Vacation Time

We're on our way to Oregon and Washington for vacation this morning.  We'll stay at Mt. Shasta tonight, and then at a cabin on the McKenzie River for four days.  we'll next proceed up to Portland, where Joan will attend the 4-day National Handbell Convention.  We'll get to stay with a dear friiend of mine from college, Jeff Deiss, and while Joan's at the conference I'll get to chum around with Jeff and my other college friends Tom Reardon, Ron Schlichtenmyer and Dana Brown.

Then it's up to Seattle to meet up with my sister Toni.  After touring Seattle and environs for a couple of days it's down to Ashland, Oregon for some plays.  The two Shakespeare are Midsummer Night's Dream and Taming of the Shrew.  The two non-bard are Robin Hood and one set in Mexico.  It should be a great time!

Air Pollution Kills

The New York Times reports that the National Academy of Sciences has released a scientific finding on air pollution.  It finds that people in the northern part of China have their lifespans shortened by an average of five years compared to residents of southern China.  The reason?  Heavy air pollution caused by the massive proliferation of coal-fired electrical power plants.  The north is industrializing to a greater extent than the south, accounting for most of the difference.  There are also greater hydroelectric resources in the south.

The study was conducted by four scientists: two Chinese, one American, and one Israeli.  The study, examining records over a 20-year period from 1981-2001, may actually understate the effect, since many more plants have been built since then.  Such statistical analyses over twenty years and encompassing a large population make clear the heavy human cost of specific developmental choices.

The message is clear: cost-benefit calculations must include more than just direct economic factors.  They need to extend to such factors as medical,  life-expectancy, water and indeed all human and environmental costs associated with any contemplated course of action.  That would show the true cost of some seemingly cheaper developmental options.

Loving the National Parks

My oldest daughter visited us for the weekend, and yesterday we spent the day at Sequoia National Park.  I was reminded again how great our national parks are, and for so many reasons.  To start with, they preserve the rare and the beautiful.  The Giant Forest area of Sequoia, which includes the General Sherman tree, the largest living thing on earth, is about an hour and a half drive from home.  Without the national park idea, these trees would all be gone, cut down for lumber.  As it is, we have only three percent of the redwood forests that existed 150 years ago.  They would be extinct had they not been placed in a federal preserve as urged by John Muir and guarded by the "buffalo soldiers" beginning in 1890.


The parks preserve natural ecosystems, giving us baseline examples by which to measure the health of the natural world.  They give us welcome respites from the noise and grit of the modern world, and that in turn seems to bring out the best in the human spirit.  As Jeanette and I climbed Moro Rock or hiked the Alta Trail we came across people from many different countries.  We heard conversation in many tongues, both identifiable and mysterious, and  the common denominators were happiness and friendliness.  People were universally in a good mood, smiling and laughing, faces gazing upward to the canopy in wonder or to the sculpted horizon in awe.  Brotherhood reigned as folks shared their impressions, asked directions or shared sights and pictures with complete strangers in pidgin or gestures.  The atmosphere at a national park gives me hope that maybe someday international problems can be surmounted and we can all get along.  There is something about unspoiled nature that brings out the positive in people.

Comprehensive Immigration Stalled?

I'm beginning to think the chances are growing that comprehensive immigration reform may run into an unresolvable roadblock in the House of Representatives.  Like the fiscal "grand bargain" and sensible gun regulation, the national need, public opinion and the long-term good of the Republican Party are likely to be sacrificed to right wing ideology and the short-term political imperatives of getting re-elected in strongly conservative districts. 

Everyone knows the long-term national prospects of the Republican Party are dismal unless they can find a way to reverse their recent terrible performance with Hispanic voters.  Mitt Romney won only 27% of the nation's largest and fastest -growing minority group in the 2012 election.  What's more, national surveys indicate strong support across the country for an immigration bill that includes a path to citizenship.  In last week's passage of comprehensive immigration, 14 of the 46 GOP senators broke with their leadership and voted for the bipartisan plan that increases border security in exchange for a lengthy process that would allow the undocumented to eventually become citizens.  Together with unanimous support from Senate Democrats, the final vote produced an impressive 68-32 majority for reform.

Even so, heavy obstacles remain in the House.  None is more important than the composition of the Republican districts their members represent.  The great majority of GOP congress men and women are in safe Republican districts.  70% of congressional districts represented by a Republican are less than 10% Hispanic.  So even though they know their party needs to make inroads in the Hispanic vote to win the macro political struggle, especially in the long run, in their own cases they have much more to fear in their particular districts from primary challengers from their right who will accuse them of voting for "amnesty" for "illegal aliens," two terms that are political dynamite among arch conservatives. 

The only way to pass comprehensive immigration in the House is a bill that would win over the Democrats and 15 or 20 of the most moderate Republicans.   But Speaker John Boehner, whose own position is precarious and has shown little ability to stand up to the tea party extremists in his own caucus, has said he will introduce no bill in the House that doesn't have majority Republican support.  That rules out any bill that doesn't support harshly punitive steps against undocumented workers, the type of bill that cannot pass the Senate.  In the final analysis, in order to get anything done, House Republicans would have to vote for the national interest and their party's long term interest over their own individual short-term political interests. 

That takes political courage.  It is is the kind of thing many House Democrats did in passing health reform in 2010, and many paid for it that November with the loss of their seats.  Up to now, it is the kind of perspective we have seen precious little of from the members of this Republican House.  Though it would be a welcome development, it may be too much to hope for.   

 

Two Momentous Wins for Equal Rights Today!

