Barack Obama continued his dominance of caucus and heavily African-American states and Mike Huckabee continued to demonstrate the vitality of his appeal in today's primary contests. As a result, the Democratic race becomes ever tighter and the Republican contest will last a little longer.
On the Democratic side, Obama won three states he needed to win. He ran up better than two to one margins in caucuses in Nebraska and Washington and took the Louisiana primary 57-36% over Hillary Clinton. Estimates give Obama 69 pledged delegates from today's voting and Clinton 40. Obama's campaign predicts he will increase his total to over 100 once final allotments are made. According to CNN's count which includes Superdelegates, Clinton currently leads the delegate race 1100 to 1039. Obama stands a good chance to pull ahead on Tuesday the 12th when Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia will decide nearly 200 delegates. Obama is favored in all three contests. Sunday's Maine caucus, where Clinton is thought to have a chance, has only 34 delegates at stake.
Among the Republicans, Huckabee surged to a 60-24% pasting of John McCain in caucuses in Kansas. Ron Paul garnered 11%. Huckabee will get all 36 delegates from Kansas. Huckabee also outpolled McCain in Louisiana primary voting 43-42%, but a complicated procedure will now come into play to award the state's delegates since no one got 50% of the votes. Returns from Nebraska are very slow in coming in and show Huckabee and McCain running neck and neck, with Paul getting a surprising 21%. It's clear social conservatives are less than happy with the prospect of McCain as the Republican nominee. Even so, number crunchers have demonstrated that were Huckabee to win every state that is yet to vote by an average of 10% McCain would still get to the magic number of 1191 delegates needed to secure the nomination due to the proportional awarding of delegates in most states.
And now a word about the Democratic race's format. With today's victories in Nebraska and Washington Obama is 10-1 in caucus states. He is also 4-0 in states in which African-Americans make up one-third or more of the Democratic electorate. He is 4-12 in all other states, and one of those four wins came in his home state of Illinois. What explains this disparity?
First, most people don't realize how many fewer voters go to caucuses than traditional voting polls. Today, for example, over 350,000 votes were cast in Louisiana while only some 32,000 caucused in Washington, this despite the populations of the two states being roughly equal. The Kansas Republican caucus decided that state's convention delegation based on the votes of barely 18,000 people. Because a caucus requires a voter to be at the caucus at a particular time of day and commit to spending perhaps three hours going through the process, it gives an advantage to the candidate whose supporters are the most enthusiastic. Obama's certainly appear to be so.
Second, it also gives an advantage to those of greater means and independence. This includes those who can arrange child care or don't have children, or don't have to work, for instance. Since Obama's backers include higher proportions of those who are better off (can get out of work or afford to arrange for child care) and who are younger (often who don't have children or are students who do not work) this gives more of his backers an opportunity to attend. Surveys indicate Clinton appeals more to working class voters who are more likely to have child care issues and who are generally less able to get out of work to go to a caucus. Clinton also has more support among senior citizens, and the prospect of securing transportation and sitting through such a long meeting is likely daunting to many of them.
Third, it puts a great premium on a campaign's ground organization, and in this the Obama campaign has by all accounts excelled.
In my view caucuses should be abandoned. A system that defines a single time of day when voters must vote unduly restricts the electorate. A system that subjects the voters to a process that takes hours also restricts the electorate. A process that requires voters to publicly declare their vote instead of using the secret ballot not only resticts the electorate but subjects those who attend to social pressure. Finally, the turnout totals show just how far caucuses depress voting. It is far better to make voting as easy as possible for the greatest number of people, and to open the voting up to the 50% who will go to the reasonable trouble to cast a ballot rather than just the 5% of committed activists and people of means and leisure who will go to a caucus.
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Romney Out; What's With Huckabee?
As predicted here on January 30, Mitt Romney failed to sufficiently slow the McCain train and bowed out two days after Super Tuesday. Romney is to be commended for bowing to the inevitable; he would have needed 88% of the remaining Republican delegates to win the nomination, an impossibility in practical terms against two opponents.
The larger question now becomes why Mike Huckabee is staying in. Huckabee's odds are even longer. He would need to claim 93% of all yet to be determined Republican delegates to be crowned the party's standard bearer at the convention in St. Paul. While it's true he faces only one major opponent (apologies to Ron Paul), that's a practical impossibility too. So what is he up to?
