big news today is President Barack Obama's appearance on comedian Zach Galifianakis's mock interview program "Between Two Ferns" on the "Funny or Die" site. The President and the comic trade barbs, with Galifianakis of the "Hangover" movies adopting his customary slouching, passive-aggressive style and the Prez dishing it right back at him. The humorous six-and-a-half-minute spot has recorded six million hits in less than a day.
The President does have a message to deliver in the midst of the wit, and the viral nature of how the piece has taken off has confirmed the genius of choosing this medium to reach the young adult demographic.
See the video here, and prepare to laugh!
The President does have a message to deliver in the midst of the wit, and the viral nature of how the piece has taken off has confirmed the genius of choosing this medium to reach the young adult demographic.
See the video here, and prepare to laugh!
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
2014 State of the Union
Here are my early impressions on President Obama's fifth State of the Union Address. I'll try to be brief and to the point.
The president had three messages or impressions he wanted to get across, and I believe he did so successfully. The first was to be positive and inclusive. The second was to show Americans he gets their concerns, that he's on their side. The third is that he is going to act.
It's been a frustrating year for President Obama. Congress was only able to move on 3 of 41 goals he set out for them in the 2013 SOTU. They finally did pass a budget, and finally did raise the debt ceiling. The other was when the Senate changed its rules to permit up or down votes on executive appointments without allowing filibusters. Despite this, he did not want to appear petulant or angry about it; he wanted to show optimism. He did this well by starting with a list of good news items about economic improvement. He furthered the theme by saying he was eager to work with congress to solve the country's problems.
The President then showed he understood the nation's concerns about jobs and equity. His line about women's pay and comparing the situation to a Mad Men episode was one of the biggest applause lines of the night. He had a lot of good ideas for bettering children's education, job training, income inequality, exports, energy and the environment.
Finally, having established his goodwill and empathy, the President made it clear he would act. Though he had said he was eager to work with congress, he said "America doe not stand still," and he would take executive action "Whenever and wherever I can" to further the well being of the American people. For example, Obama said he would require all federal contractors to pay their workers a minimum wage of $10.10 an hour, whether congress agreed to make the standard nation wide for all workers or not. He had ideas on retirement accounts, gun safety and green projects too. Unfettered, the President must have made the Republicans squirm as they contemplated the prospect of his making unilateral steps to help the little guy which the GOP might not want to second, but which could make them look bad come election time this November.
It will be interesting to see what he can accomplish on his own the rest of the year. And just maybe, they might be able to forge some sort of a workable accord on immigration policy.
The president had three messages or impressions he wanted to get across, and I believe he did so successfully. The first was to be positive and inclusive. The second was to show Americans he gets their concerns, that he's on their side. The third is that he is going to act.
It's been a frustrating year for President Obama. Congress was only able to move on 3 of 41 goals he set out for them in the 2013 SOTU. They finally did pass a budget, and finally did raise the debt ceiling. The other was when the Senate changed its rules to permit up or down votes on executive appointments without allowing filibusters. Despite this, he did not want to appear petulant or angry about it; he wanted to show optimism. He did this well by starting with a list of good news items about economic improvement. He furthered the theme by saying he was eager to work with congress to solve the country's problems.
The President then showed he understood the nation's concerns about jobs and equity. His line about women's pay and comparing the situation to a Mad Men episode was one of the biggest applause lines of the night. He had a lot of good ideas for bettering children's education, job training, income inequality, exports, energy and the environment.
Finally, having established his goodwill and empathy, the President made it clear he would act. Though he had said he was eager to work with congress, he said "America doe not stand still," and he would take executive action "Whenever and wherever I can" to further the well being of the American people. For example, Obama said he would require all federal contractors to pay their workers a minimum wage of $10.10 an hour, whether congress agreed to make the standard nation wide for all workers or not. He had ideas on retirement accounts, gun safety and green projects too. Unfettered, the President must have made the Republicans squirm as they contemplated the prospect of his making unilateral steps to help the little guy which the GOP might not want to second, but which could make them look bad come election time this November.
It will be interesting to see what he can accomplish on his own the rest of the year. And just maybe, they might be able to forge some sort of a workable accord on immigration policy.
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Diplomatic Breakthrough with Iran?
The historic agreement just announced with the Islamic Republic of Iran is a good and necessary first step toward preventing that troublesome nation from acquring a nuclear weapon. The interim accord also represents perhaps a last chance to do so peacefully. The accord should be supported, because it preserves the prospect of beginning to restore a modicum of stability to the Middle East.
The six-month deal was announced between Iran and six powers, led by the United States. The other partners are Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany. Here are some of the most important terms Iran must adhere to: International inspectors will be able to visit Iran's facilities every day for the six months to monitor compliance. Iran will destroy the 20% enriched uranium it already has. It will accept limitations on producing more 3.5% enriched uranium. It will get rid of some of the advanced centrifuges it currently has, and will acquire no more new ones. It will not open its Arak heavy water reactor, potentially capable of producing plutonium. It will enter into good-faith negotiations for a permanent treaty during this six-month interim period. These terms are intended to take away Iran's present stockpile and then prevent it from retaining the ability to produce more fuel enriched to a level that makes the jump to nuclear weapon status feasible.
In exchange, the powers will relax their sanctions a bit, allowing some more sales of Iranian oil and permitting it to re-enter world markets to specified levels in auto parts, gold, and other precious metals. The easing of sanctions would net Iran about $7 billion in relief over the next six months. The sanctions are costing the Islamic Republic about $5 billion a month, so even with the interim agreement, they will still be penalized $23 billion of the $30 billion (over 76%) of the economic losses they faced before agreeing to the bargain.
The usual chorus of neoconservative critics attacked the agreement, claiming it lets Iran off the hook too easily. Senator Lindsey Graham called for harsher sanctions and no deal except Iran agrees to end all enrichment, even at the 3.5% level of purity which can legitimately be used for electrical power generation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a "bad deal." Senators McCain and Corker apparently are ready to begin bombing Iran any day now.
The problem with their line of thinking is that this represents a real opportunity to avoid war and begin bringing Iran back into the family of nations. If it fails or Iran reneges, the military option will still be there. With daily inspections Iran will not be able to produce a bomb in the next six months. President Obama has made it clear several times that Iran "Will not be permitted to acquire a nuclear weapon," and that "all options are on the table" to accomplish this. Iran knows full well what that means, and the sanctions Obama has initiated and gotten the other powers to accept have been extremely effective.
