March 15 Primaries: What to Look For

Five populous states rich in delegates will be up for grabs in tomorrow's March 15 primary contests. The main question to be answered in these important primaries is whether the Democratic and Republican challengers can blunt the momentum of front runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in their respective races. We'll start with the Democrats first.

Democrats
Hillary Clinton starts with a 215-delegate lead among pledged delegates elected so far, 766 to 551. Among the roughly 700 superdelegates, who can vote for whomever they wish, she has been endorsed so far by 461 while only 25 have have declared they are backing Bernie Sanders. Sanders's strategy thus has to be to win states by convincing enough margins that he overcomes Clinton's pledged delegate lead and also makes superdelegates change their minds.
North Carolina has 107 delegates at stake. Polls show Clinton ahead by an average of 24 points, 57 to 33 percent. Her lead has been shrinking, so let me generously (for Bernie) project that she holds on by a narrow 52-48 margin. That would give Hillary 56 delegates and Bernie 51.
Florida has a trove of 214 delegates. Clinton is way ahead in all polls. Her average lead is 29 points, 61 percent to 32. If we give Bernie all the undecideds and call the outcome 60-40 for Hillary, she will come home with 128 delegates and he will get 86.
Ohio sends 143 delegates to the Democratic convention in Philadelphia. Polls have Clinton up by an average of 8 points, 51 to 43. Her lead has been shrinking, so let's suppose Sanders nips her at the wire and wins by an eyelash. Call it 72 delegates for the Bern, 71 for Hillary.
Illinois elects 156 Democratic delegates. Polls show a virtual dead heat, with the Secretary up by 48-46 over the Senator. Again, momentum is moving Sanders's way, so we'll project another buzzer beater win for the Vermonter: 79 delegates to 77.
Missouri chooses 71 delegates. It's another state in which polls give Clinton a narrow lead, 46-43 in this case. Once again, let's presume the challenger closes the gap and ekes out a victory, 36 delegates to 35. 

The end of all this, which I've shaded toward Sanders in every case, is two wins for Clinton, one of them solid, and three close wins for Sanders. The important factor is that Hillary has her biggest lead in the biggest state with the most delegates, Florida. The end of all this results in 367 delegates won for her and 324 delegates won for him. Hillary stands to increase her lead by around 43 delegates, giving her 1133 pledged delegates to Bernie's 875 by the end of the night. With 4,000 total pledged delegates to be won by the end of the primary season, this means Sanders would need to win 1,126 of the 1,992 delegates in the remaining primaries and caucuses to catch up. That means winning every state by an average of 56.5% to 43.5%, a 13-point margin. That is, frankly, a very tall order. If you add in the superdelegates, she will be ahead 1594 to 900, and would need only 788 of the 2270 delegates of both types to win the nomination. That's only 35 percent. So, unless there is a severe collapse in Clinton's support, she has to be considered the prohibitive favorite to be the nominee. On election night, watch the returns from North Carolina first, then Florida. If North Carolina is going Bernie's way, the miracle for him could be happening. If Clinton isn't rolling up a big margin in Florida it portends major problems for her in the states that report in later. But if they are going according to form, Hillary Clinton will be one step closer to the Democratic nomination.

Republicans
Donald Trump has a 90-delegate lead on Ted Cruz, his closest pursuer. Marco Rubio and John Kasich trail farther behind. The current count is Trump 460, Cruz 370, Rubio 163 and Kasich 63. That gives Trump 44% of the delegates awarded so far, tantalizingly close to the 50 percent pace he needs to secure the nomination on the first ballot. The clear leader in four of the five states at issue, he stands a good chance to add to that percentage when the votes are counted from this next round.
North Carolina offers 72 GOP delegates. Trump enjoys a 12-point polling margin on Cruz there 41-29, with Kasich (11) and Rubio (9) being non-factors. Prediction: 35 delegates for Trump, 28 for Cruz, 5 for Kasich and 4 for Rubio.
Florida has 99 delegates on the table, and the state is winner take all. It's do or die for Rubio in his home state, and it's not looking good for him. Average surveys have Trump at 43, Rubio at 24, Cruz with 19 and Kasich at 9. Chalk up 99 delegates for the Donald.
Ohio has 66 at stake and it's also winner take all. As with Rubio in Florida, it's win or go home for John Kasich in the Buckeye state. But this time, it looks like Ohio Republicans are turning to their home state governor. It's still close: surveys give Kasich an average of 38 to Trump's 34, but the trend has been moving his way, so I'll predict a Kasich win. Besides, if he doesn't the race is practically over. So 66 delegates for John Kasich.
Illinois has 69 delegates, to be distributed proportionally. Polls say Trump 35, Cruz 26, Cruz 18 and Rubio 13. If that's how it comes down Trump will win 28, Cruz 21, Kasich 12 and Rubio 8.
Missouri wraps up the day's voting with 52 delegates. It has a GOP allotment process that I'll call "winner take most." There's only been one poll there, and it shows Trump 36 percent, Cruz 29, Rubio 9 and Kasich 8. If that is accurate Trump will win 36 delegates and Cruz will take in 16.

Four wins for the night for Trump would give him 198 of the 358 delegates at stake. Kasich, thanks primarily to winning Ohio, would get 83. Cruz would add 65 and Rubio 12. The standings at the end of the day would read Trump 658, Cruz 435, Rubio 175 and Kasich 146.  With 1,058 delegates left in the contests ahead, Trump would need 579 to lock down the nomination, 54.7% of all those still to be won. Rubio would likely have to exit the race after losing Florida, leaving Kasich as the remaining conventional Republican hope. There are still several winner take all contests left, especially the big prize of California. Unless Cruz can pull some unexpected upsets in places like Missouri, North Carolina and Illinois, the Trump train appears on track to steam its way to the nomination at Cleveland. And if Kasich doesn't win Ohio, that will become almost inevitable.