Well, for one thing he's certainly campaigning in earnest. Today he began an extensive trek through Kansas and he's expected to go next to Virginia and do the same thing. Huckabee is also basking in today's endorsement by Focus on the Family founder and Christian conservative icon Dr. James Dobson. Does Huck really think he can still win the nomination?
No, he's far too smart for that. You don't win six statewide elections in a swing state without being able to read the electoral math. He knows very well he has no chance. Instead, two things are most likely on his mind: pushing McCain to the right and just maybe setting himself up as running mate.
By challenging McCain in socially conservative states Huckabee is trying to impress the Arizonan with the need to tack to the right instead of back to the center as usually happens in a general election campaign. If Huckabee can win in such states or lose closely enough to embarass the presumptive nominee, he hopes to force McCain to adhere to the positions the political and social right holds dear. "Don't take the base for granted" is the message. Many prominent right wing print and radio pundits are incensed at McCain's success and predict doom. "John McCain as the nominee would be the destruction of the Republican Party!" bloviates Rush Limbaugh. At the Conservative Political Action Conference today McCain was met with boos and jeers when he brought up the subject of immigration. So part of Huckabee's staying in is to try to force McCain to take conservative positions he won't be able to abandon if he wins the White House.
The other message in Huckabee's decision to continue is revealingly set forth by his own statement, "I've proven I can win in the South. A Republican who can't win in the South won't be president." Implicit in Huckabee's quote is that if he continues to prove McCain is weak with the base then that shows McCain needs help there-and Huckabee is the one who can deliver that help. Mike Huckabee knows full well he won't be the nominee. But he's left his calling card on John McCain's doorstep.
The larger question now becomes why Mike Huckabee is staying in. Huckabee's odds are even longer. He would need to claim 93% of all yet to be determined Republican delegates to be crowned the party's standard bearer at the convention in St. Paul. While it's true he faces only one major opponent (apologies to Ron Paul), that's a practical impossibility too. So what is he up to?
Well, for one thing he's certainly campaigning in earnest. Today he began an extensive trek through Kansas and he's expected to go next to Virginia and do the same thing. Huckabee is also basking in today's endorsement by Focus on the Family founder and Christian conservative icon Dr. James Dobson. Does Huck really think he can still win the nomination?
No, he's far too smart for that. You don't win six statewide elections in a swing state without being able to read the electoral math. He knows very well he has no chance. Instead, two things are most likely on his mind: pushing McCain to the right and just maybe setting himself up as running mate.
By challenging McCain in socially conservative states Huckabee is trying to impress the Arizonan with the need to tack to the right instead of back to the center as usually happens in a general election campaign. If Huckabee can win in such states or lose closely enough to embarass the presumptive nominee, he hopes to force McCain to adhere to the positions the political and social right holds dear. "Don't take the base for granted" is the message. Many prominent right wing print and radio pundits are incensed at McCain's success and predict doom. "John McCain as the nominee would be the destruction of the Republican Party!" bloviates Rush Limbaugh. At the Conservative Political Action Conference today McCain was met with boos and jeers when he brought up the subject of immigration. So part of Huckabee's staying in is to try to force McCain to take conservative positions he won't be able to abandon if he wins the White House.
The other message in Huckabee's decision to continue is revealingly set forth by his own statement, "I've proven I can win in the South. A Republican who can't win in the South won't be president." Implicit in Huckabee's quote is that if he continues to prove McCain is weak with the base then that shows McCain needs help there-and Huckabee is the one who can deliver that help. Mike Huckabee knows full well he won't be the nominee. But he's left his calling card on John McCain's doorstep.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Democrats: The Next Contests
Super Tuesday is over, and with a near-tie in the delegate count (estimates including the leanings of super delegates suggest Clinton may be up by about 50 right now) the Democratic race will go on. So, what's up next on the schedule? And who gets the edge?
Louisiana votes on Saturday with 66 delegates at stake. There are factors favoring both candidates here. It's a closed primary (Democrats only), which favors Clinton. But the state has a fairly large black population, and that favors Obama. Even so, as many as 200,000 mainly black residents displaced by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 have never returned, and that helps Clinton. There has been some recent polling, for what they're worth this year, and they give Clinton an average lead of 3.8%. So figure the bayou state as a tossup leaning Clinton. She could really use a win there because the rest of the upcoming schedule looks pretty good for Obama.