Why on earth shouldn't we try to resolve things peacefully first? If this works, the President will have gone a long way toward earning that Peace Prize he received early in his presidency. If not, we are likely headed for another war in the Middle East. And after what we have been through over the past 12 years, only a fool would prefer that as a first choice.
The six-month deal was announced between Iran and six powers, led by the United States. The other partners are Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany. Here are some of the most important terms Iran must adhere to: International inspectors will be able to visit Iran's facilities every day for the six months to monitor compliance. Iran will destroy the 20% enriched uranium it already has. It will accept limitations on producing more 3.5% enriched uranium. It will get rid of some of the advanced centrifuges it currently has, and will acquire no more new ones. It will not open its Arak heavy water reactor, potentially capable of producing plutonium. It will enter into good-faith negotiations for a permanent treaty during this six-month interim period. These terms are intended to take away Iran's present stockpile and then prevent it from retaining the ability to produce more fuel enriched to a level that makes the jump to nuclear weapon status feasible.
In exchange, the powers will relax their sanctions a bit, allowing some more sales of Iranian oil and permitting it to re-enter world markets to specified levels in auto parts, gold, and other precious metals. The easing of sanctions would net Iran about $7 billion in relief over the next six months. The sanctions are costing the Islamic Republic about $5 billion a month, so even with the interim agreement, they will still be penalized $23 billion of the $30 billion (over 76%) of the economic losses they faced before agreeing to the bargain.
The usual chorus of neoconservative critics attacked the agreement, claiming it lets Iran off the hook too easily. Senator Lindsey Graham called for harsher sanctions and no deal except Iran agrees to end all enrichment, even at the 3.5% level of purity which can legitimately be used for electrical power generation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a "bad deal." Senators McCain and Corker apparently are ready to begin bombing Iran any day now.
The problem with their line of thinking is that this represents a real opportunity to avoid war and begin bringing Iran back into the family of nations. If it fails or Iran reneges, the military option will still be there. With daily inspections Iran will not be able to produce a bomb in the next six months. President Obama has made it clear several times that Iran "Will not be permitted to acquire a nuclear weapon," and that "all options are on the table" to accomplish this. Iran knows full well what that means, and the sanctions Obama has initiated and gotten the other powers to accept have been extremely effective.
Why on earth shouldn't we try to resolve things peacefully first? If this works, the President will have gone a long way toward earning that Peace Prize he received early in his presidency. If not, we are likely headed for another war in the Middle East. And after what we have been through over the past 12 years, only a fool would prefer that as a first choice.
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
American People Not Fooled by Shutdown
The comprehensive NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll released on Thursday makes one thing quite clear: the American people are smarter than congressional Republicans think they are. More specifically, they squarely oppose the government shutdown, blame Republicans for it, and may well punish them at the polls next year as a result.
Spurred on by extreme ideologues like Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Mike Lee of Utah, and abetted by a GOP leadership under the baton of Speaker John Boehner who either knows better and was afraid to oppose the extremists or calculated the economy and credit of the United States was worth risking for a chance at political advantage, the House Republican caucus was talked into and threatened with primary opposition from Tea Party zealots to adopt a strategy of trying to force an end to the president's Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) by leveraging the specter of a government shutdown and even a default on the U.S debt if congressional Democrats and President Obama refused to go along with changes gutting their signature legislative achievement.
Despite presidential and Democratic congressional assurance that no such concessions in the face of threatened blackmail would be made, the strategy was employed. The GOP gambled that disaffection with the health law and the pain a shutdown would inflict on the country would combine with what international economists foresee as the likely devastation of the world financial system if America welches on its financial obligations to force Obama's hand.
Instead, Americans have seen through this transparently reckless gamble in which they, the citizens, are being used as pawns. The survey finds that by a 22-point margin, Americans blame Republicans for the shutdown. That 53-31 figure is twice as great as the 11-point (44-33) blame discrepancy the poll found in late 1995 when Republicans last engineered a shutdown, that time in an attempt to force concessions out of Bill Clinton. The public isn't buying GOP assurances that the strategy is not all that dangerous. By an enormous 46-point margin (73-27), the people consider it a very serious matter. That dwarfs the 16-point figure (57-41) by which voters in 1995 regarded the Gingrich-inspired shutdown of that day as serious. What is more, 31 percent say the shutdown has affected them personally, compared to only 18 percent last time.
As a result, since last month the Republican Party's favorability rating has dropped four points to 24%, the lowest ever recorded for a major American political party. Their unfavorability figure of 53% means that their popularity with the American people is upside down by a whopping 29%. By contrast, the Democratic Party is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 40%, a one-percent negative view to be sure, but 28 points better than their Republican counterparts. If congressional elections were held today, respondents give Democrats an 8 percent edge, 47-39, up from a 3 percent margin (46-43) last month. This would be enough to flip the majority in the House to Democratic control.
How has this affected the President? Remarkably, Obama's favorability/unfavorability has gone up since before the crisis. The survey measured a 5-percent deficit last month (45-50) which has turned into a 6-point endorsement (47-41) in October. His Affordable Care Act has gotten more popular too, as the gap between those supporting it and opposing it has fallen from 13 points last month (31-44) to only 5 points now (38-43.)
We must all hope, for the sake of the 800,000 people they have laid off, the millions whose needed services they have withheld, the thousands of businesses whose contracts they have interrupted and the potential damage they could do to interest rates and world financial markets, that the irresponsible ideologues driving the Republican train will come to their senses and bring an end to this sorry spectacle of political tantrum-throwing. In the meantime, at least it appears they have exposed their true nature to the American people, who have sat up, and with clear eyes, have taken notice.
Spurred on by extreme ideologues like Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Mike Lee of Utah, and abetted by a GOP leadership under the baton of Speaker John Boehner who either knows better and was afraid to oppose the extremists or calculated the economy and credit of the United States was worth risking for a chance at political advantage, the House Republican caucus was talked into and threatened with primary opposition from Tea Party zealots to adopt a strategy of trying to force an end to the president's Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) by leveraging the specter of a government shutdown and even a default on the U.S debt if congressional Democrats and President Obama refused to go along with changes gutting their signature legislative achievement.
Despite presidential and Democratic congressional assurance that no such concessions in the face of threatened blackmail would be made, the strategy was employed. The GOP gambled that disaffection with the health law and the pain a shutdown would inflict on the country would combine with what international economists foresee as the likely devastation of the world financial system if America welches on its financial obligations to force Obama's hand.
