2010 Senate Races Previewed

The U.S. Senate is the big prize still to be determined in Tuesday's election, and it could go either way. The Senate is the arena that will decide whether President Barack Obama has an opposition congress in both houses or only one. It is already highly likely Republicans will gain the majority of governorships and take control of the House of Representatives. For the record, I forecast the GOP will enjoy a net gain of seven state houses, thereby turning a 26-24 Democratic advantage into a 31-19 Republican edge. In the House I see a 55-seat turnover which will change the present 255-178 Democratic advantage (with two vacancies) to a 233-202 majority for the GOP. But now back to the Senate.

Democrats have 59 seats in the Senate; Republicans have 41. Thirty-seven seats are contested this year, 19 held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans. Republicans will need a net gain of ten seats to win a 51-49 majority. It is clear they will pick up seats but can they get ten? Yes, it is possible, but the most likely result is tantalizingly close: they are likely to gain eight or nine. Let's look at all the close races in turn. Eleven Democratic seats are in greater or lesser degrees of jeopardy. By paying attention to these on election night you will be able to tell what is happening.

Let's start with the three Democratic seats in conservative states they are certain to lose.
1) North Dakota. With Byron Dorgan retiring, Democrat Tracy Potter is behind Republican John Hoeven by more than two to one.
2) Indiana. Popular Senator Evan Bayh is retiring. Dan Coats (R) leads Brad Ellsworth (D) by an average of 19%.
3) Arkansas. Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D) trails John Boozman (R) by 17.

The fourth likely Republican pickup endangers a three-term incumbent.
4) Wisconsin. Russ Feingold (D) is running behind Ron Johnson (R) by an average of 7.7% in recent surveys. It would be a small miracle for him to pull this one out now.

A third group of contests includes races for current Democratic seats where the numbers are close but favor the Republican.
5) Nevada. Majority leader Harry Reid (D) is down an average of 4 points to tea party favorite Sharon Engle. This one is still being called a tossup but is probably hers unless Reid's get out the vote effort is remarkable. Only 6% of voters say they remain undecided.
6) Pennsylvania. Former Republican turned Democrat Arlen Specter was defeated in the primary by Joe Sestak (D), who now trails conservative Republican Pat Toomey by 3.8%. In a normal year Sestak would win this state but this is not such a year.
7) Illinois. Mark Kirk (R) is up 2.8 points over Alexi Giannoulias (D) in an average of several polls for President Obama's old seat. This is a race where both candidates have flaws. The President will campaign for Giannoulias Sunday and Monday and 16% of the voters are still undecided, so it could go the other way. But a Democrat still behind in heavily Democratic Illinois at this stage is obviously in trouble.
8) Colorado. Ken Buck (R) leads Michael Bennet (D) by an average of 2.3% in recent surveys. Benet was appointed to complete the term of Ken Salazar, now Secretary of the Interior in the Obama Administration. Buck's lead is small but has been consistent in the last few weeks, indicating Bennet does not seem to have closing momentum.

The eight races summarized so far would get the Republicans close, to 49. What do they need to get them over the top? This next group of three races are their tougher opportunities. They need one to forge a 50-50 tie in the Senate, and two out of three to gain the majority.
9) Washington. Incumbent Patty Murray (D) is in a statistical dead heat with Dino Rossi (R). Washington is normally a pretty liberal state, which would seem to favor Murray, but Rossi has the recent momentum in the polls. Clearly this could go either way, but in this year's environment it is tough to bet against Rossi.
10) California. Three-term incumbent Barbara Boxer (D) has been a GOP target for years and this time they are giving her a real run for it. Wealthy former Hewlitt-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) is self-funding her challenge to Boxer. It appears she will fall short, though. The latest group of surveys has Boxer up by an average of 4.3 points. This has closed from six points in the past couple of weeks, but time is very short now. It's a probable Democratic hold.
11) West Virginia. The last reasonably possible Republican Senate gain is in the Mountaineer State, where popular Governor Jim Manchin (D) leads John Raese (R) by 4.5%. At this point Raese has only an outside chance. But in a socially conservative state in this election environment it's a chance that cannot be dismissed.

Are there any currently Republican-held Senate seats where Democrats might conceivably take one away? The three most possible are Kentucky, Missouri and Alaska, but none are very likely. In Kentucky, tea partier Rand Paul (R) is out in front of Jack Conway (D) by 9.8%. In Missouri Roy Blunt (R) leads Robin Carnahan (D) by 10.4%. Watch Kentucky, which should report early. If Paul is not coasting that would indicate the Democrats are going to do much better than expected this year. Alaska is a special case, where incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski lost the Republican nomination to tea party choice Joe Miller. She entered the general election race as a write in and has surged ahead of Miller 37 to 27. The Democratic nominee, Scott McAdams, lags behind both with 23. It is just possible that if Murkowski and Miller split the conservative vote down the middle McAdams might sneak in with a 35% win in the three-way race. Murkowski has another problem, in that a court has ruled people must spell her name correctly for her to get their write-in votes.

Realistically, a Democratic win in any of these three states is not at all probable on Tuesday. Republicans will most likely pick up eight or nine Senate seats and go into the next Congress with 49 or 50 votes in the 100-seat upper chamber. If they gain nine and the Senate is evenly divided, expect Vice President Joe Biden to be a busy fellow for the next two years. According to the Constitution, the Vice President casts the tie breaking vote in a deadlocked Senate.