Washington and Nebraka hold caucuses on Saturday. Washington chooses 97 delegates and Nebraska selects 31. This format has strongly favored Obama this year. Only in Nevada has Clinton carried a caucus state; all the rest from Iowa in the beginning to Minnesota, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota and Alaska among the February 5 contests have gone for Obama. The enthusiasm of Obama's backers get them out to what may be long sessions during caucuses where they appeal to the undecideds to join them. There's no recent polling data on these states but there isn't much reason to think that the caucus pattern will change much on Saturday. Expect Obama to carry both handily.
Maine holds caucuses on Sunday with 34 delegates up for grabs. Clinton is popular among Democrats in the Northeast and it's a closed caucus, both of which help her. If you've been paying attention this far you know the caucus format itself, of course, helps Obama. Maine is probably Clinton's best chance to win a caucus anytime soon, so she has a shot here. Call it a tossup.
Then next Tuesday the 12th comes the "Chesapeake Primaries" of Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. Virginia picks 101 delegates and Maryland 99. D. C. will vote overwhelmingly for Obama based on an electorate that's over 80% black. The most recent poll in Virginia was in October, so it's of little value now. For what it's worth it had Clinton at 49, Obama 25, Edwards 10 and Richardson 5. Extrapolating from other states on how the numbers have changed since then I'd expect a narrow win for either side, most likely Obama because it's an open primary where independents can vote. A mid-January poll in Maryland had Obama already up by 13 so he should win there easily, even though the primary is for Democrats only.
The upshot? I see Obama outperforming Clinton by about 66 delegates in the next week's contests, moving him ahead in the national delegate count. Clinton has to make it through this gauntlet and Wisconsin and Hawaii on the 19th with her campaign still intact. She needs to get to the March 4 votes in Texas and Ohio without demoralization setting in. If she can, she can look to recover there. For both sides, managing expectations will be crucial in the weeks ahead.
Louisiana votes on Saturday with 66 delegates at stake. There are factors favoring both candidates here. It's a closed primary (Democrats only), which favors Clinton. But the state has a fairly large black population, and that favors Obama. Even so, as many as 200,000 mainly black residents displaced by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 have never returned, and that helps Clinton. There has been some recent polling, for what they're worth this year, and they give Clinton an average lead of 3.8%. So figure the bayou state as a tossup leaning Clinton. She could really use a win there because the rest of the upcoming schedule looks pretty good for Obama.
Washington and Nebraka hold caucuses on Saturday. Washington chooses 97 delegates and Nebraska selects 31. This format has strongly favored Obama this year. Only in Nevada has Clinton carried a caucus state; all the rest from Iowa in the beginning to Minnesota, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota and Alaska among the February 5 contests have gone for Obama. The enthusiasm of Obama's backers get them out to what may be long sessions during caucuses where they appeal to the undecideds to join them. There's no recent polling data on these states but there isn't much reason to think that the caucus pattern will change much on Saturday. Expect Obama to carry both handily.
Maine holds caucuses on Sunday with 34 delegates up for grabs. Clinton is popular among Democrats in the Northeast and it's a closed caucus, both of which help her. If you've been paying attention this far you know the caucus format itself, of course, helps Obama. Maine is probably Clinton's best chance to win a caucus anytime soon, so she has a shot here. Call it a tossup.
Then next Tuesday the 12th comes the "Chesapeake Primaries" of Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. Virginia picks 101 delegates and Maryland 99. D. C. will vote overwhelmingly for Obama based on an electorate that's over 80% black. The most recent poll in Virginia was in October, so it's of little value now. For what it's worth it had Clinton at 49, Obama 25, Edwards 10 and Richardson 5. Extrapolating from other states on how the numbers have changed since then I'd expect a narrow win for either side, most likely Obama because it's an open primary where independents can vote. A mid-January poll in Maryland had Obama already up by 13 so he should win there easily, even though the primary is for Democrats only.
The upshot? I see Obama outperforming Clinton by about 66 delegates in the next week's contests, moving him ahead in the national delegate count. Clinton has to make it through this gauntlet and Wisconsin and Hawaii on the 19th with her campaign still intact. She needs to get to the March 4 votes in Texas and Ohio without demoralization setting in. If she can, she can look to recover there. For both sides, managing expectations will be crucial in the weeks ahead.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Super Tuesday
America had the biggest primary election in its history today. On the Republican side John McCain solidified the inside track to his party's nomination. On the Democratic side an even split between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ensured that the contest will continue.