Instead, Americans have seen through this transparently reckless gamble in which they, the citizens, are being used as pawns. The survey finds that by a 22-point margin, Americans blame Republicans for the shutdown. That 53-31 figure is twice as great as the 11-point (44-33) blame discrepancy the poll found in late 1995 when Republicans last engineered a shutdown, that time in an attempt to force concessions out of Bill Clinton. The public isn't buying GOP assurances that the strategy is not all that dangerous. By an enormous 46-point margin (73-27), the people consider it a very serious matter. That dwarfs the 16-point figure (57-41) by which voters in 1995 regarded the Gingrich-inspired shutdown of that day as serious. What is more, 31 percent say the shutdown has affected them personally, compared to only 18 percent last time.
As a result, since last month the Republican Party's favorability rating has dropped four points to 24%, the lowest ever recorded for a major American political party. Their unfavorability figure of 53% means that their popularity with the American people is upside down by a whopping 29%. By contrast, the Democratic Party is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 40%, a one-percent negative view to be sure, but 28 points better than their Republican counterparts. If congressional elections were held today, respondents give Democrats an 8 percent edge, 47-39, up from a 3 percent margin (46-43) last month. This would be enough to flip the majority in the House to Democratic control.
How has this affected the President? Remarkably, Obama's favorability/unfavorability has gone up since before the crisis. The survey measured a 5-percent deficit last month (45-50) which has turned into a 6-point endorsement (47-41) in October. His Affordable Care Act has gotten more popular too, as the gap between those supporting it and opposing it has fallen from 13 points last month (31-44) to only 5 points now (38-43.)
We must all hope, for the sake of the 800,000 people they have laid off, the millions whose needed services they have withheld, the thousands of businesses whose contracts they have interrupted and the potential damage they could do to interest rates and world financial markets, that the irresponsible ideologues driving the Republican train will come to their senses and bring an end to this sorry spectacle of political tantrum-throwing. In the meantime, at least it appears they have exposed their true nature to the American people, who have sat up, and with clear eyes, have taken notice.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Obama Fifth SOTU A Mix of Old and New
In his fifth State of the Union Address last night, President Obama delivered a call for action on many fronts to attack the deficit, accelerate the economy, increase opportunity and deal with pressing social problems. Rather than soaring rhetoric, the address to Congress and a national audience constituted a workmanlike blueprint of effective policies backed by research or a history of what works. Many of the proposals offer innovative ideas that look promising. The principal exception to the President's businesslike delivery was a heartfelt and emotional appeal near the end of the speech for tighter gun control restrictions, which received excited support from many in the House Chamber. In a preview of the politics, the Address was interrupted 26 times by sustained applause. Of these, 15 times the legislators showed enthusiasm on both sides of the aisle, while on the other 11 only the Democrats rose. That indicates there is a good chance a fair number of things may well be enacted in some form. Here is what I consider most interesting in the Address.
On the deficit, the President's most interesting point to me was that two and a half trillion of the four trillion dollars sought over ten years for deficit reduction in the quest for a "grand bargain" has now already been agreed to. About one-third of that comes from higher tax rates on the well-to-do and two-thirds from cuts negotiated in previous deals. As always, President Obama staked out his position for a balance between new revenues and careful additional cuts to accomplish the rest. The coming "sequester" cuts would be completely irresponsible and would drag the economy back into recession because of all the layoffs they would produce. That's according to the White House and Congress' own economists. He made the case again that items like off shoring and outsourcing tax breaks and special write offs that benefit only the wealthy or a few should be eliminated before any cuts to middle and working class benefits like medicare and college loan programs. This is familiar ground. They key is to realize that with 62% of the original job done, the remainder may not seem so unreachable. The projected deficit for the current year is some $600 billion less than three years ago.
The President moved next into economic growth and jobs. I considered it highly important he made the point that deficit reduction does little to improve the economy or create jobs. Republicans continually conflate the two as though they are the same problem, and in order to win public opinion he cannot let them get away with that mischaracterization. He called for action on renewable energy (wind power has provided 50% of the new energy in recent years), and promised executive action if climate mitigation legislation was not forthcoming. He supported continuing an "all of the above" energy development strategy that has cut imports to a 40-year low and wants a program to insulate and otherwise cut energy wastage by 50%.
He wants a fix-it-now initiative to repair 10,000 bridges along with the power grid, and other infrastructure to provide jobs now, perform needed maintenance and serve business development needs. He pointed to housing recovery including a 50% gain in home purchases and called for expediting a bill currently in the hopper that would help people save $3,000 in refinancing at today's low interest rates. "Take a vote! Send me that bill! This is not partisan. I will sign it right away," he exhorted.
One of the most surprising, not to mention beneficial, economic ideas was to raise the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $9.00 an hour and index it to inflation. He would also like to rebuild the 20 hardest recession-hit communities, provide tax incentives for business to hire and remove incentives to outsource. Bad environments with few job prospects are breeding grounds for gangs, crime and hopelessness.
Another extremely intriguing idea are negotiations he will initiate to pursue a Transatlantic trade pact, perhaps a fre-trade zone. The U.S. and European Union combined are more than half the global economy. He's initiating negotiation on a Transpacific accord too. Yet dangers exist. He pointed to increasing cyber warfare threats and electronic penetration of manufacturing and banking systems. He wants congress to pass authorization for "greater capacity" to deal with this. I have read that our intelligence services believe a great deal of this activity is coming from China.
On education a striking proposal was to increase preschool availability from the current 30% to 100% of children. He said research shows every dollar so spent returns $7 over time to the economy, through higher graduation rates, lower crime and unwed pregnancy, and better earning power. He touted the example of P-Tech in Brooklyn which has program to earn not only a high school diploma but a community college Associate's Degree in computers or engineering upon graduation. He suggested a German model for vocational ed wherein students not on the college prep track come out of high school with a trade certificate. That sounds like an excellent idea to me.
Obama got nearly unanimous applause from the full house when he praised the bipartisan work done so far on comprehensive immigration reform and made the plea for passage in the next few months. This should, he made clear, include a reform of the legal immigration policy as well.
It was gratifying to see, given the egregious voter suppression efforts made in Republican-governed states in the recent election, he will be forming a nonpartisan commission on voting rights.
The conclusion, calling for sensible gun registration and restrictions, pointing to survivors and victims from Newtown, Aurora, Detroit, Milwaukee and Tucson including Gabby Giffords, brought down the house. It was a good finishing note and now the President will head out across the country to try to build support for his entire agenda.
