A very interesting Monmouth poll has come out. Monmouth has a good reputation for accuracy.
Pertinent facts:
1. Democratic voters substantially prefer someone who can beat Trump to someone who shares their ideological perspectives, and by a much larger margin than usual. Dems are apparently united in focusing on beating Trump and more likely to coalesce strongly around the eventual nominee than in the average election year.
2. Trump is wildly unpopular. He would lose an election today by 19 points.
Analysis:
The election is still more than 19 months away. Only the ignorant would make firm predictions this far out. Still, the upcoming election is eminently winnable. These indicators are a lot more promising than if Democrats were rock-hard in their insistence to have their ideological mirror be the nominee or else, and if Trump were already ahead by 19 points.
Certainly, many new events will transpire and we can count on Trump to make use of his full bag of tricks. The Democrats or their nominee's campaign could seriously bungle things. But so could the GOP. For example, Trump's introduction of a budget that slashes Medicare and Social Security plays right into the hands of the Democrats; it's the principal issue they rode to gaining forty seats in the House just four months ago. This is already scheduled to play prominently in their 2020 ads.
So we'll see what happens, and anything still could. But the terrain is promising at this point. Check out the poll here:
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