Republicans: Mike Huckabee proved he can win in the South. Mitt Romney proved he can win his home states (Massachusetts and Utah, to go along with his previous victory in Michigan) and caucuses in the mountain West. But it was John McCain alone who demonstrated the reach to compete and win across much of the country. He won the big coastal states of California, New York, and New Jersey, the big midwest state of Illinois and narrowly took such border states as Missouri and Oklahoma. He won primaries in states where Republicans have great difficulty prevailing in general elections, but is clearly not the first choice among the party faithful in its Southern electoral bastion.
There is little to preclude McCain's wrapping up the delegates he needs to clinch if his rivals stay in the race in the upcoming weeks. Some polls showed Romney actually ahead in California going into today's voting, yet McCain leads here by 16 points at the time of this post. It's clear that the Huckabee candidacy has worked to McCain's advantage, splitting the social conservative anti-McCain vote.
McCain's biggest challenge looking ahead to the general election campaign will be to inspire these southerners and other social conservatives to overcome their mistrust of him
and go to the trouble of voting in November. A Southern conservative running mate, perhaps Huckabee himself, could help him with that. Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee could help even more.
Democrats: In tennis terms, Clinton held serve. NBC projects today's delegate haul as perhaps 840 for Obama and 838 for Clinton, and you can't cut it much closer than that. There was an enormous amount of positive publicity for Obama in the past week, including high-profile endorsements and polling data that seemed to indicate New Jersey, Massachusetts, and California were in play. Instead, Clinton won all these large states rather easily. She also won big in Arkansas, Tennessee and Oklahoma. Obama piled up a gigantic victory in Illinois and swept a number of midsize and smaller caucus states. The caucus format is what's keeping Obama so competitive so far. Clinton has won most of the big states; Obama has won more states but smaller ones. All in all Clinton won 9 states and Obama 13. This is by design of both camps, and is producing the remarkable closeness of the race.
The lessons to be drawn are that, first, it's just not possible to overestimate the formidable nature of Clinton's candidacy. Even with much apparently going against her, she manages to give as good as she gets. Second, Obama seems to keep threatening to break through and gain the upper hand. With a surge of contributions coming his way and time to concentrate on a few states at a time, he will again be hard to stop. But don't forget the first point.
Next week will come the "Chesapeake Primaries," Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. The best estimates from delegates already won, today's results and the leanings of Democratic "Super Delegates" (such as Members of Congress who get automatic seats at the convention) have Clinton ahead by about 50 overall delegates at the moment. This horse race is still way too close to call and could go on for quite awhile longer, potentially even to the convention to be decided by Super Delegates and/or floor fights over the seatings of the sanctioned Michigan and Florida delegations. Messy developments along those lines would not be good publicity for the party's November campaign drive.
Republicans: Mike Huckabee proved he can win in the South. Mitt Romney proved he can win his home states (Massachusetts and Utah, to go along with his previous victory in Michigan) and caucuses in the mountain West. But it was John McCain alone who demonstrated the reach to compete and win across much of the country. He won the big coastal states of California, New York, and New Jersey, the big midwest state of Illinois and narrowly took such border states as Missouri and Oklahoma. He won primaries in states where Republicans have great difficulty prevailing in general elections, but is clearly not the first choice among the party faithful in its Southern electoral bastion.
There is little to preclude McCain's wrapping up the delegates he needs to clinch if his rivals stay in the race in the upcoming weeks. Some polls showed Romney actually ahead in California going into today's voting, yet McCain leads here by 16 points at the time of this post. It's clear that the Huckabee candidacy has worked to McCain's advantage, splitting the social conservative anti-McCain vote.
McCain's biggest challenge looking ahead to the general election campaign will be to inspire these southerners and other social conservatives to overcome their mistrust of him
and go to the trouble of voting in November. A Southern conservative running mate, perhaps Huckabee himself, could help him with that. Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee could help even more.
Democrats: In tennis terms, Clinton held serve. NBC projects today's delegate haul as perhaps 840 for Obama and 838 for Clinton, and you can't cut it much closer than that. There was an enormous amount of positive publicity for Obama in the past week, including high-profile endorsements and polling data that seemed to indicate New Jersey, Massachusetts, and California were in play. Instead, Clinton won all these large states rather easily. She also won big in Arkansas, Tennessee and Oklahoma. Obama piled up a gigantic victory in Illinois and swept a number of midsize and smaller caucus states. The caucus format is what's keeping Obama so competitive so far. Clinton has won most of the big states; Obama has won more states but smaller ones. All in all Clinton won 9 states and Obama 13. This is by design of both camps, and is producing the remarkable closeness of the race.