On the deficit, the President's most interesting point to me was that two and a half trillion of the four trillion dollars sought over ten years for deficit reduction in the quest for a "grand bargain" has now already been agreed to. About one-third of that comes from higher tax rates on the well-to-do and two-thirds from cuts negotiated in previous deals. As always, President Obama staked out his position for a balance between new revenues and careful additional cuts to accomplish the rest. The coming "sequester" cuts would be completely irresponsible and would drag the economy back into recession because of all the layoffs they would produce. That's according to the White House and Congress' own economists. He made the case again that items like off shoring and outsourcing tax breaks and special write offs that benefit only the wealthy or a few should be eliminated before any cuts to middle and working class benefits like medicare and college loan programs. This is familiar ground. They key is to realize that with 62% of the original job done, the remainder may not seem so unreachable. The projected deficit for the current year is some $600 billion less than three years ago.
The President moved next into economic growth and jobs. I considered it highly important he made the point that deficit reduction does little to improve the economy or create jobs. Republicans continually conflate the two as though they are the same problem, and in order to win public opinion he cannot let them get away with that mischaracterization. He called for action on renewable energy (wind power has provided 50% of the new energy in recent years), and promised executive action if climate mitigation legislation was not forthcoming. He supported continuing an "all of the above" energy development strategy that has cut imports to a 40-year low and wants a program to insulate and otherwise cut energy wastage by 50%.
He wants a fix-it-now initiative to repair 10,000 bridges along with the power grid, and other infrastructure to provide jobs now, perform needed maintenance and serve business development needs. He pointed to housing recovery including a 50% gain in home purchases and called for expediting a bill currently in the hopper that would help people save $3,000 in refinancing at today's low interest rates. "Take a vote! Send me that bill! This is not partisan. I will sign it right away," he exhorted.
One of the most surprising, not to mention beneficial, economic ideas was to raise the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $9.00 an hour and index it to inflation. He would also like to rebuild the 20 hardest recession-hit communities, provide tax incentives for business to hire and remove incentives to outsource. Bad environments with few job prospects are breeding grounds for gangs, crime and hopelessness.
Another extremely intriguing idea are negotiations he will initiate to pursue a Transatlantic trade pact, perhaps a fre-trade zone. The U.S. and European Union combined are more than half the global economy. He's initiating negotiation on a Transpacific accord too. Yet dangers exist. He pointed to increasing cyber warfare threats and electronic penetration of manufacturing and banking systems. He wants congress to pass authorization for "greater capacity" to deal with this. I have read that our intelligence services believe a great deal of this activity is coming from China.
On education a striking proposal was to increase preschool availability from the current 30% to 100% of children. He said research shows every dollar so spent returns $7 over time to the economy, through higher graduation rates, lower crime and unwed pregnancy, and better earning power. He touted the example of P-Tech in Brooklyn which has program to earn not only a high school diploma but a community college Associate's Degree in computers or engineering upon graduation. He suggested a German model for vocational ed wherein students not on the college prep track come out of high school with a trade certificate. That sounds like an excellent idea to me.
Obama got nearly unanimous applause from the full house when he praised the bipartisan work done so far on comprehensive immigration reform and made the plea for passage in the next few months. This should, he made clear, include a reform of the legal immigration policy as well.
It was gratifying to see, given the egregious voter suppression efforts made in Republican-governed states in the recent election, he will be forming a nonpartisan commission on voting rights.
The conclusion, calling for sensible gun registration and restrictions, pointing to survivors and victims from Newtown, Aurora, Detroit, Milwaukee and Tucson including Gabby Giffords, brought down the house. It was a good finishing note and now the President will head out across the country to try to build support for his entire agenda.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Being There: The Presidential Inauguration of 2013
I got back home late Wednesday night from my trip back East for the Inauguration. I am indebted to my friends Greg and Lorene Guernsey for hosting me at their home and providing helpful driving directions and a friendly welcome. I also want to thank Rep. Devin Nunes and his D.C. office staff. He graciously provided a viewing ticket to the event. His legislative aides, Caitlin Shannon and Rocci DiCicco, kept me up to date on the deadlines and procedures and rendered most cordial and accommodating service the day before the Inauguration when I went to his office to pick up my ticket and materials.
I spent the rest of Sunday walking DC. I reconnoitered the route from the Metro station I would need to use to follow to the viewing area so I wouldn't get lost. The Washington Metro subway system is excellent and easy to negotiate, by the way. I particularly wanted to see the new monuments that had gone up since my last visit to the nation's capital. That was back in 1996 when Joan and I took our daughters Jeanette and Marie before Jeanette's eighth grade year. The three new ones for me were World War II, Martin Luther King and Franklin D. Roosevelt. I also spent some time at the Lincoln Memorial. All were well worth seeing, tastefully and impressively done. At the Martin Luther King Memorial I got to see Jesse Jackson, who was there for the King Holiday. The FDR Memorial was expansive and evocative of the many challenges he faced during his presidency.
I came away with a number of impressions of the Inauguration itself. First among these are the numbers. There were an estimated 900,000 to 1,000,000 in attendance, the biggest second inauguration crowd ever, though about half the number who came to President Obama's First in 2009. Despite the enormity of the crowd, the mood was cooperative and patient. The military and police presence was large and many streets were blocked off. It took a long time to get through the lines and security searches, yet the folks took it with a positive attitude. Everyone was bundled up; the temperature was in the twenties when we arrived, going up to a high of about 40. As might be expected, the African-American proportion of the crowd was large, probably about one-third in my section. Most everyone there was happy about the President's re-election, but there was a special pride among African-Americans. Many came with their whole families to be part of the historic moment.
I wound up north of center about 200 yards out at the top of a set of steps at roughly two o'clock from the President's view from the lectern. There were leafless trees partially obscuring a clear view, not to mention tall people. But I could get a more direct view by shifting my feet and craning my neck. Once at the viewing section people were crammed together very tightly. That was helpful in resisting the cold and potentially could have led to frayed tempers, but did not from what I saw. The prevailing spirit made for everyone to show consideration. It was a celebration, after all. For someone in attendance, much more than watching on television, the entertainment was important. The Brooklyn choir, James Taylor, Kelly Clarkson, Beyonce, and poet Richard Blanco were all sensationally good, as of course was the U.S. Marine Band. When you are standing there for so long it's most helpful to break up the speeches and dead time with art that accentuates the theme. They all came across as representative of the incredible talent of a great and vibrant nation. See a collage of the day's activities here.
