Ukrainian Situation: What Next?

The situation in Ukraine has preoccupied the world's attention for the past several weeks,  First there was the popular uprising against President Yanukovich for his decision to spurn the European Union in favor of closer ties to Russia.  When his police forces turned on the people with deadly force he lost all credibility and support.  He fled the country and surfaced later in--where else--Russia.

Next the Ukrainian Parliament declared him to have abandoned his post and selected a successor.  This was quickly followed by the intervention of thinly-disguised Russian troops into the southern province of Crimea, where Russia still maintains a major naval base, leased from Ukraine.  The Crimean regional parliament was "dismissed" by Russian troops and replaced by pro-Moscow politicians who have now called for elections in 10 days to allow the people to decide whether Crimea should remain part of Ukraine or become part of Russia.

The US and EU have responded with calls for support for Ukraine.  Today the U.S. House of Representatives voted to support President Obama's offer of $1 billion in aid for Ukraine's government.  He said that economic sanctions on Russia will not be far behind.  The EU is considering aid and economic sanctions on Russia as well.  For their part, Russia has countered by withdrawing offers to support Ukraine with $15 billion in aid and provide them hefty discounts on natural gas.  What's next?

Well, in truth, Crimea should probably have been part of Russia all along.  The people who live there are not Ukrainian.  It's about 60% ethnic Russian and was added to Ukraine by Soviet Premier Nikita Khruschev in 1954 simply as part of an administrative reorganization.  That doesn't make Russia's thuggish tactics, clearly orchestrated under the direction of its President, Vladimir Putin, right.  But with a majority Russian population and as the home base of the Russian Black Sea fleet it is clearly considered a vital interest to the Kremlin.  And the majority of its people probably actually do want to be part of Russia.  

Putin and Obama had a 90-minute phone conversation last week reportedly had another 60-minute talk today.  That augurs well for a diplomatic solution.  The West can do a great deal of harm to the Russian economy if push comes to shove.  There will not be a Russian-American war over this.  Look for some form of arrangement whereby the Ukrainian Parliament agrees to allow the sovereignty election, which would make it legal.  In exchange, Russia will agree to lay off the Eastern part of Ukraine, such as the city of Kharkiv, where Russians are also numerous, and let Ukraine cozy up to the EU.