The lessons to be drawn are that, first, it's just not possible to overestimate the formidable nature of Clinton's candidacy. Even with much apparently going against her, she manages to give as good as she gets. Second, Obama seems to keep threatening to break through and gain the upper hand. With a surge of contributions coming his way and time to concentrate on a few states at a time, he will again be hard to stop. But don't forget the first point.
Next week will come the "Chesapeake Primaries," Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. The best estimates from delegates already won, today's results and the leanings of Democratic "Super Delegates" (such as Members of Congress who get automatic seats at the convention) have Clinton ahead by about 50 overall delegates at the moment. This horse race is still way too close to call and could go on for quite awhile longer, potentially even to the convention to be decided by Super Delegates and/or floor fights over the seatings of the sanctioned Michigan and Florida delegations. Messy developments along those lines would not be good publicity for the party's November campaign drive.
Monday, February 4, 2008
War Costs
Here are some recently computed costs for America's wars in 2007 dollars. Iraq-Afghanistan has just passed Vietnam on the list. These are direct costs.
World War II $3.2 trillion
Iraq-Afghanistan $695.7 billion
Vietnam $670 billion
World War I $364 billion
Korea $295 billion
Persian Gulf $94 billion
Civil $81 billion
Spanish-American $7 billion
Revolutionary $4 billion
Mexican $2 billion
1812 $1 billion
World War II $3.2 trillion
Iraq-Afghanistan $695.7 billion
Vietnam $670 billion
World War I $364 billion
Korea $295 billion
Persian Gulf $94 billion
Civil $81 billion
Spanish-American $7 billion
Revolutionary $4 billion
Mexican $2 billion
1812 $1 billion
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Straight Talk Express?
Sen. John McCain has a reputation as an exponent of telling it like it is. For months he toured Iowa and New Hampshire in a big motor coach emblazoned with the monicker "Straight Talk Express." McCain effectively derailed the campaign of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by painting him as a waffler and panderer, a politician whose convictions blew with the wind and changed to fit the mood of the constituency he was addressing on any particular day. Given Romney's record, it wasn't so hard to make that case. But in what is certainly a far more skillfull application of the art, McCain has managed to avoid the tag himself. For, strange as it may seem, McCain has proved quite the master at political shape-shifting and has up to now emerged nearly unscathed from the process. That is likely to change.
That the Democrats are keenly aware of McCain's vulnerability on this matter was revealed in the recent Clinton-Obama debate in California. Sen. Barack Obama provided a preview of something we are going to hear a lot more in the general election when he made the observation that it looked like a few wheels had come off the Straight Talk Express. The needle drew hearty laughter from the Democratic crowd. There is no doubt that same needle will be sharpened to surgical dimensions and used with abandon by Obama or Sen. Hillary Clinton once their own battle is concluded.
Some of the Arizona Senator's flip-flops include the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law (he now advocates revising it), his vote against the Bush tax cuts and their extension (which he now proposes to make permanent), his description of Moral Majority evangelicals as "agents of intolerance" (he now joins hands with them at every opportunity), his membership in the bipartisan "gang of 14" group on judicial appointments (he now pledges to appoint only judges acceptable to social conservatives), and his support for the recently defeated comprehensive immigration bill (he now talks of nothing but border security.) He even sometimes says he would today vote against his own bills if he had it to do over again. In every case, he began with a moderate position and then moved to the right to solidify his standing among Republican primary voters.
The far right media, led by Rush Limbaugh, continue to rail against his former apostasy and do not trust his recent return to conservative orthodoxy. More moderate Republicans are not necessarily pleased with some of his earlier positions but have correctly concluded he is the most electable and have resolved to follow McCain's mother's advice to "hold their noses" and vote for him anyway. Democrats are pleased that the likely Republican nominee has, in the past, shown occasional openness to some of their views and may be willing to deal if he's elected. Even so, they won't be reluctant at all to inspire the laughter of independents by pointing to the self-described straight talker's predeliction for political acrobatics.
Any way you slice it, there ought to be some fun in the offing once Clinton and Obama get through with each other and the winner starts going after the man from Arizona in earnest.
