Democrats should take heart at the first comprehensive analysis of the 2016 presidential race by election prognosticator par excellence Nate Silver: Hillary Clinton has about an 80% chance of winning, he says. This is delivered, of course, with the essential warning that it's still very early at four months out, and no one should be counting any chickens yet. Go to his full article here.
The current model, based on polling alone, has Clinton ahead in the popular vote 48.8% to 42.0% for Donald Trump, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson currently at 7.9%. The state map has Clinton with 348 electoral votes to Trump's 190. Battleground states where the lead is relatively close shape up this way. Clinton is ahead in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire. Trump has the edge in Missouri, Arizona and Georgia. The statistical probability of a Clinton election is 79.2%, for a Trump win is 20.7%. You can go to Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com site and play with his election maps here.
Silver's "Polls Plus" model gives Trump a slightly higher chance for an upset. This calculation goes beyond current polls to add in historical data such as the effect of a two-term president of one party not seeking re-election, and the present economic conditions under those circumstances. This calculation gives Clinton a 73.3% chance compared to Trump's 26.6%. The electoral vote probability in this scenario has Clinton at 316 and Trump at 222. The chief switches are to put North Carolina in the Republican column and pull Arizona and Georgia out of near tossups and assign them "lean Republican" status.
Silver's statistical wizardry is legendary. He correctly called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states for the 2008 election, and forecast all 50 states correctly in 2012.
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