1. Yes, Putin was emboldened by previous moves at little international cost. The sanctions after Crimea at least became consequential, but they are not disabling.
2. No, World War III has not started already. One country is battling another. No other combatants are directly involved. That is not a World War. Whether it becomes a world war depends on what we, Putin, and others do next.
3. Yes, we and our allies must continue to arm Ukraine. It ends the policy of appeasement and makes clear from now on that the price of aggression will be high. It signals to countries facing Russian or other intimidation that we will help them, and makes it more likely they will stand up to coercion. It multiplies the cost to Putin and makes him the aggressor if he goes beyond the boundaries of Ukraine to try to staunch the replenishment by widening the war into Poland or Romania. By not immediately intervening to take out these deliveries it is Putin who has emboldened us to continue supplying Ukraine, just as we emboldened him by weak responses to his earlier aggressions. Now if he retaliates directly against us or our NATO allies on NATO territory he would be the one escalating, and would initiate World War III. He's already having trouble bludgeoning Ukraine into line, so imagine his problems if he added Germany, Poland, Romania, the USA and the rest of the NATO Treaty signatories to his active enemies. That's why he hasn't done it. He believes the NATO Charter would be followed by its member nations. He knows that's a fight he can't win. The only way he could stop us all would be nuclear. But he knows if he uses that, he dies too. Again, he indicates he is a rational actor because he has not activated the NATO Alliance, which would insure his conventional defeat, or used nuclear weapons, which would be suicidal.
4. No, we do not need to send ground troops into Ukraine or send our air forces over their skies to "enforce a no-fly zone." If we do that we become active belligerents, and we start World War III. A no-fly zone means our planes are there to shoot down the planes of any other power that enters that airspace. That means direct aerial combat with the Russian Air Force, because they are already there. It's an unmistakable act of war. No country currently engaged in combat could ever permit the withdrawal of air support for their ground forces currently engaged in life and death combat. The logic of operations would necessitate their striking NATO air bases in NATO territory and we then striking Russian air bases inside Russia. The air defenses of their ground forces would strike at our planes overhead to defend their planes, and our planes in turn would have to target Russian ground forces shooting at them. Before you know it, every American is shooting at every Russian, and vice versa, and it's World War III.
5. Yes, we ought to embargo Russian oil. We should let them know through confidential channels before hand that it's coming (which they can already see by watching the Western news) and let them know it ends when they withdraw. We should also let them know we will play that card any time they invade anybody, including neutrals such as Finland and Sweden. This is yet another case, in addition to the intensifying climate crisis, which clearly demonstrates the urgent need to direct our energy consumption away from oil and other fossil fuels as rapidly as possible.
6. It may well be that China stands as the likely diplomatic key to ending the Russia-Ukraine War. That's probably not what the USA wants to happen though, as doing so would greatly raise China's profile and prestige in the world. But as long as Putin feels he has Chinese support he may be willing to keep paying the costs to pursue his dream of reconstituting the glories of the Russian Empire, pouring more men and material into what looks to be Russia's equivalent of Vietnam. But if the Chinese were to let him know they could not continue to back his folly, he might have to realize the game was up and accept their mediation and some at least implicitly face-saving diplomatic solution. In this case, one wonders what price China would extract from both Russia and the West for their good offices.
No comments:
Post a Comment