Thoughts on Iran

Events in Iran may be building toward a tipping point. Soon, either the supporters of presidential election challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi will take their protests to the next level or the government of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his declared victorious incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will ride things out.

First of all, the announced results of the election are almost certainly fabricated. The results of hand-counted paper ballots appeared far too quickly to be believed. The results defied the observations of observers in country, where according to the released totals the incumbent won in places like Tehran where reporters could scarcely find an Ahmadinejad supporter before the vote.

A number of intriguing goings on portend important changes in the landscape both in Iran and around the world in the contemporary era. Mousavi's supporters are planning the biggest demonstrations yet for tomorrow. They seem to be doing a good job of keeping things peaceful, from their end. The government and its paramilitary thugs, are trying their best to stifle avenues of organization and protest. They are tying to jam and block e-mail, texting, facebook, twitter and broadcast outlets. Still, average citizens are risking much to post video of demonstrations and oppression on sites like You Tube.

One important question is whether such electronic communications and networking sites can be controlled by governments, or can people continue to find ways around impediments? These means are clearly being used to coordinate the movement and getting its message out to the rest of Iran and indeed the world.

Another is whether the Iranian theocracy will last. They have an elected government, but also an unelected and unaccountable Supreme Council of Shia Mullahs whose authority trumps everyone else's. Whether this can and will stand in the face of the younger generation and more educated populace's desire for a more open and democratic society is an open question. Earlier protests in 1999 and 2003 fizzled. Will this time be different?

One of the key determinants may well be whether a galvanizing moment takes place. A bloody and well-publicized event like China's 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre could well push things into open and violent rebellion. Officialdom will have a dilemma calibrating the level of repression that might work with what will be tolerated. Most of them well remember their movement's own accession to power in the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and they must understand similar forces could throw them out this time around. The world holds its breath.