The crowd enjoyed greeting the various dignitaries as they filed in. There were jumbo trons set up to get better views and even previews as they approached from within the Capitol Building's corridors. Senator and Mrs. Kerry, Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter, Joe and Jill Biden and Bill and Hillary Clinton evoked the greatest cheers from the crowd. The reception for Michelle, Malia and Sasha Obama was greater yet, and that for the President himself, accompanied by "Hail to the Chief," was loudest of all. After the benediction things proceeded rapidly to the swearings in. We heard the familiar voice of Vice President Biden repeating the oath administered by Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor. The devout Catholic Veep especially emphasized the last four words, "so help me God!" I turned on my phone's video recorder as Chief Justice John Roberts stepped forward. He then swore in President Obama, and as he finished the crowd roared. The army punctuated the moment with a thunderous 21-gun salute from a battery of cannon set up just to our left on the northwest lawn of the Capitol.
The Inaugural Address itself is harder to follow live than on television. Caught up with the crowd in the excitement of the moment, I more got impressions of the speech than a lot of hard content. It struck me as a rather forthright presentation of the President'' progressive values, centered on the pragmatic pursuit of justice and human service. By mentioning topics like climate change and gay rights within the larger contexts of community, freedom and justice the President came across as someone who will be unafraid in his second term to pursue what he believes. He called for action and stressed our mutual obligations to each other through programs such as Medicare and public education. He used the word "together" several times. He called for action, saying though there will always be disagreements about how best to meet our challenges, we must act now on them and make adjustments as required by developments. I felt he showed he will be vigorous and less likely to vainly wait for his political opponents to voluntarily accept reasonable compromises. I got the sense there will be more hardball with Congress in the second term. The crowd heartily approved. See President Obama's Inaugural Address as recorded by ABC News here.
Following the fine humanity and evocative imagery of Richrd Blanco's poem and Beyonce's tremendous rendition of the National Anthem the dignitaries recessed out and the throng slowly broke up and moved toward the transportation nubs. Like many, I meandered about, eating some trail mix and soaking in the festivities. I took some people's pictures in front of the Capitol and a nice young man took mine. The sense of community remained strong. Later on I was able to attend a reception put on by the Claremont McKenna College Alumni Association, my alma mater. There I enjoyed some stimulating conversation with alums working in Washington, such as Steve Dagadakis, a staffer with the House Democratic Caucus. It was the cap of a magnificent day.
The next day I took a two-hour drive into central Virginia and visited Monticello, home of our third president, Thomas Jefferson, and Ash Lawn-Highland, home of his neighbor our fifth president, James Monroe. It was a most fitting and satisfying end to my trip to see the way of life of two of our most important founders. Enjoying our capital city, being present for a memorable Inauguration and getting in touch with some meaningful history was a wonderful experience. I felt proud to be a citizen.
I spent the rest of Sunday walking DC. I reconnoitered the route from the Metro station I would need to use to follow to the viewing area so I wouldn't get lost. The Washington Metro subway system is excellent and easy to negotiate, by the way. I particularly wanted to see the new monuments that had gone up since my last visit to the nation's capital. That was back in 1996 when Joan and I took our daughters Jeanette and Marie before Jeanette's eighth grade year. The three new ones for me were World War II, Martin Luther King and Franklin D. Roosevelt. I also spent some time at the Lincoln Memorial. All were well worth seeing, tastefully and impressively done. At the Martin Luther King Memorial I got to see Jesse Jackson, who was there for the King Holiday. The FDR Memorial was expansive and evocative of the many challenges he faced during his presidency.
I came away with a number of impressions of the Inauguration itself. First among these are the numbers. There were an estimated 900,000 to 1,000,000 in attendance, the biggest second inauguration crowd ever, though about half the number who came to President Obama's First in 2009. Despite the enormity of the crowd, the mood was cooperative and patient. The military and police presence was large and many streets were blocked off. It took a long time to get through the lines and security searches, yet the folks took it with a positive attitude. Everyone was bundled up; the temperature was in the twenties when we arrived, going up to a high of about 40. As might be expected, the African-American proportion of the crowd was large, probably about one-third in my section. Most everyone there was happy about the President's re-election, but there was a special pride among African-Americans. Many came with their whole families to be part of the historic moment.
I wound up north of center about 200 yards out at the top of a set of steps at roughly two o'clock from the President's view from the lectern. There were leafless trees partially obscuring a clear view, not to mention tall people. But I could get a more direct view by shifting my feet and craning my neck. Once at the viewing section people were crammed together very tightly. That was helpful in resisting the cold and potentially could have led to frayed tempers, but did not from what I saw. The prevailing spirit made for everyone to show consideration. It was a celebration, after all. For someone in attendance, much more than watching on television, the entertainment was important. The Brooklyn choir, James Taylor, Kelly Clarkson, Beyonce, and poet Richard Blanco were all sensationally good, as of course was the U.S. Marine Band. When you are standing there for so long it's most helpful to break up the speeches and dead time with art that accentuates the theme. They all came across as representative of the incredible talent of a great and vibrant nation. See a collage of the day's activities here.
The crowd enjoyed greeting the various dignitaries as they filed in. There were jumbo trons set up to get better views and even previews as they approached from within the Capitol Building's corridors. Senator and Mrs. Kerry, Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter, Joe and Jill Biden and Bill and Hillary Clinton evoked the greatest cheers from the crowd. The reception for Michelle, Malia and Sasha Obama was greater yet, and that for the President himself, accompanied by "Hail to the Chief," was loudest of all. After the benediction things proceeded rapidly to the swearings in. We heard the familiar voice of Vice President Biden repeating the oath administered by Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor. The devout Catholic Veep especially emphasized the last four words, "so help me God!" I turned on my phone's video recorder as Chief Justice John Roberts stepped forward. He then swore in President Obama, and as he finished the crowd roared. The army punctuated the moment with a thunderous 21-gun salute from a battery of cannon set up just to our left on the northwest lawn of the Capitol.
The Inaugural Address itself is harder to follow live than on television. Caught up with the crowd in the excitement of the moment, I more got impressions of the speech than a lot of hard content. It struck me as a rather forthright presentation of the President'' progressive values, centered on the pragmatic pursuit of justice and human service. By mentioning topics like climate change and gay rights within the larger contexts of community, freedom and justice the President came across as someone who will be unafraid in his second term to pursue what he believes. He called for action and stressed our mutual obligations to each other through programs such as Medicare and public education. He used the word "together" several times. He called for action, saying though there will always be disagreements about how best to meet our challenges, we must act now on them and make adjustments as required by developments. I felt he showed he will be vigorous and less likely to vainly wait for his political opponents to voluntarily accept reasonable compromises. I got the sense there will be more hardball with Congress in the second term. The crowd heartily approved. See President Obama's Inaugural Address as recorded by ABC News here.