That the Democrats are keenly aware of McCain's vulnerability on this matter was revealed in the recent Clinton-Obama debate in California. Sen. Barack Obama provided a preview of something we are going to hear a lot more in the general election when he made the observation that it looked like a few wheels had come off the Straight Talk Express. The needle drew hearty laughter from the Democratic crowd. There is no doubt that same needle will be sharpened to surgical dimensions and used with abandon by Obama or Sen. Hillary Clinton once their own battle is concluded.
Some of the Arizona Senator's flip-flops include the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law (he now advocates revising it), his vote against the Bush tax cuts and their extension (which he now proposes to make permanent), his description of Moral Majority evangelicals as "agents of intolerance" (he now joins hands with them at every opportunity), his membership in the bipartisan "gang of 14" group on judicial appointments (he now pledges to appoint only judges acceptable to social conservatives), and his support for the recently defeated comprehensive immigration bill (he now talks of nothing but border security.) He even sometimes says he would today vote against his own bills if he had it to do over again. In every case, he began with a moderate position and then moved to the right to solidify his standing among Republican primary voters.
The far right media, led by Rush Limbaugh, continue to rail against his former apostasy and do not trust his recent return to conservative orthodoxy. More moderate Republicans are not necessarily pleased with some of his earlier positions but have correctly concluded he is the most electable and have resolved to follow McCain's mother's advice to "hold their noses" and vote for him anyway. Democrats are pleased that the likely Republican nominee has, in the past, shown occasional openness to some of their views and may be willing to deal if he's elected. Even so, they won't be reluctant at all to inspire the laughter of independents by pointing to the self-described straight talker's predeliction for political acrobatics.
Any way you slice it, there ought to be some fun in the offing once Clinton and Obama get through with each other and the winner starts going after the man from Arizona in earnest.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Crunch Time for Clinton and Obama
February 5 fast approaches, with great stakes riding for the two remaining Democratic contenders. Last night's debate, bathed primarily (sorry, couldn't resist that one) in good fellowship between Senators Obama and Clinton, had to come as a relief for party loyalists. The respective campaigns avoided the scorched earth tactics of South Carolina which threatened to drag down the general election prospects of whichever candidate gains the nomination. Both directed their main salvoes at the Republicans. It's clear both senators concluded they like where they are in the race and had a lot to lose by going negative. Clinton figured she can hang on to what remains of her lead and Obama determined he can rely on his momentum to carry him over the top. It was no time to upset the apple cart. So where do things stand on the verge of Super Tuesday?
Obama currently has 63 delegates committed to him. Clinton has 48. John Edwards has 26. There will be 4049 delegates at the convention, with 2025 needed for the nomination. Clinton appears to have reasonable leads in seven February 5 states with a total of 1149 delegates. Obama looks to have the upper hand in eight states with 539 delegates. Another seven states with 376 delegates could go either way. The Democrats have no "winner take all" states; everything will be allotted proportionally or by formulas determined by the vote in each congressional district. So it's unlikely anyone will be able to deliver a knockout blow in the delegate count. That may be a different story in terms of expectations, especially if Obama loses closely in Clinton states and wins the majority of the smaller tossup states. She needs to come away with a delegate majority on Tuesday or her campaign will be perceived to be in free fall.
Clinton Strongholds: Fortunately for her, Hillary Clinton leads in most of the larger states. New York (281), Massachusetts (121) and New Jersey (127) will report early. Clinton should roll in all three. If not she is in deep trouble. Tennessee (85) should come in next. It's one of the few places where she appears to be widening her lead, probably because of the absence of John Edwards. Arkansas (47) and Oklahoma (47) look solid next. Finally comes the big prize of California (441). Hillary is devoting 2 1/2 days here, a signal of how important it is to her electoral math. It may also be evidence of what I see on the ground: Obama is gaining. It may just be possible for him to pull an upset in the Golden State. Don't be surprised if it happens. And if it does it will be a body blow to her prospects for the later contests. California has been a Clinton bastion since 1992, and cracks in support here may portend imminent implosion the longer the campaign goes on.
Obama Strongholds: Obama is surging in Georgia (103) and Alabama (60). They should be declared early for him, providing some good news to offset the expected Clinton triumphs in the Northeast. His next solid win should be in Illinois (185), and it will come by an annihilating majority. Minnesota (88) will soon follow, and North Dakota (23), Kansas (41) and Idaho will go into his column as the polls close farther west. Alaska (18) will chime in after most folks in the East have gone to bed. Clinton will win more big states, but Obama ought to take more of his wins by larger margins.
