Nuclear Proliferation Must Be Stopped

I gave a talk on nuclear proliferation issues at the Visalia League of Women Voters meeting on Tuesday, March 16. The League is considering making that a key issue for their study this year.

I did some research and came to a few conclusions: 1) The existence of the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has slowed down the spread of nuclear weapons in the world, though it has not eliminated it. 2) The United States and Russia still possess nearly 95% of all nuclear weapons. 3) China is central to the success of efforts to reign in would-be nuclear weapons states Iran and North Korea. 4) The greatest danger may well be the possibility of "non-state actors" such as terrorist or private groups gaining possession of a device. It is to this end that a movement of former superpower statesmen has begun campaigning for the global elimination of all nuclear weapons.

The NPT was introduced in 1968 by Ireland and Finland and ratified in 1970. By its provisions the five nuclear powers agreed not to disseminate nuclear weapons technology to any other state or entity. The five powers were the United States, Soviet Union (now Russia), China, Britain and France. The rest of the signatories pledged not to pursue nuclear weapons, and in return the five agreed to share peaceful nuclear technology with them. The five NPT nuclear weapons states also agreed to pursue negotiations for the eventual elimination of all nuclear weapons. Only three nations have never been signatories to the Treaty: India, Pakistan and Israel. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was established as the investigative arm of the Treaty. There have been some successes. Libya renounced its program in 1993. South Africa yielded its six fission bombs and closed its program in 1994. Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus repatriated the former Soviet weapons on their soil to Russia after they achieved independence. The IAEA was in the process of proving that Iraq had no nuclear weapons program in 2003 when the Bush administration ordered it out of the country.

The United States and Russia still possess an overwhelming percentage of the world's nuclear arsenal, nearly 95% of all devices and 89% of all that are operational. This amounts to about 23,000 bombs today, down from a high of 65,000 in 1985. The last Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between the two expired last December, but talks are currently underway and are expected to reduce the respective stocks by another 25%.

The nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea are presently an area of tremendous concern for the world. Iran is an NPT signatory and claims to be pursuing only peaceful nuclear technology. North Korea is a former signatory that renounced its adherence in 2003. North Korea appears to have gotten assistance from the A. Q. Khan network of Pakistan. Khan is known as the father of the Pakistani atomic program. Iran is thought to have gotten its from North Korea, thus a spinoff of the Pakistani effort. The common denominator in international enforcement against both states is the importance of the Chinese attitude. It is not coincidental that China has been the most reluctant to approve strong sanctions against Iran. For instance, a recent proposal by the US, Britain, France and Germany for sanctions against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard apparatus was supported by Russia, but China has made no public comment. Iran is China's primary oil supplier. It would be a good idea to find China another reliable oil source to change this dynamic. Similarly, though an unstable, unpredictable and nuclear-armed North Korea on its border may not be in China's interest, its leadership may feel that neither is a prosperous, free, united Korea with a sizable American military presence. To secure China's cooperation and U.N. Security Council vote, its interests in these matters will need to be addressed.

Finally, the fear of accident, miscalculation or proliferation to a terrorist group or other non-state actor is also a matter of rising concern. It has prompted an unprecedented effort on the part of former Republican Secretaries of State George Schultz and Henry Kissinger and Democrats former Defense Secretary William Perry and former Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Sam Nunn to write joint editorials in the Wall Street Journal in January 2007 and January 2008 calling for the total elimination of these weapons and a no-nonsense international body to enforce this. The 2008 article lists a number of steps that could be taken to make this a reality. Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev offered his concurrence with this goal in his own letter to the Journal. As he put it, "It is becoming clearer that nuclear weapons are no longer a means of achieving security; in fact, with every passing year they make our security more precarious."