Following the fine humanity and evocative imagery of Richrd Blanco's poem and Beyonce's tremendous rendition of the National Anthem the dignitaries recessed out and the throng slowly broke up and moved toward the transportation nubs. Like many, I meandered about, eating some trail mix and soaking in the festivities. I took some people's pictures in front of the Capitol and a nice young man took mine. The sense of community remained strong. Later on I was able to attend a reception put on by the Claremont McKenna College Alumni Association, my alma mater. There I enjoyed some stimulating conversation with alums working in Washington, such as Steve Dagadakis, a staffer with the House Democratic Caucus. It was the cap of a magnificent day.
The next day I took a two-hour drive into central Virginia and visited Monticello, home of our third president, Thomas Jefferson, and Ash Lawn-Highland, home of his neighbor our fifth president, James Monroe. It was a most fitting and satisfying end to my trip to see the way of life of two of our most important founders. Enjoying our capital city, being present for a memorable Inauguration and getting in touch with some meaningful history was a wonderful experience. I felt proud to be a citizen.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Obama Opens Fight for Sensible Gun Controls
This morning President Obama, declaring, "This is our first task in society: keeping our children safe" signed executive orders putting 23 directives on gun-related issues into effect and called on congress to take action on seven others. See his presentation here. Extensive public opinion surveys by two highly-regarded organizations, Pew Research and the ABC News/Washington Post Poll, indicate a strong majority of Americans support him. In accepting Vice President Biden's recommendations for gun safety in the wake of the Newtown, Connecticut Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre, the President vowed to "use whatever power this office has" to fight for passage of his agenda, and called on Americans to communicate their support to their representatives. We will now see to what extent the will of the majority can prevail on an issue against a determined minority backed by the organized money of one of Capitol Hill's most powerful lobbies.
Among the items included in the 23 presidential directives are instructions to law enforcement to share felony and background check information with other jurisdictions and gun dealers, to help school districts that so desire to hire additional "resource specialists" and to make it easier for mental health providers to warn of dangerous individuals. He is also directing the Center for Disease Control to research the causes of murderous behavior, including violent video games.
Among the items the President wants from congress are:
Money to implement the research and the other measures, about $500 million. Require a universal background check for anyone buying a gun, thereby closing the gun show, online and personal sale loopholes. A ban on military-style assault weapons. Limiting an ammunition magazine to ten rounds. Severely increase the penalties for those who flout the requirements or who buy weapons to provide them to criminals. Confirm Acting Director Todd Jones as Director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, a position congress has refused to fill for six years. Provide funds and a program to help localities hire more police.
According to the ABC News/Washington Post Poll and the Pew Research Survey the people are with the President on his ideas, often overwhelmingly so. Universal background checks are favored by an average of 85% in the two surveys. 76% support background checks on even ammo purchases in the ABC Poll. An average of 69% are for a federal gun database. Banning assault weapons is favored by a margin of 17%, and banning the high capacity magazines is favored by an average of 22% in the two surveys.
President Obama described the effort saying, "We can respect the Second Amendment while keeping guns out of the hands of an irresponsible few." Emphasizing "It's time to do the right thing," he pointed out that action is urgent because, "In the month since Sandy Hook 900 more Americans have died at the end of a gun." He granted that "no law" can prevent all violence but, referring to children who had written him on the stage with him, to survivors and parents of victims in the audience, held that "if even one child's life is saved" that we must act.
The President is under no illusion the task will be easy. He called on the membership of gun rights organizations to call on their leaders to support these sensible steps, and on Americans in general to communicate their support to their representatives. "The only way we can change is if the American people demand it. They have to say, enough!" he said. He recommended finding out if your congressional representative is for background checks and limiting assault weapons. If not, "Ask them why not. What's more important, getting an A grade from the gun lobby and money for their campaign, or giving parents some peace of mind when they drop their children off for first grade?"
Among the items included in the 23 presidential directives are instructions to law enforcement to share felony and background check information with other jurisdictions and gun dealers, to help school districts that so desire to hire additional "resource specialists" and to make it easier for mental health providers to warn of dangerous individuals. He is also directing the Center for Disease Control to research the causes of murderous behavior, including violent video games.
Among the items the President wants from congress are:
Money to implement the research and the other measures, about $500 million. Require a universal background check for anyone buying a gun, thereby closing the gun show, online and personal sale loopholes. A ban on military-style assault weapons. Limiting an ammunition magazine to ten rounds. Severely increase the penalties for those who flout the requirements or who buy weapons to provide them to criminals. Confirm Acting Director Todd Jones as Director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, a position congress has refused to fill for six years. Provide funds and a program to help localities hire more police.
According to the ABC News/Washington Post Poll and the Pew Research Survey the people are with the President on his ideas, often overwhelmingly so. Universal background checks are favored by an average of 85% in the two surveys. 76% support background checks on even ammo purchases in the ABC Poll. An average of 69% are for a federal gun database. Banning assault weapons is favored by a margin of 17%, and banning the high capacity magazines is favored by an average of 22% in the two surveys.
President Obama described the effort saying, "We can respect the Second Amendment while keeping guns out of the hands of an irresponsible few." Emphasizing "It's time to do the right thing," he pointed out that action is urgent because, "In the month since Sandy Hook 900 more Americans have died at the end of a gun." He granted that "no law" can prevent all violence but, referring to children who had written him on the stage with him, to survivors and parents of victims in the audience, held that "if even one child's life is saved" that we must act.
The President is under no illusion the task will be easy. He called on the membership of gun rights organizations to call on their leaders to support these sensible steps, and on Americans in general to communicate their support to their representatives. "The only way we can change is if the American people demand it. They have to say, enough!" he said. He recommended finding out if your congressional representative is for background checks and limiting assault weapons. If not, "Ask them why not. What's more important, getting an A grade from the gun lobby and money for their campaign, or giving parents some peace of mind when they drop their children off for first grade?"
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Going to the Inauguration
Today I began firming up my arrangements to attend President Obama's Second Inaugural in Washington, D.C. It will be held Monday January 21, 2013--appropriately enough, it will be Martin Luther King Day. I'm excited to be able to go and be part of this quadrennial rite of American democracy.