Tossups: Look for Connecticut (60) as an early bellweather. Obama has closed quickly here and may already have the edge. If he loses it may indicate things are going according to the Clinton game plan. I think he'll win it. Delaware (23) is anybody's guess. Next watch Missouri (88). That's unpredictable due to uncertainty over what Edwards' numerous former supporters will do. Colorado (71) appears trending for Barack. Finally will come the Mountain West states of Utah (29), New Mexico (38) and Arizona (67). Obama is making a concerted effort to court Native Americans in Arizona and New Mexico to offset Clinton's expected strength among Hispanics there.
All in all, Clinton's strategy is more concentrated, trying to run up delegates in the large population states where her support is strongest. And make no mistake, she will have to win the majority of delegates or the air will go out of her campaign. Obama's strategy is more spread out. He will try to win a larger number of states, especially "purple" states, which will help him in the electability argument for the next round. With 2064 delegates in play, over 40% of the entire convention, the result will be enormous. But given the Democratic Party's proportionality rules it's not likely either will win more than 1250 of these. The mathematical race for delegates will not be decided February 5, though a strong showing by either could place him or her in the presumptive victor role now enjoyed by John McCain on the Republican side.
Obama currently has 63 delegates committed to him. Clinton has 48. John Edwards has 26. There will be 4049 delegates at the convention, with 2025 needed for the nomination. Clinton appears to have reasonable leads in seven February 5 states with a total of 1149 delegates. Obama looks to have the upper hand in eight states with 539 delegates. Another seven states with 376 delegates could go either way. The Democrats have no "winner take all" states; everything will be allotted proportionally or by formulas determined by the vote in each congressional district. So it's unlikely anyone will be able to deliver a knockout blow in the delegate count. That may be a different story in terms of expectations, especially if Obama loses closely in Clinton states and wins the majority of the smaller tossup states. She needs to come away with a delegate majority on Tuesday or her campaign will be perceived to be in free fall.
Clinton Strongholds: Fortunately for her, Hillary Clinton leads in most of the larger states. New York (281), Massachusetts (121) and New Jersey (127) will report early. Clinton should roll in all three. If not she is in deep trouble. Tennessee (85) should come in next. It's one of the few places where she appears to be widening her lead, probably because of the absence of John Edwards. Arkansas (47) and Oklahoma (47) look solid next. Finally comes the big prize of California (441). Hillary is devoting 2 1/2 days here, a signal of how important it is to her electoral math. It may also be evidence of what I see on the ground: Obama is gaining. It may just be possible for him to pull an upset in the Golden State. Don't be surprised if it happens. And if it does it will be a body blow to her prospects for the later contests. California has been a Clinton bastion since 1992, and cracks in support here may portend imminent implosion the longer the campaign goes on.
Obama Strongholds: Obama is surging in Georgia (103) and Alabama (60). They should be declared early for him, providing some good news to offset the expected Clinton triumphs in the Northeast. His next solid win should be in Illinois (185), and it will come by an annihilating majority. Minnesota (88) will soon follow, and North Dakota (23), Kansas (41) and Idaho will go into his column as the polls close farther west. Alaska (18) will chime in after most folks in the East have gone to bed. Clinton will win more big states, but Obama ought to take more of his wins by larger margins.
Tossups: Look for Connecticut (60) as an early bellweather. Obama has closed quickly here and may already have the edge. If he loses it may indicate things are going according to the Clinton game plan. I think he'll win it. Delaware (23) is anybody's guess. Next watch Missouri (88). That's unpredictable due to uncertainty over what Edwards' numerous former supporters will do. Colorado (71) appears trending for Barack. Finally will come the Mountain West states of Utah (29), New Mexico (38) and Arizona (67). Obama is making a concerted effort to court Native Americans in Arizona and New Mexico to offset Clinton's expected strength among Hispanics there.
All in all, Clinton's strategy is more concentrated, trying to run up delegates in the large population states where her support is strongest. And make no mistake, she will have to win the majority of delegates or the air will go out of her campaign. Obama's strategy is more spread out. He will try to win a larger number of states, especially "purple" states, which will help him in the electability argument for the next round. With 2064 delegates in play, over 40% of the entire convention, the result will be enormous. But given the Democratic Party's proportionality rules it's not likely either will win more than 1250 of these. The mathematical race for delegates will not be decided February 5, though a strong showing by either could place him or her in the presumptive victor role now enjoyed by John McCain on the Republican side.
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