June 26, 2013 will forever stand as a momentous day for equality in America.  I grew up watching network news film of black and Latino Americans getting beaten and killed for attempting to claim their constitutional rights.  Gay, lesbian and transgender Americans were publicly reviled, bullied and denigrated.  Today's Supreme Court rulings overturning the federal Defense of Marriage Act and California's Proposition 8 denial of same-sex marriage rights are the latest crowning achievements in the nation's long struggle to fully embody its own founding credo: "we hold these truths to be self evident, that all men are created equal..." The progress I have seen over time has seemed long in coming, but is perhaps for that very reason all the more inspiring and breathtaking.  What a glorious day in American history.

Here is part of the statement released by President Barack Obama on the DOMA ruling. 

"I applaud the Supreme Court's decision to strike down the Defense of Marriage Act. This was discrimination enshrined in law. It treated loving, committed gay and lesbian couples as a separate and lesser class of people. The Supreme Court has righted that wrong, and our country is better off for it. We are a people who declared that we are all created equal -- and the love we commit to one another must be equal as well.

And here is part of the announcement on the California Proposition 8 decision from the office of Governor Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown, Jr.

From The Office of the Governor
6-26-2013

SACRAMENTO – Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. today issued the following statement on the United States Supreme Court ruling on Proposition 8 (Hollingsworth v. Perry):

“After years of struggle, the U.S. Supreme Court today has made same-sex marriage a reality in California. In light of the decision, I have directed the California Department of Public Health to advise the state’s counties that they must begin issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples in California as soon as the Ninth Circuit confirms the stay is lifted,” said Governor Brown.

 

California's Budget: On Time and Balanced!

Practically lost in the shuffle of last week's news was the passage of the California state budget--balanced and on time.  The legislature met the constitutional June 15 deadline a day early on Friday, June 14, then convened a rare Saturday session on the 15th to pass the "trailer bills" needed to implement the $96 billion spending blueprint. 

This is a big deal.  The state budget had not been passed on time for thirty years before this.  For decades, state employees and many local government workers like police and teachers had not known for months whether their jobs would continue or they would be furloughed, losing indeterminate amounts of their income.  People depending on services would not know whether those services would be there for them when needed.  Businesses would twist in limbo for months, uncertain about whether things like water and transportation would be available and at what rates, or whether their contracts would be continued, reduced or cancelled. 

But this year things went swimmingly.  I'm predicting they will continue to do so most of the time from now on.  Credit for this happy state of affairs goes primarily to two deserving recipients: the voters of California and Governor Jerry Brown.  The legislature gets a little provisional credit, which is contingent on how they do next year. 

Here's the explanation:

The people get major credit for passing Proposition 25, the Majority Vote Budget Initiative, in November, 2010 by a 55%-45% margin.  The initiative made California the 48th state able to pass its budget by a majority vote of the legislature.  It had required a 2/3 vote up to then.  No longer could the Republican minority hold up the budget's passage with 30 votes out of 80 in the Assembly or 15 out of 40 in the Senate.  Prop 25 also provided the additional incentive that the legislators' paychecks would be withheld and they would be docked for every day it was late.

The voters also get big credit for helping actually balance the budget by passing Proposition 30 in November 2012.  The extra revenue made a balanced budget a realistic feasibility by raising $7-9 billion in revenue with a 1/2 cent sales tax hike and a 1% to 3% increase in upper-level income taxes.  In the past, the Republican minority would insist on tax cuts in exchange for having a couple of their legislators vote for the budget.  The resulting revenue cut would put the budget out of balance and necessitate more cuts the next year.  It actually put the minority in charge of the budget process, since they could hold the majority hostage with just a few votes. 

Governor Jerry Brown deserves a lot of credit too.  He has refused to let the legislature get away with passing on time but unbalanced budgets, as they attempted to do in 2012.  Brown refused to sign that budget and Controller John Chiang held up their paychecks until a real budget was sent to the governor's desk.  This year, thanks to his firm stand last time, the lawmakers thus knew Brown meant business and they passed a real balanced budget actually on time.  Brown's insistence on making the tough cuts necessary built not only credibility with the legislators, but trust with the voters, who then helped out by raising their own taxes to close the rest of the gap.          

It's a real success story of intelligent steps taken by the people combined with firm leadership at the top of state government.  Two thumbs up for a job well done!  

  

 

Sugar Message Getting Through: Soda Sales Falling

There's good news on the health front today.  An article in Take Part reports that soda sales in the U.S. have dropped eight years in a row.  The Wall Street Journal reports that the industry's revenues are now dropping too.  They had offset slumping sales by simply raising prices, but that started to backfire in 2012, when sales and revenues continued to fall even during the year end holiday period.  Formerly, people tended to stock up regardless of price in that period.

It seems the health message is definitely starting to get through.  The link between excessive sugar, including high fructose corn syrup, obesity and diabetes is becoming ever clearer, and even the launching of hundreds of millions of dollars in ad campaigns, including $50 million at the last Super Bowl alone, and endorsement contracts by such mega stars such as Beyonce Knowles have been unable to turn the tide.  The Journal offers the assessment that this may be "the new normal" for the soda pop industry.  It's amazing what a trickle of facts can sometimes do against an avalanche of propaganda.

Baby boomers are aging and getting more health conscious, and the primary target group, young people, are gravitating toward waters, energy drinks and coffee rather than sugary sodas these days.  Still, don't expect the three biggest players, Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Snapple to ride off quietly into the sunset.  They continue to work on low-calorie sweeteners and have diversified into more types of drinks.  Finally, they are playing their ace in the whole: a new emphasis on "opening new markets," or, in other words, expanding aggressively into places like China and Brazil, where they can repeat their former American success by hooking hundreds of millions of new and less informed customers, thereby creating an obesity and diabetes crisis there that they won't have to deal with for perhaps another couple of decades.