The first thing I did was call a friend in Northern Virginia to see about staying over for a few days. I've known Greg Guernsey since high school. He and wife Lorene said they would be happy to take me in. With that in hand I went ahead and booked the flight. I used Delta Skymiles to get one out of Fresno to Dulles with stops in Salt Lake and Detroit. The return trip will go through Cincinnati and Salt Lake back to Fresno. I also got a rental car and bought a special Inaugural commemorative D.C. Metrorail pass good for unlimited transportation on the subway and bus system for the day.
I'm travelling in on Saturday the 19th and flying out on Wednesday the 23rd. That ought to give me time to perhaps do a little tourist visiting on Sunday and Tuesday. There are myriad historical and other points of interest in the vicinity and it's been since 1997 that Joan and I took the kids to the area. I'll need to do a little research and see what looks both interesting and manageable.
One thing I'm waiting on is a call from my congressman's office. I phoned them last week to get on a list for a ticket for seating at the ceremony at the Capitol steps. Every national legislator gets some tickets so I thought I'd give it a try. Chances are I'll just be standing with the other thousands farther back along the mall, but since Rep. Devin Nunes is a Republican I'm hoping there won't be too many of his regular supporters who want to go and maybe I'll get lucky! They did say they could assure me of getting a ticket for a Capitol tour.
I'll be posting on this now and then as developments go forward. I've been a big Obama supporter so it's particularly meaningful for me to attend what will be my first time at an Inaugural. For that matter, there's every good chance it will be my only time. And that being the case, who better to see than the nation's first minority president being sworn in as the re-elected incumbent?
The first thing I did was call a friend in Northern Virginia to see about staying over for a few days. I've known Greg Guernsey since high school. He and wife Lorene said they would be happy to take me in. With that in hand I went ahead and booked the flight. I used Delta Skymiles to get one out of Fresno to Dulles with stops in Salt Lake and Detroit. The return trip will go through Cincinnati and Salt Lake back to Fresno. I also got a rental car and bought a special Inaugural commemorative D.C. Metrorail pass good for unlimited transportation on the subway and bus system for the day.
I'm travelling in on Saturday the 19th and flying out on Wednesday the 23rd. That ought to give me time to perhaps do a little tourist visiting on Sunday and Tuesday. There are myriad historical and other points of interest in the vicinity and it's been since 1997 that Joan and I took the kids to the area. I'll need to do a little research and see what looks both interesting and manageable.
One thing I'm waiting on is a call from my congressman's office. I phoned them last week to get on a list for a ticket for seating at the ceremony at the Capitol steps. Every national legislator gets some tickets so I thought I'd give it a try. Chances are I'll just be standing with the other thousands farther back along the mall, but since Rep. Devin Nunes is a Republican I'm hoping there won't be too many of his regular supporters who want to go and maybe I'll get lucky! They did say they could assure me of getting a ticket for a Capitol tour.
I'll be posting on this now and then as developments go forward. I've been a big Obama supporter so it's particularly meaningful for me to attend what will be my first time at an Inaugural. For that matter, there's every good chance it will be my only time. And that being the case, who better to see than the nation's first minority president being sworn in as the re-elected incumbent?
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Election Race Analysis: 9 Days Out
Here's the promised "horse race" analysis 9 days before the election. The fallout from the three presidential and one vice presidential debates has had its effect and the race has stabilized into its final contours. In a nutshell, President Obama retains has the electoral college advantage and the inside track for re-election, but Mitt Romney remains close and still has a reasonable chance to win.
We start with the states where one candidate has a big and likely insurmountable lead. For Obama that's 18 states and the District of Columbia for 237 electoral votes (EVs). Romney has 23 states worth 191 EVs securely in his column. That leaves 9 states worth 110 EVs still up for grabs. With 538 total EVs at stake, it takes 270 to win the White House. So Obama needs 33 of those still-to-be-won 110 EVs while Romney would need 79 of them. You can easily see that is a steeper hill for the challenger. So let's look more closely at those remaining nine states.
Three of the tossup states are leaning fairly strongly to one side. These are North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin. Recent polls give Romney a consistent 3.8% average margin in the race for North Carolina's 15 EVs. Obama has twin 2.3% leads in Wisconsin (10 EV) and Nevada (6), and observers rate the Obama turnout operations strong in those states as well. So let's put these three states in their respective columns. That brings Obama to 253 and Romney to 206.
That leaves us, barring major unforeseen news developments or surprising statewide election upsets, with 6 states totalling 79 EVs that will decide the next president. Obama needs 17 EVs out of this group and Romney needs 64. From most to least EVs they are:
Florida, 29 EV. Romney has to have Florida. If Obama wins the Sunshine State it's game over. Recent polls give Romney an average of a 1.8% edge. It was nip and tuck until the first debate, after which Romney took the small lead he still holds. The subsequent debates stalled Romney's surge, but Obama has not been able to reverse it. It's still close but Florida is a big state, and the bigger they are the harder they are to turn around. Romney has a pretty strong chance to win here, probably over 60%.
Ohio, 18 EV. Romney has to have Ohio, too. But it doesn't look good for him. Obama holds a 1.9% average lead in the state both campaigns are visiting the most and spending more money in than any other. The Buckeye State is Obama's firewall. As long as he stays ahead here he is assured of victory. That's why both sides will spare no expense or effort in Ohio in the last nine days. Watch this call closely on Election Night, because it may tell the story early.
Virginia, 13 EV. Obama had a narrow lead until the first debate, when Romney went ahead. Since then it has been moving back Obama's way. The average of recent polls shows Virginia as a dead even tie, though two of three recent polls give Obama the edge. Expect this one to linger a long time before the networks call it on Election Night. It's the Washington, D.C. suburbs in the Northern part of Virginia for the President against the more conservative Southern part of the Old Dominion for the GOP. If Obama loses Ohio this is his next best line of defense. If Romney takes Florida and Ohio, a win here starts to make his chances for the presidency look good.
Colorado, 9 EV. Like Virginia, the latest polling average finds Colorado as a dead heat. Also like Virginia, it's a state where Obama had a pre-debate advantage, Romney reversed that, and now it's back to even. The most recent surveys are going Obama's way.
Iowa, 6 EV. Obama is up 2.3% in recent poll averages, and the latest surveys continue to show a narrow Obama lead.
New Hampshire, 4 EV. The average has Obama in the lead by only 1.4% in a small state, so that's not many people. The latest polls are on both sides, too, some showing Romney ahead and others Obama. This one could really go either way.
