Democrats often like to say that their party is the party of the future and the Republican Party is the party of the past. An interesting statistical analysis in the Wall Street Journal shows that the adage is pretty close to being literally true. In the newly-elected 114th Congress the population profile of the typical Republican-represented House district mirrors the American ethnic profile of 1995, while the typical district represented by a Democrat looks very much like what the Census Bureau anticipates the American population will be in 2045.
See the graphs below. Click here to go to the original. Blue is the white share of the population, gray is African-Americans, green Latinos and purple Asians. Today's GOP district averages 74% white, 8% black, 12% Latino and 3% Asian. For the Dems it's 49% white, 17% African-American, 23% Latino and 7% Asian.
1995 America was 74% white, 12% black, 10% Latino and 4% Asian, remarkably close to the present average makeup of the typical Republican district. 2045 America, as the Census Bureau projects current population trends, will be 49% white, 13% black, 25% Latino and 8% Asian. That's close to spot-on for how the typical Democratic district shakes out right now.
The good news for Democrats is that these population changes promise to swamp the Republican Party in a demographic tidal wave. The good news for Republicans is that they may have some time to change their policy approaches before this effect fully sets in. As it is now, their strategy appears to be to double down on pleasing their white conservative base no matter how much it antagonizes minority citizens.
Wall Street Journal Washington Wire
Democrats and Republicans in the 114th
Congress represent two very different Americas that show a 50-year gap.
Republicans represent a group of voters that look like the country in
1995. Democrats represent a group of voters that look like the country
as it is projected to look in 2045.
White non-Hisp.
Black non-Hisp.
Hispanic
Asian
2045 America
50
Asian
100
114th House GOP
114th House Dems
1995 America
2045 America
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