Can Democrats Hang On to Congress?

All signs point to Republican pickups in Congress this November. The RealClearPolitics average of polls gives them a 5.3% edge over Democrats in a "generic" congressional race. If the Democrats are to minimize their losses, there is an avenue of opportunity. This is because the voters' current electoral preference for the GOP is not because people like the Republicans or what they have to offer. The Democratic Party has an overall 32% favorability rating while the Republicans' is only 24%.

Voters are frustrated that economic growth and job creation are sluggish, and the Democrats are in power. They, therefore, are set up to take the political hit. The numbers indicate no groundswell of support for Republicans or their solutions, just a level of exasperation with the status quo. Given an approval level of only 24% the lack of confidence is actually more pronounced against the GOP. Most people do not seem to be buying their customary message about cutting taxes and shrinking regulation and government help.

The strategy for Democrats to adopt in the coming weeks should therefore contain a heavy dose of raising skepticism about Republican ideas. Going negative, if you will. Certainly Democrats ought to defend their own policies, such as successfully saving GM and Chrysler, preventing financial implosion, passing health care improvements that will help the average family, wrapping things up in Iraq and taking credit for the up to 3 million jobs the non-partisan Government Accountability Office says the stimulus has produced.

But it will be, in the current environment, much more effective to call into question GOP positions which are essentially the same ones that many blame for precipitating the recession in the first place, or others that would have denied relief to those hard-pressed by economic turmoil. The Dems will have to bank on the idea that most voters will agree with them that doing nothing is not the way out of present difficulties.