To sum up, Obama wins if he takes Florida or Ohio. He can also win by prevailing in Virginia and any one of the smaller states of Colorado, Iowa or Hew Hampshire. If Romney were to take Florida, Ohio and Virginia, Obama would have to win all three of the smaller states to hold his job. To sum it all up statistically, as it currently stands Obama has better than a 70% likelihood of winning the election, and Romney a little less than 30%.
For a look at some good sources, go to the FiveThirtyEight or Real Clear Politics web sites.
We start with the states where one candidate has a big and likely insurmountable lead. For Obama that's 18 states and the District of Columbia for 237 electoral votes (EVs). Romney has 23 states worth 191 EVs securely in his column. That leaves 9 states worth 110 EVs still up for grabs. With 538 total EVs at stake, it takes 270 to win the White House. So Obama needs 33 of those still-to-be-won 110 EVs while Romney would need 79 of them. You can easily see that is a steeper hill for the challenger. So let's look more closely at those remaining nine states.
Three of the tossup states are leaning fairly strongly to one side. These are North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin. Recent polls give Romney a consistent 3.8% average margin in the race for North Carolina's 15 EVs. Obama has twin 2.3% leads in Wisconsin (10 EV) and Nevada (6), and observers rate the Obama turnout operations strong in those states as well. So let's put these three states in their respective columns. That brings Obama to 253 and Romney to 206.
That leaves us, barring major unforeseen news developments or surprising statewide election upsets, with 6 states totalling 79 EVs that will decide the next president. Obama needs 17 EVs out of this group and Romney needs 64. From most to least EVs they are:
Florida, 29 EV. Romney has to have Florida. If Obama wins the Sunshine State it's game over. Recent polls give Romney an average of a 1.8% edge. It was nip and tuck until the first debate, after which Romney took the small lead he still holds. The subsequent debates stalled Romney's surge, but Obama has not been able to reverse it. It's still close but Florida is a big state, and the bigger they are the harder they are to turn around. Romney has a pretty strong chance to win here, probably over 60%.
Ohio, 18 EV. Romney has to have Ohio, too. But it doesn't look good for him. Obama holds a 1.9% average lead in the state both campaigns are visiting the most and spending more money in than any other. The Buckeye State is Obama's firewall. As long as he stays ahead here he is assured of victory. That's why both sides will spare no expense or effort in Ohio in the last nine days. Watch this call closely on Election Night, because it may tell the story early.
Virginia, 13 EV. Obama had a narrow lead until the first debate, when Romney went ahead. Since then it has been moving back Obama's way. The average of recent polls shows Virginia as a dead even tie, though two of three recent polls give Obama the edge. Expect this one to linger a long time before the networks call it on Election Night. It's the Washington, D.C. suburbs in the Northern part of Virginia for the President against the more conservative Southern part of the Old Dominion for the GOP. If Obama loses Ohio this is his next best line of defense. If Romney takes Florida and Ohio, a win here starts to make his chances for the presidency look good.
Colorado, 9 EV. Like Virginia, the latest polling average finds Colorado as a dead heat. Also like Virginia, it's a state where Obama had a pre-debate advantage, Romney reversed that, and now it's back to even. The most recent surveys are going Obama's way.
Iowa, 6 EV. Obama is up 2.3% in recent poll averages, and the latest surveys continue to show a narrow Obama lead.
New Hampshire, 4 EV. The average has Obama in the lead by only 1.4% in a small state, so that's not many people. The latest polls are on both sides, too, some showing Romney ahead and others Obama. This one could really go either way.
To sum up, Obama wins if he takes Florida or Ohio. He can also win by prevailing in Virginia and any one of the smaller states of Colorado, Iowa or Hew Hampshire. If Romney were to take Florida, Ohio and Virginia, Obama would have to win all three of the smaller states to hold his job. To sum it all up statistically, as it currently stands Obama has better than a 70% likelihood of winning the election, and Romney a little less than 30%.
For a look at some good sources, go to the FiveThirtyEight or Real Clear Politics web sites.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
The End Game Begins
President Obama emerged as the clear winner in the third debate last night. A synopsis of polls taken after the foreign policy discussion found the president besting the challenger by as much as a margin of 30 points, 53% to 23%. Obama was very much the seasoned commander in chief while Romney was strangely passive, agreeing with the President on the substance of important policies time and again. Though strong performances in the second and third debates appear to have blunted the momentum Mitt Romney gained after the first debate, there is little evidence this latest face-off changed many votes.
The Obama camp was apparently thinking along the same lines as my Saturday blog, "What Obama Needs to Do," for as both men opened tours of battleground states, Obama unveiled his own 5-point economic plan on the campaign trail today. Titled "A Plan for Jobs & Middle Class Security" the "glossy new 20-page magazine" lays out a directly competing blueprint to Romney's. The five points are education and training, manufacturing, energy, the deficit and "ending the war in Afghanistan to do some nation building here at home." Click on the last link to examine the program in detail or see the President's latest 60-second ad introducing the initiative.
The economic plan contains focused versions of proposals Obama has already been advocating for some time. What is novel (and more effective) is putting them together in a concise and pithy way in the manner Romney has done with his own plan. Having this ready and printed with ads already recorded clearly shows the campaign had been planning this roll out to coincide with the end of the debates. The timing for this to come out now, at this late date just two weeks before the election, can only be seen as intentional and carefully considered. This was unquestionably the right thing to do.
I'll get back to you with a "horse race" analysis piece at the end of the week once new tracking polls have digested the impact of the debate, the Obama economic roll out and the beginning of the two sides' closing appeals.
The Obama camp was apparently thinking along the same lines as my Saturday blog, "What Obama Needs to Do," for as both men opened tours of battleground states, Obama unveiled his own 5-point economic plan on the campaign trail today. Titled "A Plan for Jobs & Middle Class Security" the "glossy new 20-page magazine" lays out a directly competing blueprint to Romney's. The five points are education and training, manufacturing, energy, the deficit and "ending the war in Afghanistan to do some nation building here at home." Click on the last link to examine the program in detail or see the President's latest 60-second ad introducing the initiative.
The economic plan contains focused versions of proposals Obama has already been advocating for some time. What is novel (and more effective) is putting them together in a concise and pithy way in the manner Romney has done with his own plan. Having this ready and printed with ads already recorded clearly shows the campaign had been planning this roll out to coincide with the end of the debates. The timing for this to come out now, at this late date just two weeks before the election, can only be seen as intentional and carefully considered. This was unquestionably the right thing to do.
I'll get back to you with a "horse race" analysis piece at the end of the week once new tracking polls have digested the impact of the debate, the Obama economic roll out and the beginning of the two sides' closing appeals.
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