I feel there is a real path to the nomination for Sanders, who is almost certainly too far left for the general electorate. But thwart him with process and we alienate our future base. If Bloomberg comes in and takes it away from him the Berniecrats, who hate billionaires as it is, will, I suspect, be unforgiving and a lot of them will sit it out. See Michelle Goldberg's view in the New York Times.
There’s no doubt Biden’s lost a couple of steps. He’s a good man, knows every leader in the world on a first name basis, has worlds of experience and is progressive enough. But his ability to contend with Trump has to be seriously questioned. He’s not inspiring a lot of confidence. He’ll likely not do so well in NH. He should do well in NV and should win SC big. If he’s weak in those also, his campaign will evaporate.
Warren is my personal favorite. I don’t see her in the top echelon in any polls anymore though. Klobuchar is looking better all the time but is unlikely to win the nomination. She could be a good running mate. Steyer, Yang, are going nowhere. The rest like Bennet, Patrick, can’t even qualify for the debate stage, are becoming jokes and should drop out.
That leaves Buttigieg. He’s running strong now, has put all his eggs in IO and NH and is strong there. He polls weak in the rest of the country though as of yet. But a win in NH could give him momentum, on top of his strong showing in Iowa. Pete is very smart and well spoken, a Rhodes Scholar. He has the veteran resume Trump doesn’t. He’s really good at throwing out platitudes in ways that relate well to millennials. If Biden implodes Pete might become the moderate alternative to Bernie. Blacks are famously skeptical of him, though, and of course he’s gay, has no high level experience past the city level and is only 38.
So that’s how I’m seeing the race. So how do we beat Trump? With Trump, youth, minorities and women. Theoretically he’s beatable. There’s almost no middle ground in this election. People love him or hate him. It’s going to be a turnout election. After 2016 there’s been great energy on the Democratic side. In 2017 they blew out the GOP in Virginia, gaining 50 seats and flipping the state legislature. In 2018 Dems flipped 40 congressional seats, including 4 in PA, 2 in Michigan, a couple in WI, FL, NC, the critical swing states Dems must win. Since 2016 Dems have gained 7 governorships, 40 House seats and over 300 state legislative seats. How? Running on health care, gun safety, and decency. Women and minorities find Trump repugnant. That’s not surprising; he’s done everything he can to insult them. Clinton won women by 13; current polling finds Trump losing them by 32, no typo.
The economy, incumbency, Republican voter suppression, and all Trump’s brilliance at reaching the rural and working class white voter, especially men, and the configuration of the electoral college all work in Trump’s favor and still make him the favorite, in my view. But he’s potentially beatable if we can hold our voters together and get them out to vote, regardless of who our nominee is, if the process is seen as fair and our losing candidates all endorse and fight for the nominee. At any rate, that’s got to be the strategy and that’s the outline of our best hope to unseat the evil one, in my view.
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